27/4

One thing to learn yesterday - don't be scared to back just the place - paid off yesterday where backing to win would have produced lost stake. All in all a decent day for me, especially with Caen drawing 2-2 with Lyon - another shortie lay in the bag . I was laughing when I saw the HAmmers 2-0 up and 2-2 half time - I kissed my lay goodnight then King Kev's Toon got me back on winning ways!
Chelsea - unders trade - again should have been profitable dependent on time - again a time v profit thing, BUT YET AGAIN CHELSEA DO NOT LOSE AT HOME - a licence to print money - imagine 100+ games without losing at home - keep laying opponents until that time they lose at home.
Key factor for me was a profit on the day in a round about way mind! Generally spot on with the gee gees - a rarety on Saturdays, and all in all aprofit on the footy

225 GOWRAN
Again like last week, concentration on O'Brien and Weld/Smullen
Giant among Men each way -but 1st choice jock Murtagh not on board

255 - Ox/Kinane on Be Smart to place

Could be a day for Oxx/Kinane instead here with Weld /Smullen conspicuous by their absence

LONGCHAMP
320
Duke of MArmalade tells us where O'Brien/Murtagh are - no prices available but an obvious place contender

320 NAAS
Silver Shoon sees Weld/Smullen in action although preference would be for their each way price contenders - this is a shortie

355 - JEalous Guy at a more appealing price each way

430
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Yeats, 7/2 Red Moloney, 7/1 Alfie Flits, 8/1 Nick´s Nikita, 12/1 Lounaos, 20/1 Scotch Bonnet, 66/1 Dancesowell.

O'BRien/Heffernan on Yeats - soft ground a concern as the horse seems to favour a quicker surface -Red Maloney breathing down his neck and if priced well enough could be a good place only bet in the stead of the jolly. 1.6at present to place in an illiquid market where market forces haven't taken shape, this knocks off .20 profit on Yeats to win and positions us favourably should soft ground find teh class act out. Oh Boy, it's difficult to go against a Ballydoyle fav of this stature!

500 MAryallen SPirit for Weld/Smullen again at 2/1 -can be backed with Angel Story and Fikrah to level stakes although the 3.65 on offer for the win is reasonable enough

530 - both pairings take up 1st and 2nd here in the market and level stakes backing of king of Westphalia at 4.3 and Almohalek at 3.6 can be achieved.

600 - Knowing Wink and Tiffany Diamond each way

It would be extremely naive to think that blanket backing of O'BRien and Weld/SMullen horses is going to profit daily .Should there be a surprise big priced win early I will take it and leave.

Ground is a concern but I think that over the course of a season we should achieve a decent return as there have been 12/1 and bigger winners form these 2 combinations in the past

FOOTY

Nice lay of Lyon at 1/3 capped off a reasonable day
Celtic v Rangers -I will lay first goal odds 1-10 minutes today in the hope it'll be tight early on . Difficult to read today for me but advantage for Celtic given Rangers game congestion 4.9 is a big big to lay Rangers but could be the way to go here in the hope Celtic score first at home against a Rangers side who must be feeling it surely.

Football is difficult to predict as was seen by yesterday's scores at this time of the season.
Everton v Villa I would back under 2.5 goals to trade. Both need the win and this is not a pointless game so a tight affair - Cahill still out

I'm going to try under 2.5 goals in the Inter v Cagliari game -Cagliari seem to be able to hold their own against Inter. -again to trade

CONCLUSION - too many shorties for the O'BRien/Smullen bets today and softish ground may be a problem.