Tuesday 8 April 2008

8/4

You see the value of personal opinion over mechanical systems - 3 into 1 has been terrible. Sir Harry ormesher - 2 mile 5 in soft/heavy ground at 1.10 - you're having a giraffe.
What a great start to the day and for £10 liability I got a nice £100 out of it and called it a day - it would be silly not to!REmember, there is no such thing as a sure thing - ever! The loss was, if you read the race analysis, down to the ground, ure and simple so this is something to bear in mind in the future.

RObbers Glen - erm , won by 18 lengths so was not the lay I thought! Of the others Salut Saint Cloud was 7/2 - no rice gap at the off but still managed 2nd and My shadow won well, so you'd have profitted on both in the alce only market

LINGFIELD
210
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Arabesque Dancer, 5/1 Herrbee, 6/1 Lancaster Lad, 8/1 Rubytwosox, 10/1 Rosy Dawn, 16/1 Alannah, Tilly Ann, 33/1 Cobbold Point, Dome Blonde .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nothing too solid on display here and ARABESQUE DANCER, who has done enough in better company to suggest she has races in her, looks to have been found an ideal opportunity. Lancaster Lad could prove best of the rest

otential price gapper here - 6/4 - - 5/1 with 4 horses 16/1 or bigger - 12/13 tips , top rpr, top topspeed - postdata selections "looks to have been found an ideal opportunity" -
Arabesque Dancer
Recent efforts in handicap company suggest she has a small race in her and this represents an easier assignment; conditions unlikely to be a problem and looks the one to beat.

NEGATIVES - selling stakes race - never run at Lingfield before but is proven on all weather
Falls into the lazy lay category

I will take a chance despite the poor race type and the fact the horse has no course run behind him. Hope Eddie Ahern will oblige. Again, with the above in mind, place only betting is safer but with safety comes poor returns

SEDGEFIELD
220







- -
SP
SP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Riguez Dancer, 5/2 Whispering Death, 5/1 Peters Star, 8/1 Theatre Belle, 16/1 Earvee, Samizdat, 18/1 Rimsky Korsakov, 33/1 Late Return, Legend Again, 40/1 Chapel House, 50/1 Cozwecan, She´s So Lucky, 66/1 To The Wind, 100/1 Penney Lane.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may boil down to a duel between WHISPERING DEATH and Riguez Dancer. The last-named sets quite a useful standard on hurdles form and is Tony McCoy's only booked ride here today but decent Flat handicapper Whispering Death is preferred in receipt of weight, having shaped better than the bare facts suggest in his one previous try hurdling.

Level stakes on Riguez dancer and WHispering death - big return on Whispering - may not be the 2 horse race that the prices indicate given the ground conditions but worth a punt

3 into 1
NONE

FOOTY
3rd meeting between the Arse and Liverpool today and it is likely to be attack v defense thie eveing - one team needs to score and the other doesn't although still one goal for them will cement the away goal advantage

Under 2.5 goals -AGAIN? This time hoping for a trade - it should be a very nervy affair and a neutral bet is the one for me. Arsenal are certainly capable of winning if their home performance can be replicated.

Last 3 matches have been 1-1 - surely sequence wise this is unlikely to happen again, but the 2nd leg of a Champions LEague match is not one for me to start laying 1-1

An interesting match which shows the part of the season we are ion - West Ham v Pompey - 2 teams safe and with nothing to lay for - Pompey psychologically will the players shirk tough tackles with a date in the FA CUP final guaranteed? A simle no bet match - a dead rubber for me.
Chelsea v Fenerbache - why the worry? - Chelsea have the away goal - they only need to score one goal to no reply to go through. Expect a strong bias towards defending from Chelski - one Fenerbache goal will be disasterous - again we have the old truism (ish) that Chelsea do not lose at home.
Any unquoted at 5.5 in the correct score market? - that's mighty short for a 2nd leg Champiosn league match but too big to be layable.
It's a difficult game to get an angle into

Half time score 0-0 and 1-0 perhaps?
2.22 to back under 2.5 goals TO TRADE only could be an option - tight early on and the price will plummet with no goals early in the first half.
Expectation in the market is for goals - 5.5 any unquoted - over 2.5 goals at 1.88?

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