Sunday 20 April 2008

21/4

Hope you noticed the mistake yesterday - Rangers game was NOT SPL game so my analysis was pointless - it was a cup game.
Eslewhere the IRish was superb, with Weld Smullen obviously worth following as well as the odd O'Brien selections - what chance profits through the season - Murtagh and Smullen will be vying for the Irish flat jockey's championship so judicious backing of selected horses each way should pay off

Newcastle scored 2 before half time so the over 2.5 goals trade was simple!

The treble bet - Villareal won - Parma did not and I'm not too confortable chosing teams like Parma that I have no interest in and don't know their history - perhaps wait for premiership/championship trebles?

Heavy at Hexham - no ta!
PLUMPTON
220
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Swordsman, 13/8 I Have Dreamed, 9/2 How´s Business, 10/1 Forest Silver, 16/1 Lysander´s Quest, 66/1 Delightful Touch, War Zone, 100/1 Homespun Magic, Surely Keen .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Charlie Man sent out three winners in the space of two days last week and HOW'S BUSINESS could be another for him, getting plenty of weight off her apparent dangers and now sent over a trip that should benefit, given how well she stayed on the Flat.[AWJ]
An each way price, worth following Spotlight at 9/2 given length of race

210 Pontefract
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Transcentral, 7/2 Camelot Communion, 5/1 Asian Tale, 8/1 Rosabee, Sale Or Return, 12/1 Orphaned Annie, 14/1 Clumber Place ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Camelot Communion looks the part on paper but with the stable struggling for Flat winners, this could be left to the one in the field with experience. TRANSCENTRAL isn't very big but she has done enough in her two runs to date to think she could win an early-season event

Debutants largely here bar Transcentral who should place - I'm not too confident on the win as Sale or Return is currently 7/2 ( see the price above!)
Sale or return each way is the value alternative if the early price move is accurate

640 SEDGEFIELD
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WEE FORBEES (nap) is impossible to oppose in a weak affair, his opponents having plenty to find despite his double penalty. Rossin Gold may be his nearest pursuer.
"Impossible to oppose" - one to back and monitor in running

710
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Deuteronomy, 8/1 Stark Raven, Whistle Blowing, 9/1 Hall Of Flame, 10/1 Northern Vic, 12/1 Baawrah, Desperate Dex, 14/1 Flemen Loon, Nelliedonethat, Young Yozza, 16/1 Byways Boy, 20/1 Wild Chimes, 33/1 Vicious Prince, 50/1 Chirapatre, Versus .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Deuteronomy's good recent form counts for plenty in a grim contest like this and it may prove madness to desert him despite his climb in the handicap. Even so, the vote goes to STARK RAVEN, who shaped as though there could be more to come from him over a longer trip when second over 3m at Carlisle recently. Northern Vic, a half-brother to his stable's good chaser Keiran, has always been a long-term project and showed signs of life last time but there's a nagging doubt about the trip.[

potential price gapper but current 5/2 hints at each way alternatives and Stark Raven has been cut a couple of points to 6/1 BUT a big field and not an ideal betting medium

WINDSOR
625
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Sundowner, 9/2 Adversity, 5/1 Silver Rime, 11/2 My Shadow, 7/1 The Which Doctor, 10/1 Internationaldebut, 12/1 Bencoolen, 14/1 Legislation, 20/1 Bonny Rose, 25/1 Artsu, Dusty Moon, 33/1 Mick´s Dancer .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some useful prospects in opposition. Preference is for SUNDOWNER whose Lingfield maiden success is already working out and who goes handicapping on an interesting mark. Both My Shadow and Silver Rime bring solid handicap form to the table, but the stamina of the returning Adversity is not copperbottomed.[

Internationaldebut each way - I don't know why but at 20/1 worth an interest

725
BETTING FORECAST: Evs French Riviera, 5/1 Woolfall Treasure, 7/1 Polmaily, 8/1 Bushman, Sarando, 16/1 Prairie Storm, 25/1 Danse The Blues, Dr Brass, Fiume, Princess Flame, 33/1 Deep Waters, Eureka Moment, Road To Hucking, 50/1 Asian Classic, 100/1 Double R .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was a good deal to like about the Nottingham debut of FRENCH RIVIERA (nap) last November and this Dante and Derby entry looks a useful middle-distance prospect who can take this on his way to better things.

Price gapper in a maiden not the ideal scenario - future entries highly impressive and hint at something special.Why is Aisan Classic currently 22/1 ? Hmmm surely the value bet incase this is a market move ( has to remain at this price mind you at the off (725!)

3 into 1
SUNDAY - Souwester winner at 4/1
19/4
3.30 Ban: SCOTLAND YARD lost 2/1
3.50 Thi: WI DUD 5th 5/6

Again I am looking into odds on shots for 3 into 1 as postential lays using fibonnaci loss retrieval a la gofibonacci

18/4
2.20 Ayr: ASIAN ROYALE 1st 7/4
3.15 New: BOUGUEREAU 2nd 11/4
2.00 Thi: BAHAMIAN BABE 1st 4/6
7.00 Tau: WARSAW PACT 1st 10/11

3 into 1
300 Hexham Classic chic
520 Plumpton Wotchalike
640 Sedgefield Wee forbees

Over evens preferred - odds on has been poor hence my interest in laying

FOOTY
Nantes playing tonight - will be a very tight game against Angers and a lay of Angers to cover the draw I think - Nantes cannot afford to lose this match -they must take advantage of Le HAvre's recentt slip ups

Elsewhere the Rocket to win the snooker looks reasonable enough - it was 7/2





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