Tuesday, 22 April 2008

22/4

Nice start with How's business winning - Pontefract maiden - 5 furlongs - what was I thinking getting involved? Transcentral hinted at a lay in the live market - out to 10/3 from 13/8 betting forecast in a race won by the outsider! Wee Forbees won easily allowing back at 1.47 and lay at 1.11 for me

Like Transcentral the difference bettween the betting forecast favourite Deuteronomy' betting forecast price and price at race start hinted at a lay and I was right to take him on. Alas I was not adventurous in my each way pick

Internationaldebut 6th - 12/1 ASian Classic out to 66/1 from the early morning move meant he no longer qualified as a price gapper.

One 3 into 1 at evens or better pulled up - another odds on loser and Wee forbees winning at 1.47 - this is why I'm keen to get some kind of laying in place for these odds on shots

325 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Hereford Boy, 3/1 For Life, 9/2 Pretty Miss, 6/1 Idle Power, 7/1 Zowington, 8/1 Corridor Creeper, 14/1 Spanish Ace .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A back-to-form Zowington could prove troublesome while Pretty Miss has plenty in her favour if ready to roll first time back, yet the solid option has to be HEREFORD BOY (nap), who was only nailed by a bang-in-form rival at Windsor last week and can compete off the same mark.[AWJ]


Hereford Boy to place - 2 the place in a 7 runner event should ensure reasonable odds



PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Fiveforthree, Jered, 5/1 Cork All Star, 7/1 Made In Taipan, 8/1 Salford City, 12/1 Migmatite, 16/1 Quinmaster, 20/1 Golden Grace, 33/1 Storm Plan .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JERED won in fine style at Fairyhouse and may have too much toe for the Cheltenham winner Fiveforthree, who has had the benefit of having had a very light campaign and should not therefore be a candidate for the burn-out factor that is often influential at this meeting.

Fiveforthree to place

Anyone fancy a 25 runner lady riders event in the first - no? Ok!

450
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Pomme Tiepy, 7/2 Air Force One, Finger Onthe Pulse, 5/1 Sky´s The Limit, 7/1 Notre Pere, 10/1 Ballycullen Boy, 200/1 Narrackses .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Willie Mullins has exploited the weight concessions with his imports from France throughout the season, and POMME TIEPY can add to her tally here by accounting for Air Force One, who looks a big danger on his Reynoldstown run.

2 strong market leaders and if prices are available , I will dutch both with preference for the Mulllins horse pomme Tiepy

350 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Kensington, 7/2 Dudley Docker, Hits Only Jude, 4/1 Tencendur, 10/1 Byron Bay, 12/1 Thunderousapplause, 14/1 Mr Wolf ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Back under quicker conditions on a track that will suit, TENCENDUR can add to this month's Catterick success. Dudley Docker is potentially well treated back on turf but has done all his winning in double-figure fields and a bigger threat may be the penalised Kensington.[AC]

A 4 horse race - Tencendur each way for me

500
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Pertemps Networks, 5/1 Top Spec, 7/1 Just Intersky, 8/1 Black Falcon, Calzaghe, 10/1 Marquee, 20/1 Sularno, 25/1 Old Romney .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PERTEMPS NETWORKS translated his recent hurdle progress back on to the Flat when winning in good style at Newcastle last time. Faster ground is a definite concern here, but he could still be well handicapped and is hard to oppose. The main dangers are Just Intersky and Calzaghe.[DM]

Coincidence bet with CAlzaghe? Pertemps Network has some ifs and buts and in an apprentice ridden race may be worth taking on. Interestingly, from the same stable, Old Romney is a big price - stable plot? Hmmm don't know. I'll stick with Calzaghe each way

520
TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Possol, 11/4 Tramantano, 7/2 La Grande Villez, 6/1 Muhtenbar, 40/1 Swift Sailor, 50/1 Keltic Moon, 100/1 Clockers Corner, Somewin, 200/1 Bluecoat, Superfling .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A classy race for the course and assuming that POSSOL's run of narrow defeats is more the result of bad luck than any lack of desire on his part, he is given the vote. Tramantano looks the most obvious threat.[JN]

La Grande Villez is a course and distance winner on this most difficult of finishes and with the same jockey who won on him may be backable each way as it's a 4 horse race judging by the betting forecast

700
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Kerriemuir Lass, 100/30 Dancing Dasi, 7/2 Summer Of Love, Tambourine Ridge, 20/1 Ishismart, 33/1 Smarties Party, 50/1 Quamerone, Radar Love, 66/1 Fair Coppelia, Julatten, Maud´s Cat, 100/1 Cove Mountain, Ellerslie Lisa, Mystik Megan, 200/1 Darnay´s Breeze, Notoverdear .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dancing Dasi and Tambourine Ridge are very well served by a stiffer test of stamina and are expected to find C&D winner KERRIEMUIR LASS (nap) too lively at this trip. Summer Of Love could prove most dangerous if blinkers have the desired effect

Another course and distance winner in Kerriemuir Lass in a 4 horse race(although the field is big) I'll chance Kerrie here (preference for the place only) in the win market to monitor in running

3 into 1
250 Folk - Copperbottomed
250 Folk
Copperbottomed
250 Folk
Copperbottomed


FOOTY

Lay of Angers came off with a 0-0 - these French boys seem to be bottling it at the end of the season so laying opponents to cover the draw seems to ensure a return

The big one this evening and with plenty at stake what chance under 2.5 goals (again!) Surely looks the obvious bet . Neutral as well probably safer.

BEtfair is unavailable at time of writing - I wanted to look at the half time scores market and perhaps 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 dutch if prices allow.

How tight will this game be? Liverpool at home in the Champions LEague seem extremely effective -will we get anything from backing under 1.5 goals , again with an eye on trading.

Other markets which interest me include correct score - again I will look a bit later on at the 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 ,2-0, 1-1 and see if prices allow for a correct score dutch







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