Rosa Cyborg won by a head - gutted - so close to getting her beaten
Erlydors placed as expected.
Were you swayed by my case for opposing Diriculous? - well the horse found one too good
Speculative dutch of the outsiders didn't come in, but I wasn't expecting it too, just preparing for the kind of shocks that can happen in these small field sprints. Sonny Red won for break even.
unders came in by the skin of its teeth in the Arsenal match - no trading was possible with 2 goals in very quick succession - just a sweat it out and hope! Lay of Arsenal to qualify at 1.87 was done great favours by the away goal and we were able to trade out quite easily.
Chelsea I got all wrong - first goal after 13 minutes and 2nd goal in 65th minute gave a window of opportunity for traders. Correct score dutch didn't come in.
Chelsea's defensive sequence ended with conceding 2
Today sees day 1 of the Aintree Grand National festival and it's high class stuff
200
No 25 runner conditional jockeys handicap hurdles here - no sir!
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Inglis Drever, 11/2 Blazing Bailey, 6/1 Kicks For Free, 8/1 Millenium Royal, 14/1 Chief Dan George, Gaspara, Lough Derg, 20/1 Ballyfitz, 25/1 Faasel, 33/1 Flight Leader, 66/1 Kawagino .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INGLIS DREVER was below par in this last year but has run well enough in three other course runs to suggest he is fully effective here so, having travelled better than is often the case when winning his third World Hurdle last time and with the likely decent pace here a plus, is difficult to get away from. Kicks For Free was unlucky not to win the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last time when finishing very strongly after being hampered by a mid-race faller and, having shaped as if 3m would be well within range then, is next best |
inglis Drever brought a tear to the eye with his gutsy victory at Cheltenham and is a price gapper here - 5/4 - - - 11/2 - "is difficult to get away from" - "the one to beat" - 10 of the 16 tips - top RPR - top topspeed - postdata selection - course and distance winner.
It all points to him - BUT this is highly competitive and the performance of short priced favs at Cheltenham ( Inglis not withstanding) was extremely poor precisely because of the competitive nature of the races -so what to do?
3 miles is a long way for a short priced horse to run! 1.35 for the place is reasonably safe I would hope. The market on Betfair reads 2.42, 7, 7.4 - now backing to £15, £10, £10 breaks even on Inglis and loads profit on Kicking and Blazing, the likely rivals.
It's up to you - convinced by the positivity for Inglis?
235
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Kauto Star, 11/2 Exotic Dancer, 7/1 Monet´s Garden, 8/1 Gungadu, 9/1 Our Vic .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This does look something of an afterthought for KAUTO STAR after his Gold Cup second and there is also a strong suspicion that the lure of the Order of Merit prize is a contributory factor in his showing up. For all that, he is still entitled to clear preference, his trainer having been very positive about him in the run up to this and Kauto Star's balance of form this season giving a clear edge over the others - he has proved himself the clear superior to his three main rivals on several occasions. Monet's Garden is next best |
First Inglis and now Kauto Star - it doesn't get much better does it? I want a 30 runner maiden hurdle in heavy ground please - NOT!
No reason to desert Kauto Star although it is clear now that a galloper can bring about some mistakes in the mighty one. I'll be backing.
310
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Celestial Halo, 7/4 Binocular, 8/1 Harper Valley, 12/1 First Buddy, Star Of Angels, 16/1 Lupanar, 20/1 Pagan Starprincess, 50/1 Chord, Make Haste, 100/1 Quilver Tatou .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Celestial Halo is bidding to emulate Katchit and Detroit City, the last two winners of the Triumph Hurdle, by following up here. He showed at Cheltenham that he is not easy to pass, but he is essentially a stayer and could find BINOCULAR (nap), Listed placed at 1m2f on the Flat, a match for him on this speed-favouring track. First Buddy is a potential surprise packet among the others |
More Cheltenham heroes and an obvious dutch - Binocular ran superbly as did Celestial Halo - and £10 level stakes produces a reasonable profit.
345 - Thisthatandtother lost at 1/8 in a smaller field hunter chase, but Nick Schofield is a top amateur - I won't be getting involved though
455
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Franchoek, 7/2 Whiteoak, 5/1 Elusive Dream, Group Captain, 9/1 Lightning Strike, 12/1 Razor Royale, 16/1 Laredo Sound, 33/1 Kealshore Boy .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANCHOEK, a top-flight juvenile hurdler who has come across as a horse which will be well suited by this step up in trip, appeals most. He has had three weeks to recover from a tough race in the Triumph Hurdle, so hopefully will be in peak form again now, in which case he should be hard to beat. Whiteoak may be next best, ahead of Elusive Dream |
And still they come! - WHAT A CARD!
By no means a gimme this one for Franchoek, taking a step up in distance and with Whiteoak breathing down his neck in the betting. At least ground conditions are good and not soft so we haven't got ground as an excuse. " should be hard to beat" - yes "should" stands out - not as confident as "will be very hard to beat"
Course and distance is new to Franchoek ,beaten fav at Cheltenham - Elusive Dream each way for me is an option. - Betfair's market looks 3.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.5 with a giant leap to 19 - £10 level stakes produces around £15 profit on the 3 after the fav with £8 loss on Franchoek - prices indicate 3 rivals waiting to pounce and I'm happy to take an £8 hit (which can be brought down to break even by increasing Franchoek's stake to £14, and leaving the rest at £10 - this option probably the better)
I'm breathless after viewing that card - fantastic stuff!
Kempton can be ignored - the usual tricky race card
Soft ground at Leicester and maidens and sellers -hardly any form - and horses returning from lengthy lay offs - why bother when I can concentrate on Aintree instead
TAUNTON
255
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Leading Attraction, 13/8 Menchikov, 33/1 Dunbell Boy, Proud Peer, 50/1 Outside Investor, 66/1 Kinkeel, Rules Apply .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LEADING ATTRACTION, who could prove a useful weapon next season, did it well enough on Sunday to suggest he can see off Menchikov, in what looks a straight fight. |
A simple 2 horse race here.1.28 the place Menchikov perhaps? -the level stakes dutch is possible with a loss on Leading Attraction
3 into 1
235 AINTREE - Kauto Star
245 LEICESTER - One called Alice
320 LEICESTER - Oasis Wind
255 TAUNTON - Leading Attraction
FOOTY
Some UEFA CUP action tonight and Bayern look layable at home to a team I really admire, Getafe. At 1.51 we won't lose much if BAyern score. An alternative is to back Getafe at 8.4 currently - less stake needed for potentially greater returns and the ability to trade.Remember Getafe beat the Spuds at home!
I wouldn't back Exeter with stolen money at 1.27 tonight so will lay them - to win a tenner will cost you a whopping £2.70 OR for a greater payout, back Droylsden at 14.5 for £2.70!
This bet is unlikely to come off but Droylsden have shown they can score against the big boys and this lower league football is unpredictable.
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