Friday 11 April 2008

12/4

Ascot's lucky dip - I was not adventurous - the winners came from the 20/1 betting forecast prices!
Well Royalist won so the price gap was significant after all
Grizbeck lost (ie won) for the lay but Stevie Thunder, Nawamees and Tajweed all won and Straight Face came 2nd - another multiple handicapper bites the dust!. Le HAvre and NAntes both didn't win but I only had one bet - the double so wasn't too concerned

DONCASTER
Tricky card and with the threat of soft it's best left alone for me
NEWBURY
330
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Otarie, 7/2 Ping Pong Sivola, 4/1 Tambourine Ridge, 11/2 Charlottes Webb, 11/1 Lady Bling Bling, 12/1 Romantic Bridge, 16/1 Kentford Mist, 20/1 Khadija, Ruby Crown, 25/1 Osokenda, 28/1 Poppy Smith, Suppose I´m Stupid, 40/1 Flirty Babe, Live The Life, 66/1 My Beautaful, Spot The Lady, 100/1 Touch Of Velvet .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A substandard race for this track. OTARIE shaped as if a step up to this sort of trip may very well help when a workmanlike winner at 1-3 at Southwell last time and appeals most, ahead of Ping Pong Sivola. Tambourine Ridge and Charlottes Webb are the two others to consider closely. [MCu]

Otartie out to 11/4 early doors - quite a contrast from the 15/8 and a possible reason to oppose the hot pot with an each way alternative. 4 horses NOT at double figure odds could be the ones to concentrate on.
It's a 3 mile 17 runner mares only novices hurdle and not the ideal betting medium.
Tamborine Ridge each way appeals.
Alternatively £10 level stakes leaves break evens on Otarie and Tambourine Ridge and nice returns on Ping Pong and Charlotte

UTTOXETER
200
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pressgang, 7/2 Bluegun, 5/1 Smart Tom, 6/1 Lappeenranta, 10/1 Adroit Approach, 12/1 Charlotte Street, 20/1 Blazes Boylan, 25/1 Murphys Beau, 33/1 Badly Bruised, 50/1 General Potter, Jenny Soba, Public Esteem, Wide Receiver, 66/1 Jamesdoubleyou, 100/1 Bobbie´s Quest, King Rocky .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRESSGANG faces his easiest task to date over hurdles and it will be disappointing if he can't rise to the challenge. Smart Tom is an interesting newcomer to hurdles despite the absence and, along with Lappeenranta, looks best of the others

With Charlotte Street a non runner does this give Adroit Approach an each way chance? Also Mrphy's Bea now 16/1 (may be a compensatory move for the non runner) so these 2 each way in a difficult maiden hurdle

720 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Dhhamaan, 2/1 Ballycroy Boy, 7/2 Honey Monster, 20/1 Little Angel, 33/1 Ballyhealy Lady, Hero Heart .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The very capable DHHAMAAN (nap) has found his niche in this type of race and this represents a decent opportunity to complete the five-timer on Polytrack.[
On a 5 timer - NOT a handicap multiple winner - this one's a claimer but worth laying in the hope that the winning sequence ends soon

3 into 1
Another winner yesterday in Grizedale
335 DONCASTER - DON'T PANIC
150 NEWBURY - BARBERS SHOP - too short
310 UTTOXETER - FLYING FALCON - too short
820 WOLVES - Sub Prime


FOOTY
An interesting set of fixtures today with some games MUST WINS v WAITING FOR SUMMER HOLS
Bolton v West Ham is one such game. West Ham in holiday mode and with an increasing injury list look layable at 3.95 - price a bit big for me though given Bolton are, what's the phrase, SHITE!
This is must win versus "we're all going on a summer holiday" 2.12 is decent enough to back Bolton with one look firmly on the trading - they showed they could score against Arsenal so if they score the first goal we will be in a good tradeable position

At 2.56, Everton are layable away to a Birmingham side fighting for their lives and playing stingingly at home. I suspect Brum will get something from this match.

Villa's last match with Derby - goals were scored in the 2nd half and with Derby undergoing significant improvement under 2.5 goals trading looks to be worth involvement.

Sunderland are at home against a stuttering Man City. I see this as a one goal affair and will back 1-0 and 0-1 - 10 and 7.4 odds allow for trading too. speculative but I can't see City scoring more than 1 and Sunderland against similar teams have won 1-0 - highly speculative bt worthy of interest given the odds.

Over 2.5 goals at evens looks worth getting involved in in the Lyon match. Again trading will be ideal and an early goal would be nice!

Watford in free fall? Over 2.5 goals in the Baggies game today I think - either a fightback from Watford to stop the rot or West Brom exploiting the poor form - any way it goes I hope both teams can conjure up 3 goals or more - 1.83 at present

I must say here that today is a difficult betting day all round so if I win a good amount early I will retire from frther betting involvement. This type of the season football wise is difficult to read and the horse racing today is geared towards to layer by and large

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