Tuesday, 15 April 2008

15/4

Well Bold Punt was "ominously close" shortening to 2/1 and for those following the live markets this should have been noted - 4/6 (60%) and 2/1 (33.33%) made up 93.33% of the book. The value of a flexible attitude.

Football - so who traded the 1-0 and 2-0? When Chelsea scored, 1-0 dropped from 7.2 to 1.84 and 2-0 from 6.2 to 3.65 allowing trading there but 2-1 remained as was and higher. The any other score lay went from 5 to 60 allowing for getting out.
You must remember, as yesterday was a great example, that it ain't over until...... and not taking advantage of price drops through trading ( when a trading opportunity is available) will result in greater losses ( as I know to my cost in the past)
Chelsea still DON'T lose at home!

I didn't notice Nantes were playing and presumed they wouldn't be having played on Friday but they won easily - pity about that

EXETER
210
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Rawdon, 5/1 Dovedale, 6/1 Sovereign Spirit, 8/1 Back To The Wind, 10/1 Bon Viveur, 12/1 Global Strategy, 14/1 Captain Tidds, Mungo Jerry, Winsley Hill, 16/1 Donatessa, Emile Zola, 20/1 Gallant Hero, Ganymede, Lord Adonis, Petrus De Sormain, 33/1 Plume D´Oudairies .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A whole host to consider in an open affair. EMILE ZOLA is one of the more speculative options as his form figures imply, but the drying conditions could make a big difference to him and he's worth chancing in the first-time headgear.

" a whole host to consider in a wide open affair" - well my previous each way lucky dips have fallen short so this time I'll chance Captain Tidds and Donatessa each way at 14/1 and 16/1 not with any confidence as I'm only chosing them based on their position in the betting forecast

310
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Nacadour, 6/1 Mister Apple´s, Potts Of Magic, 7/1 Iris De Balme, 9/1 Yann´s, 10/1 Even More, Ibberton, Ironside, 12/1 Henry´s Pride, 14/1 Amazing Valour, Special Conquest, 20/1 Zimbabwe, 25/1 Noble Buck, 50/1 Good Man Again .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mister Apple's is expected go well back from a break but preference is for strong traveller IRIS DE BALME (nap), who isn't yet fully exposed over marathon trips. Nacadour and Potts Of Magic should also be involved.

Iris De Balme is the shortest priced distance winner over this 3 mile 6 furlongs and I'll chance each way

NOTTS
320
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Azeer, 9/2 Fosool, Modernist, 5/1 Andaman Sunset, 8/1 Master Spy, 14/1 Born Tobouggie, King´s Alchemist, Sir Royal, 16/1 Staten, 50/1 Jordi Roper, 66/1 Lady Florence .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Azeer must take plenty of beating but FOSOOL is bred to be useful and may be the answer if there's any confidence behind her in the betting.[PJ]

"must take plenty of beating" - very confident words from Spotlight but there is a "but"
Place only on Azeer for me

With soft ground and maidens elsewhere it's best to look at the live betting market for clues with these. A day where I don't really expect much at all from the racing.

3 into 1
Winner and pulled up yesterday
None today

No real football opportunities for me today
A very quiet day - racing like today's is ideally suited to live market monitoring especially with the maidens. Soft ground is a sticking point stopping my involvement.

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