Monday 7 April 2008

7/4

Well, I've got to laugh - Weld/Smullen hit a treble yesterday and the only Weld/Smullen horse I chose came nowhere!

Sail 2nd for O'Brien albeit at 6/4, not an each way price. My day would have been more tolerable had Halfway to Heaven won at 7/1 instead of 2nd by a head

A poor day for backing the O'Brien's - obviously I got the wrong combo - should have been Weld/Smullen!
Another price gapper wins in Sindanna

Oslot won for 3 into 1 which has been very poor, down largely to underperformance of shorties at big festivals.

The footy saved my bacon yesterday with a nice payout on the 1-0 score Everton ,even accounting for the 2 stakes on the other 2 results I still got about 6/1.

Overs and Ronaldo to score compensated for half time/full time debacle and another neutral bet came in a FA Cup Semi final. Rangers drew 3-3, the price 4/6 said it was going to be a tight game and at no stage were Rangers ahead to allow for trading but I based the bet on the incentive created by Celtic's hiccup at the weekend.

So the blind backing of O'Brien pot shots didn't come off, but the footy again proved worthwhile and more predictable

KELSO

330

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Robbers Glen, 11/4 Donati, 9/2 Silver Monument, 5/1 Hartburn, 16/1 Overlady, 25/1 Pharagon, Senora Moss, 33/1 Sessay Miller, Uncle Neil, 50/1 Beauchamp Valley, Theatre Rights, 100/1 High Expectations.

Robbers Glen looks opposable at the right price (too early to say) against a number of point to point recruits who just might thrive in this hunter chase

410 KEMPTON
ETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Salut Saint Cloud, 9/2 Fade To Grey, 7/1 Starstruck Peter, 8/1 Arabian Sun, 10/1 Nod´s Star, 12/1 Ernmoor, 14/1 Lady Dedlock, Ocean Rock, 16/1 Taxman, 20/1 Vanishing Dancer, 25/1 Huggle, Tetragon, 33/1 Finished Article, Working Late.
Possible price gapper although I cannot access Spotlight's verdict at time of writing - 12/13 tips - top RPR - top topspeed - course and distance winner - postdata selection -
NEGATIVES - 14 runners

If price gap remains in live market, then worthy of support - price gapers have been very consistent ,even the ones I didn't fancy like Pertemps Network still win!

440
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 My Shadow, 4/1 Peas In A Pod, 6/1 Saafend Geezer, Sarah´s First, 8/1 Hla Tun, 14/1 Kashmina, Pantherii, 16/1 Tell Me What, 20/1 Mujahope.

I spoke about Desiderio in my eletter re spread betting - heavily backed and obliged well - well My Shadow beat that one so on form lines has an outstanding chance
POSITIVES - hint of a price gap - 9/15 tips - top rpr - top topspeed - familiar jockey - postdata selection -distance winner

My Shadow
Couple of decent efforts on turf at Cagnes and made most of decent mark going handicapping when putting in powerful late run for decisive win over Desiderio (winner since) and Saafend Geezer at Lingfield last week; way he won there suggests this track will suit better and the one to beat

NEGATIVES - unproven at Kempton

Again Spotlight's Verdict is not available online at time of writing. If price gap remians then worthy of support.

I suspect the safer bets for both of the above are the place only bets but of course payout will be restricted

PLUMPTON
250
BETTING FORECAST: 1/16 Sir Harry Ormesher, 14/1 Captain Smoothy, 25/1 Celtic Treasure, 33/1 Walkingonsunshine .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only one winner barring accidents and that is SIR HARRY ORMESHER. Captain Smoothy, who would be getting 52lb from the selection if this were a handicap, can follow him home

At 1/16, he's got to be laid in 2 miles 5 furlongs soft ground ,likely to become heavier? Liability extremely small and one mistake is all we need

3 into 1's

300 KELSO - THE WHISPERER
340 KEMPTON - BRIDGE OF FERMOY
250 PLUMPTON - Sir Harry Ormesher - Price too short to consider backable
450 PLUMPTON - AMORLEIGH

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