Wednesday 30 April 2008

30/4

Simple day -Dark Missile to place only - came 2nd . YAkimov won at 2/5. 1-0 at half time - no goal in the first 10 minutes , and under 2.5 goals

Simple yet profitable.!

I noticed, with hindsight, Morinqua winning at good odds. This is a speedball and is worth following I think.

245 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Makaaseb, 9/2 Kay Es Jay, Rinterval, Rosaleen, 7/1 Bramaputra, 10/1 My Aunt Fanny, 50/1 Applesnap .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Connections clearly retain faith in MAKAASEB and the Irish 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes entry can make amends for her Rockfel disappointment

Early price move for Rosaleen making the horse clear 2nd fav. Dutch wth Makaaseb or place only given 7 runners should offer some good odds?

320
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cesare, 9/4 Royal Oath, 4/1 Don´t Panic, 8/1 Ordnance Row, 12/1 Caldra, 20/1 Drumfire .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This will probably develop into a battle between CESARE and Royal Oath who both have a good record on this track. The top weight was value for more than his length-and-a-half winning margin over the Hunt Cup hero in a Group 2 here last summer after encountering trouble in running and his sharp turn of foot can prove decisive today even though 7lb worse off.[AC]

A class 1 race so the odds should accurately reflect chances. Cesare and Royal oath are dutchable, but the Betfair market indicates that don't panic should be competitive - if you want to speculate on the of chance there is an upset, then level stakes the front 3 leaves a big payout on Don't Panic


BALLINROBE

Again look out for Weld/Smullen and Aiden O'Brien
535 - Alaneed


GREAT LEIGHS
520
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Aromatherapy, Tableau Vivant, 6/1 Illusion, 9/1 Totem Flower, 10/1 Mignonette, 12/1 Dolcetto, 16/1 Sabancaya, 20/1 Spiritofthestorm, 25/1 Let Me Pass, 33/1 Nisbah, 100/1 Bunty Malenoir .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AROMATHERAPY showed sufficient promise as a juvenile to suggest she's capable of making it third time lucky on her return. Tableau Vivant is an obvious danger on form and, of the newcomers, Illusion is most interesting

The front 2 are 9/4 with 2 other horses at 6/1 and the rest perceived outsiders. Given the maiden status of this race, an each way punt on Illusion and Totem flower - hopefully one will place and both will be able to rough up the market leaders

550
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Dial House, 7/2 Mrs Kipling, 5/1 Barbee, 8/1 White Shift, 12/1 Lonsdale Lad, 20/1 Ready To Prime, 50/1 Twos And Eights .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The promising THE DIAL HOUSE will find this less competitive than his encouraging AW debut assignment and can use his experience edge to get the job done.[BDO

Money for Mrs Kipling - curently 2/1 -prices 2.04 for the dial house and 3.1 for Mrs Kipling. Using fAIRBOT I can dutch these 2 horses - or with level stakes leave a marginal gain on the Dial House and a big payout on Mrs Kipling

Soft ground at Pontefract would make me keen to lay Art Princess in the maiden in the first if odds are short enough

FOOTY
Any reason to desert under 2.5 goals in the Liverpool Chelsea match ? Chelsea at home ,yes, don't lose...?

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