155 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 La Vecchia Scuola, 5/2 Super Formen, 3/1 Qulinton, 10/1 Mr Crystal, 12/1 Quick Will, 14/1 Act Sirius, 16/1 Rich Lord, 33/1 Currahee .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The extraordinarily powerful Nicholls stable must be respected in its bid to improve an already fine record in this race with Super Formen, but there was a great deal to like about QULINTON's debut for David Pipe and he may be the place to turn in this field of mostly promising novices.[RA] |
230 AYR
I'm not taken by Noland here and will engineer a £10 loss on him
NOLAND - odds 1.59 - stake £33 - loss £9.43
Staarzaan - odds 6.4 - stake £13 - profit £20.14
Gods Token - odds 7.2 - stake £11 - profit £16.34
Endless Power - odds 11 - stake £5 - loss £7
Frankie Figg - no stake - loss £62
This looks reasonable enough on a tricky Saturday - of course I'll be phoning Samaritans if Frankie Figg wins
450
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Stan, 7/2 Andreas, 9/2 Marcel, 11/2 Bambi De L´Orme, 7/1 Greenhope, 16/1 En La Cruz, Jefertiti, 20/1 Helen Wood .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The most important factor looks to be whether STAN can resume in the same form he showed three days ago. If he can, the hat-trick is beckoning. Greenhope is next on the list. |
Greenhope each way just before the outsiders - 7 runners but Betfair still pays out 3 the place and 2.5 to place in these circumstances is very good and with place only and win only markets backed to the same stakes I will break even if the horse places
BANGOR on DEE
220
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Sullumo, 7/4 West End Rocker, 13/2 Peters Star, 10/1 Innox, 14/1 Professor Hegarty, 16/1 Divvys Dream, 20/1 Samsbro, 50/1 Whitewater Dash, 100/1 Icey Run, Not Near Wyse, Pollensa Bay, Poppy Smith, Sizzling Shizzy .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SULLUMO (nap) and West End Rocker look the two to focus on and the nod goes to Charlie Mann's inmate, who could have too many gears round here on the drying ground. |
I'm taking my cues largely from the BEtfair markets today and here I will generate a break even on the 2 shorties and profits on Peters Star and Professor HEgarty
Sullumo - odds 2.66 - stake - £15 - loss £1.10
West End Rocker - odds 3 - stake £13 - loss £2
Peters Star - odds 7.6 - stake £10 - profit £33.25
Professor Hegarty - odds 16 - stake £3 - profit £6.65
3 miles on ground good to soft may bring in the 2 next best in the odds
NAAS
235
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Hadarama, 7/2 Leo´s Pride, 4/1 Sufad, 5/1 Orpen Winger, 7/1 Chevie, 8/1 Mystical Lady, 10/1 Apt Son, Laurel Creek, 12/1 Ajman, Keyala, 14/1 Ormond Lad, Papadopoli, 16/1 Nobunaga, 20/1 Lyrical Symphony, White And Red, Yield For No One, 25/1 King Royal, Meabhs Star, Tropical Joy, 33/1 Torina,
Leo's PRide and Mystical lady each way for Weld/Smullen and O'Brien/Murtagh
410
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tax Free, 3/1 Snaefell, 4/1 Reverence, 5/1 Age Of Chivalry, 10/1 Benwilt Breeze, Dedo, 12/1 Peak District, Senor Benny, 25/1 Fly By Magic, Prize Spirit.
Age of Chivalry each way looks progressive and with possible ground concerns amongst the market leaders may be able to take advantage with Eyebrows Kinane on board
545
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Charlotte Bronte, 7/2 Shauna´s Princess, 5/1 Theocritus, 10/1 Tobar Na Hinfe, 12/1 Mullova, Vignelaure Rose, 14/1 Chelsea Wish, Giant Among Men, 16/1 Glad To Be Free, King´s Road, 20/1 Bartres, Chaparro, Pimlico Sound, 25/1 Mountain Coral, So Much Commotion, 50/1 Gulladoo Gold ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHARLOTTE BRONTE has the form to win a maiden of this standard. The daughter of Danehill Dancer held her own in smart company when third to the subsequent Moyglare runner-up and Fillies' Mile winner Listen on her debut in a seven-runner Listed race at The Curragh in June. Although she did not appear again for more than four months she confirmed her potential by finishing a head second to Halfway To Heaven in a 7f maiden at Leopardstown. The winner went close in a Group 3 event at the same venue on her seasonal debut.\n Shauna's Princess is a likely improver following an initial outing at Limerick two weeks ago. She drew clear of the remainder to take third in the maiden won by Manhattan Beach who had shaped really well behind the much-improved Georgebernardshaw first time out at The Curragh.\n Also worth considering is the Dermot Weld-trained newcomer Theocritus, a son of Theatrical out of a mare by Woodman.\n Mullova may improve from her first outing of the season at Tipperary but appears held by Charlotte Bronte on Leopardstown running. Riding-arrangements indicate that Charlotte Bronte is expected to beat the once-raced Giant Among Men. |
Alternatives include Theocritus and Giant among men each way - again for O'Brien and Weld/Smullen. I am going to try each way backing of these 2 stables as, combined, I should see some good returns over the season (if not today given this big field debutant maiden)
325 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Muthabara, 3/1 Nahoodh, 7/1 Lady Deauville, 10/1 Annie Skates, Michita, 14/1 Don´t Forget Faith, Love Of Dubai, 16/1 Dream Day, 25/1 Edge Of Light, Elizabeth Swann, 33/1 Savannah Poppy, Tathkaar, 50/1 Lille Ida.
1.83 the place for Nahoodh for a stable with a 50% strike rate in THIS RACE in the last 6 years
700 NOTTINGHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 St Jean Cap Ferrat, 5/2 Princess Lomi, 9/2 Solas Alainn, 12/1 Loveofmylife, 16/1 Dancing Sword, 20/1 River Kent, 25/1 Enderby Princess, 66/1 Great Future .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are enough doubts over St Jean Cap Ferrat to warrant not taking a short price about him, for all he has the best form, and race-fit PRINCESS LOMI, who has shaped as though this stiffer test will suit, gets the nod over the newcomer Solas Alainn |
Newcomer at 9/2 - how will he run? Favourite not strong with Spotlight. This leads me to Loveofmylife, currently 10/1 each way in the hope the horse can take advantage of underperforming favourite and newcomer who may not run well
350 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Wi Dud, 13/8 Utmost Respect, 11/2 Big Timer, 14/1 Celtic Mill, 16/1 Ebraam, 20/1 Hinton Admiral .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Utmost Respect looks sure to develop into a high-class sprinter this year, but faces a smart rival on his return in WI DUD, who ran pleasingly on his reappearance and may be able to make the most of his possible fitness advantage. |
Big Timer each way on a Saturday where surprises usually occur
815 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Desperate Dan, 6/4 Doubtful Sound, 13/2 Compton Classic, 16/1 Lady Hopeful, Stormburst, 20/1 Many Welcomes, 50/1 Barbossa .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DESPERATE DAN is suited by a speed test on Polytrack and, with race-fitness now assured, can have too much class for these.[BDO] |
Despearate Dan for me " can have too much class for these" - good enough for me - looks to have a 50/50 chance
845 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Blow Hole, King´s Wonder, 11/4 Military Power, 12/1 Ancient Cross, Piermarini, 16/1 Royal Soverin, St Johns Wood, 20/1 Hollander, 50/1 Springfield Lass, 100/1 Insured ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KING'S WONDER boasts the strongest form and, over a longer trip that should suit, he can draw upon those positive juvenile experiences to deny interesting debutant Blow Hole. |
Hold UP! Hollander at 11/2 in the morning prices - one non runner at 12/1 shouldnot have affected this price - IF remaining at 11/2 at the off (845 this evening) - a good each way bet
and a possible early 16/1 system bet bt I am writing some 9 hours before the off!
FOOTY
0-0 LE HAvre last night but i'm well up on football this season
First game of the day sees the Arse play Reading at Home - Arsenal results at home -they score 1 or they score 3!
Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 looks worth support .
Half time score - I'm in a speculative mood
Liverpool have lost their last 2 at the Cottage BUT a look at the team sheet and it was VERY different - no Torres ! Fulham are fighting for their lives and Liverpool have been helped by Everton's inability to win mid week to heap pressure on 4th place. Roy Hodgson has the prayer mat out hoping for an under par Liverpool performance.
Brian McBride to score anytime at 4.6 is a reasonable investment.
This is a tricky one to call despite the obviously better personnel in the Liverpool ranks, BUT when your backs are against the wall there can be surprises.
Half time score 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 looks a decent investment
Bolton haven't scored away in their last 3 and, like Fulham, really NEED A WIN FULL STOP!.
Boro have hardly been setting the world alight but have shown improvement. Alfonso Alves looks highly impressive and at 6 is a decent price for first goalscorer although safer the 2.68 for score anytime.
End of season -MUSTN'T concede -under 2.5 goals looks a good trade
Wigan at home can only mean one thing - under 2.5 goals under "good game good game " Brucey
bt last 6 games head to head have had 2.5 goals or more!. )again Bruce wasn't in charge in a number of them) - I'll chance under 2.5 goals given the time of the season again to trade
Celtic bounced back to form last 2 games and should overcome Aberdeen at home tonight if midweek exersions havent taken their toll
Level stakes Celtic/Celtic and Draw /Celtic loads profit on the draw/celtic with a £1 loss on the double
Falkirk must be backed against Gretna whose squad comprises the bloke who sells half time burgers upfront, Bill the coach driver in midfield, and Mrs Miggins from Gretna Town centre back - yes they are decimated.
Perhaps a double with Celtic?
TREBLE BET
You know the one I mentioned in the eletter
2 x 1/2 and 1 x 1/3 produces a 2/1 bet (home teams only)
1/2's and 1/3's (or derivatives of)
Sevilla -4/7
Fiorentina 4/7
Auxerre 1/2
Bayern Munich 8/15
barcelona 1/2
Ross County 4/7
Banik Osrtava 4/11
Hamilton 1/3
Celtic 3/10
Torquay 4/7
Histon 8/15
Wycombe 4/9
Rochdale 4/7
Swansea 4/7
Arsenal 1/3
Immediately I'll leave the Blue Square games alone as they are very unpredictable
Celtic will be my 1/3 selections because they are back in form in their last 2 games, and NEED to win to keep the pressure on Rangers for the SPL title. Barcelona at 1/2 face an Espanyol side which is not firing and is poor on the road. Not a team to trust though, Barca but the best of the above 1/2 shots
Metz have not won in their last 6 and Auxerre are 1/2 at home but have not been the best. The hope is home advantage can secure a win
So these are the 3 for the 2/1 treble - let's see if the system works
I tried to upload a video showing the dutching bets but it has had trouble uploading
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