11/4

Day 1 of the masters and Fred Couples is going backwards, the Flora Pro active hasn't kicked in for Padraig Harrington just yet, Retief is in a reasonable position and Ogilvy is 3 over when I last looked. Looks like I won't be retiring from my MAsters bets - or will I? -3 days to go

Gutted with Bamby- why? Well the 2 before it in the betting forecast came 1st and 2nd - it was a lucky dip -if I only looked to my left - see below - Mini Minster placed 16/1 and Sinatas won at 7/1

CARLISLE
245
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Fistral, 7/1 Diavoleria, Marufo, 8/1 Bijou Dan, 9/1 Breakwater House, Soul Angel, 10/1 Mini Minster, Sinatas, 12/1 Bamby, High Stand Lad, Twelve Paces, 14/1 Square Dealer, 16/1 Scuzme .

Northern Tour won , a job made easier with Celtic Commitment's absence RIverscape won for a massive 38p profit as I'd loaded on BArring Decree - still nothing lost!
Nice win for Psychiatrist. Theatre Girl won well and if you decided to dutch him and Quillan Hill with a berak even on Theatre Girl then no problems and no losses
Neck second for Expensive Art and I really don't like taking on long term absentees -inevitable at the beginning of the flat season - how well tuned are they?

Tipparary lays - races 1,2,4,5,6 - Comadoir 2nd at 8/11, THe loan express 3rd at 4/5 , Prince Erik 2nd at 5/4 , Kargali 1st 30/10 , Tai Shan 1st 6/4 - a nice haul of shorties losing and a good profit with a 3/10 winner losing not much and only one prominent winner - HEAVY GROUND you see can pay layers dividends

Getafe scored 1st in the 40th minute with 10 men - now the sending off in the 6th minute did nothing for the odds even when the goal was scored. I managed to eek out a profit in the end, but not the type of profit I expected if this was an 11 v 11 game. The 89th minute equaliser allowed those who wanted to gamble with their trade - eg time v profit - would have managed well.

Under 2.5 goals came in in both matches - congrats to Rangers as well.

All in all another great day for me with no form analysis whatsoever on the horses - just using the betting forecast - I'm a lazy bar steward and can't be arsed looking over form - it's all in the price!

ASCOT
330
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Doubly Guest, Tamimi´s History, 6/1 Zanir, 15/2 Distiller, 8/1 Callisto Moon, 9/1 Cnoc Moy, 10/1 Hibiki, 14/1 Arctic Wings, Daltaban, 16/1 Stagehand, 20/1 Mamlook, Maraafeq, Mud Monkey, Shavansky, 25/1 Amazing King, 66/1 Tension Point .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fiercely competitive. TAMIMI'S HISTORY faces a very different type of test than at Market Rasen but he won with authority in the end and he has plenty of big-field handicap experience to call upon from his Flat days. Battle-hardened Distiller was also tempting now back on quicker ground, while Daltaban could be another lively one lurking off his light weight after nearly four months off.

Firecely competitive- ignore the market leaders and lucky dip time again? - with only one real outsider in Tension Point. I'll go mid table with Hibiki each way - not so far away placed from the market leaders to be considered an outsider.
I don't expect a return and am just speculating here - after all it is "fiercely competitive"

DONCASTER
You see the problem we face - Royalist in the 1st - a 255 day absence and short priced market leader based on that run in JULY last year - how on earth do we know the horse will be fit enough to replicate that run - the niggle is why the short price? Do the bookies know something? - anyway a no bet for me

MUSSELBURGH
230
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Grizebeck, 5/1 Danzatrice, 6/1 Categorical, Dance Sauvage, 8/1 Easibet Dot Net, Grey Outlook, 16/1 Masking Baldini, 20/1 Asrar .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Grizebeck comes here at the top of his game and has to be respected but it may be worth risking GREY OUTLOOK at bigger odds. The Linda Perratt/Ian Semple combination have enjoyed a healthy strike-rate this year and although the mare has a bit to find from out of the handicap, she will appreciate conditions more than many of these.[PSm]

Grizeback vulnerable with a 9lb penalty? Form of 432131 is a little inconsistent and the move out to 9/4 early doors hints at vulnerability today - BUT who to back each way? They're all returning from 100+ day absences. I will chance laying Grizebeck today although I am aware the price is highish so will monitor in runnning over an ample 2 miles

340
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Stevie Thunder, 6/1 Splash The Cash, 7/1 Grand Value, 10/1 Always Certain, Fulford, 12/1 Complete Frontline, 14/1 Hurstpierpoint, 16/1 Legendary Guest, 20/1 Turn And River, Willyn, 33/1 Bourse, Carnival Dream .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around Stevie Thunder, whose excellent second at Nottingham makes him the one to beat and who is due to be 6lb higher in future handicaps. He could have been better drawn though and both SPLASH THE CASH and Grand Value make some appeal in opposition. The latter is open to further improvement this summer but the selection is still unexposed over this trip and recent runs have suggested he will improve for it.[PSm]

Price gapper here - positives -5/4 - - -6/1 is significant - now 11/10 early doors - due to be 6lb higher in future handicaps - "the one to beat" - 9 days sicne last run =fresh - course and distance winner - 10 from 13 tips - top RPR and topspeed - 2nd to a well backed hot pot last time out finishing well ahead of 3rd place represents great form - jockey is familiar with the horse -

NEGATIVES - the draw in stall 1 is the major concern here and is sufficient evidence for some to consider laying but how significant is it over 7 furlongs as compared to 5 furlongs

It all depends on McDonalds tactical nouse - if you have confidence that the jockeyship can overcome the draw disadvantage then the horse is emminently backable.
Looks a more obvious place only bet but I will chance the win only as the horse is odds against

415
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Legion D´Honneur, Tajweed, 5/2 Prince Kalamoun, 12/1 Bretwalda, 20/1 Flagstone, Notnowrosie, 33/1 Nelson Vettori, 100/1 Never Cross ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mark Johnston should have a good guide as to what is required here having formerly trained Legion D'Honneur and having saddled the third home in the race in which Prince Kalamoun was second last time. Given that we may not have seen the best of TAJWEED (nap) yet he is preferred, with the benefit of a reappearance run behind him.

I've got an inkling for Tajweed today in what looks a 3 horse affair, but I cannot discount the other 2 obvious rivals so will bet all 3 and load profit on Tajweed.
Current prices are TAJWEED - 2.3 (Stake £20 wins £10.45)
PRINCE KALAMOUN - 3.6 (Stake £9 loses £2.60)
LEGION DHONNEUR - 5.6 (Stake £6 loses £1.40)
If any of the others win, I lose £35

WOLVES
650
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Nawamees, 13/2 Looks The Business, 7/1 Brastar Jelois, Treetops Hotel, 16/1 George Henson, 20/1 Castle Frome, Sekula Pata, 66/1 Pur Star .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NAWAMEES looked a cut above this grade when running up his three timer and is hard to oppose meeting his opponents on far better terms than he would do if this was a handicap

"hard to oppose" - possible HTB selection - signficiant price gap - top RPR - course and distance winner
NEGATIVES - 86 days since last run - any reason? Looks a little "obvious" to me - great form 91112 -

For those unconvinced ,each way looks decent with 8 the field and any of the 3 before George Henson look worth support .
Personally, I will chance Nawamees if the price gap continues in the live market (bear in mind the race doesn't go off til this evening)

820
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Straight Face, 5/1 Optical Illusion, 8/1 A Big Sky Brewing, Alucica, Greenwood, Welcome Releaf, 12/1 Shaftesbury Avenue, 14/1 Hi Spec, 25/1 Amongst Amigos, Moon Forest, 33/1 Vanatina, 50/1 Fervent .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is hard to get hard to get away from STRAIGHT FACE (nap) in what is an uncompetitive race. Market support for A Big Sky Brewing now he faces his easiest task to date would be interesting, but he proved expensive to follow last season, while Shaftesbury Avenue is another dropped in grade and who could have been rejuvenated by a change of scenery

The usual multiple winner in a handicap conundrum with Straight face - a winning run of 3 - winning sequences always end - BUT when? 2/1 indicates it may not be so straight forward - and last 2 wins by a neck and short head show that the horse has only just done enough. Layable for me tonight - hope I have it right!

3 into 1
Has been in freefall with a significant number of 2nd places -you get nothing for 2nd alas!
500 Doncaster - Yakimov
230 Muss - Grizebeck

FOOTY
Good results yesterday and again the power of trading against traditional betting showed itself well in the Getafe game - you see now why they are one of my favourite Spanish sides!

It's that time of the week where I say " BEaujolais Rodney, Beajolais" -yes French ligue 2 - NAntes and LE Havre both away today and both games look winnable against teams who have had poor home form. Business end of the season and wins are a must. THis is a battle between 1st and 2nd with LE HAvre having the advantage - 5 points - so if I were to chose a team who REALLY needs the win it would have to be Nantes - if Le HAvre win and NAntes do not I guess they can kiss the ligue title goodbye and a chance to play against he big boys!
A double on Nantes and Le HAvre for me tonight . I know that backing these 2 every Friday will not profit every week but worth a shot ( I operate to a staking plan so can take these shots!)