16/4

A half hearted day yesterday with uninspiring racing from my perspective - 2 each ways and a non runner - one faller and the other unplaced at 18/1. With all the double figure odds going in in the last few days, it just shows how tricky the racing has been
Beverley begins with a debutant 5 furlong maiden- hmmmm-more please!
There is a noted draw bias at Beverley so this should be accounted for in sprint distances (check out POSTDATA)
This is followed by a 17 runner seller over 1 mile - what chance do we have? - and then another 2 year old debutant maiden!
355
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Blue Spinnaker, 10/1 Amanda Carter, Harry The Hawk, 14/1 Keisha Kayleigh, Nelsons Column, 16/1 Zain, 20/1 Capped For Victory, Karmest, Wednesdays Boy, 25/1 Farne Island, Grethel, Intavac Boy, 33/1 Gala Sunday ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from BLUE SPINNAKER, who landed a bit of a touch on his reappearance and a 6lb penalty is unlikely to stop him, especially as he's again likely to get the run of the race from a favourable draw. It won't be surprising to see Nelsons Column fare a good deal better than on his reappearance back over this trip.[RY]
Price gapper here - 4/6 - 10/1 is significant - early market not up yet to verify any rivalry. - "hard to get away from" - 13/14 tips - 5 days since last run - distance winner - top RPR- top topspeed - postdata selection

Looks a good price gapper -I only hope the 4/6 remains

430
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 William Blake, 11/2 Dubai Petal, 7/1 Thunderstruck, 10/1 Flying Time, 12/1 Welcome Return, 14/1 Tiger´s Rocket, 16/1 Shaloo Diamond .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of unexposed sorts but nothing appeals more than WILLIAM BLAKE (nap), who showed a good attitude when following up his Southwell win on his handicap debut at Lingfield last time. This full-brother to the smart 1m2f performer Into The Dark (best on good and softer ground) should have no problems with these conditions for his turf debut and he's open to bags of improvement.
Another potential price gapper - BUT debuting on turf and on softish ground. Worth a punt I think although I will keep an eye on Dubai Petal before the off as he looks like he's fancied and may be a better value each way alternative (albeit 7 runners) - are you convinced by this turf debutant and the potential softer ground? this is a sticking point when considering backing such a shortie - potential dutch with break even on William Blake incase the turf proves troublesome - simple level stakes ensures nice profit on Dubai with small profit on William

440 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Joe Lively, 7/4 Petit Lord, 9/2 Beat The Boys, 12/1 Michael Muck, 25/1 Palmers Peak, 40/1 The Langer .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Joe Lively is the form choice but there is always the chance that his exertions may take their toll so PETIT LORD, fresh to the fray and quite promising last autumn, is preferred.[JN]
LEvel stakes the front 2 loads profit onto joe Lively

455 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Virtual, 5/2 Masaalek, 7/2 Skadrak, 6/1 Otaared, 20/1 El Duende, Slugger O´Toole, 25/1 Brother Barry, Style Icon, 33/1 Timbalier, 50/1 Kuriyama .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A quartet of well-bred lightly raced colts from leading yards look the principals in a race in which the betting promises to tell plenty more. Masaalek, Otaared and Skadrak (in that order) are all of interest but preference is for 2,000 Guineas possible VIRTUAL, who showed plenty of ability in two C&D maidens last autumn.[MCu]
A 4 horse race - I'll chance Otaared each way as the biggest priced of the 4


Again uninspiring racing today and even the price gappers I am a little hesitant with - you get weeks like this where, personally, the opportunities are not as evident as Feb and March. Patience is needed.

3 into 1
If we get rid of backing odds on shots and over 3/1 shots, we negate 20+ points loss so this is something I will follow. Any qualifier now must be priced between evens and 3/1. This is the price band where all level stakes profit has come from.
A 46% strike rate just doesn't work with odds on shots!
430 BEVERLEY - WILLIAM BLAKE
750WOLVES - BRIDGE OF FERMOY

FOOTY
Old Firm Derby likely to be as tight as the last game and under 2.5 goals to trade looks a viable option. Celtic came out of their recent slump with a thrashing of Motherwell - a return to form or a flash in the pan?

Interesting article from Racing Post re Queen of the South's recent win over Aberdeen - will that affect their remaining games in the league? At evens they're layable this evening based solely on the RP "experts"

I got an interesting system from the betfair forums along the lines of backing 3 home teams in a treble if odds for the first 2 are 1/2 ( or 4/7 ,4/9 if 1/2 not there) and the 1/3rd team at 1/3 (or equivalent)
This treble is priced at 3.00 decimal odds - 2/1 so I'll try it with Greuther Furth, Dinamo Zagreb and PSG and I won't analyse these games but Greuther Furth ( a German waiter?)
The author goes on to say if this treble loses then loss retrieval staking should be employed up to 2 more bets ( 3 in total) - I suppose this is reasonable enough - our only hope is the 1/2 and 1/3's represent solid odds compiling from the bookies

Overs in 5 of Roma's last 6 matches signal strength in attack. More tonight? I'll back over 2.5 goals to trade as well as chance Roma/Roma half time full time as they are at home