2/4

So are you a trader or a bettor? The unders came in the Roma match but traders will have secured a green screen within the first 1/2 hour of the match - bettors would have been sweating it with 2-0 Man Utd for an extended part of the game. Both lays came in, and shock-horror, Barca didn't concede a goal and they scored first - lovely jubbly for the lay of Schalke. THe lay of Roma was put to bet by Ronny and Rooney.

Golden Penny won, and the break even dutch on Compromizenotension came off as he could only manage 2nd but the main protagonists were 1st and 3rd

I always like taking on ultra shorties in questionable ground but La Pantera Rosa didn't place alas.

Brrok no argument won again which was good to see - a fav of mine!

What do these bets have in common? Well they all come from betting blueprint strategies in the newsletter and no exhaustive form analysis or anything else - simply the betting forecast and Spotlight - someone's already done the work so we don't have to!

CATTERICK - GOOD TO SOFT

A poor quality card - the dross are all getting a run out pre Aintree!

HERE'S WHAT SPOTLIGHT HAS TO SAY ABOUT THE FIRST " Races don't come much worse than this one!" and I thought we had a contender in the 25 runner conditional jockeys handicap hurdle yesterday

Early season flat races are tricky to quantify with a lot of horses coming back after lengthy absences and only the trainer, I suppose, knowing how much ability they retain.

520
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Golden Dane, 11/4 Killer Class, 3/1 Straight, 7/1 Maahe, 20/1 Kyzer Chief, Rightcar Hull, 25/1 Mchepple, 50/1 Captain Turbot .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An 8lb pull may help GOLDEN DANE reverse last week's narrow Redcar defeat by Killer Class and Straight.[AC]

This is the only race I can salvage because it looks like a 4 horse race, with the 3 named in SPotlight being the most likely

Maahe is the fly in the ointment. Current betfair prices at time of writing allow level stakes dutching with a nice payout on Killer CLass - prices of 2.72 , 4 and 5.8 at time of writing will no doubt fluctuate between now and 520.

GOWRAN PARK - HEAVY

535
Common sense should suggest laying Rosa Cyborg at odds on in a 20 runner maiden hurdle in heavy ground shouldn't it - glass half full punters would say "why is a horse in a 20 runner maiden hurdle in heavy ground so short?"
At current 1.81 this is lay material for me - it just has to be - plenty can go wrong. Expectation for the win of course with the price but 2 mile 4 in heavy in ground which will have cut up and 19 opponents - race type as well - low liability and a near market rival in Diophas.

Enough evidence to suggest the possibility at least of an upset.

A tradeable horse I would imagine if laying now at current betfair price -as the day progresses I could see the price nearing evens

KEMPTON
720
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tathkaar, 3/1 Erlydors, 9/2 Passionforfashion, 8/1 Ivory Silk, 9/1 Nice Wee Girl, 12/1 Plum Asset, 25/1 Good News Too, 50/1 Hold Fire, Moluccella, Pennyspider ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond TATHKAAR, who showed considerable promise as a juvenile and didn't look out of place in Listed company on her AW return. Erlydors rates an obvious danger.[BDO]

Erlydors I remember from a previous blog entry - beaten by Elizabeth Swann (the horse not the person!) - looks a good place only bet albeit at restrictive odds.

820

Another rise in the weights oft Diriculous and another rise in class -yes the horse won when upped from class 6 to class 5 but I think that the rise in class and rise in weights should conspire against him. Spotlight sounds a note of caution " could still be ahead of the handicapper"-inconsistent form too - the horse hasnt put together a winning sequence - rather that sequence has been punctuated by unplaced efforts in lower grade. 2.9 may be a bit big for a lay -maybe a race to sit it out and not put your hard earned on what looks like a likely winner in the Racing Post

If you feel the case to lay is strong enough, then by all means wade in - if we think a market leader is weak, we can also look to each way alternatives and with a relatively short priced fav, the odds for the others will be artificially inflated

Small field handicaps in Lingfield -in in the race card type of meeting

NOTTINGHAM - SOFT GROUND

We saw the effect of soft at Folkstone - it makes it difficult to back with confidence -there is an obvious draw bias at Nottingham - check the postdata table for an at-a-glance look at the draw effect.

THe 240 looks like the usual 2 horse race but its over 5 furlongs - the outsiders are debutants and could be anything. I'm going to chance a throw away bet with money I can write off on with Mr Clearview and Lady Kingston - big odds -4 runners - 5 furlongs - soft ground - novice stakes - worth a punt I feel although I wouldn't rely on it!

310
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Sonny Red, 11/8 Reverence, 8/1 Hoh Hoh Hoh, 10/1 Strike Up The Band, 12/1 Angus Newz, 66/1 El Potro, Prigsnov Dancer, 200/1 Reigning Monarch .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Freed from the shackles of a Group 1 penalty and reported to be back in rude health after his problems last season, REVERENCE can take this race for the second time in three years at the expense of obvious threat Sonny Red, who only just came up short on his reappearance at Doncaster.[PJ]

5 furlongs in soft again but a better class of raced - front 2 are dutchable to level stakes with profit (AT CURRENT PRICES)favouring a larger payout on Reverence.

Yet again I reiterate - 5 furlongs on soft - not the ideal betting scenario

An altogether poor race card today and sometimes its worth exercising your power as a punter to not get involved - the bookies have to.

I would be keen today to look at Nottingham and sell the performance of the Racing Post favourites on IG INDEX spread betting. Something to look at I feel. The ingredients are there - soft ground - big competitive fields

3 into 1

520 CATTERICK -GOLDEN DANE

FOOTY

YEt again the importance of the away goal ensured both matches remained at under 2.5 goals. Will it be the same tonight.

All England clash with Liverpool v Arsenal and head to heads can be discounted given this is "a game of 2 halves" - TACTICS determined by the fact this is 2 legs.

My bias is towards Liverpool to go through - Rafa seems to have Europe sussed while Arsenal's comeback against Bolton tells you more about Bolton than some sudden resurgence from the Arse (hmm resurgence from the Arse - a great title for the new Sex Pistols album!)

Home advantage to Arsenal and the mantra "must not concede" will be ringing in their ears. This is likely to be tighter than my brother when it's his turn to buy a round.

Again I must return to the under 2.5 goals as a trade here I think - it seems the only angle in. I know this is a one off but historically meeting betwen top 4 sides are unders and draws or even 1 goal - the winning margin reflects this - 3.05 for no goals and 2.22 for 1 goal. Dutchable -yes but profit will be on the no goal winning margin.

Arsenal are 1.87 to qualify which I think is layable over 2 legs - highly tradeable if Liverpool get an away goal ( remember we have Anfield to come which should hand a great advantage over to the Merseysiders)

Chelsea certainly possess the firepower to get that crucial away goal in Turkey this evening -an interesting stat from the Racing Post " Chelsea have conceded only 2 goals in this season's competition. The Blues are on a run of 6 consecutive clean sheets in Europe"

Dutch the correct score market? - 0-0 at 8.2, 0-1 at 7 , 0-2 at 11 and 1-2 at 11 (break even on 0-0 and 1-2) For the safety conscious, 1-1 at 7.4 can also be included given ths shortest odds are 7
THe hope here is that this great European defensive record remains - again we can include 1-0 here ( break even now on 0-0, 1-2, 1-1, 1-0) which really loads profit on the 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 scorelines

I know - a complicated bet and a lot of stake money tied up so unders is the easier option for those less inclined to the correct score and dutching

Again under 2.5 goals looks a good angle in for trading purposes.

.