Tuesday, 8 April 2008

9/4

V disappointed yesterday -Arabesque dancer had the profile of a cracking lay didn't it! - selling stakes - never run on the course but I went for the back and he was unplaced.
The 2nd race of the day should have been shelved as I did with Theatre Belle at 4/1 (from 8/1) ,Peters Star in to 9/4 (from 5/1) and Whispering Death out to 7/1 - I cannot update the blog as the day goes on and hope these price moves were noted - surely at 7/1 Whispering Death couldn't be entertained as a back bet and the 2 above mentioned horses had to be accounted for but backing all 4 was uneconomical - one of the advantages of the live market. So no profit on the gee gees yesterday
Well the 1-1 sequence was broken and I wish I had more confidence in my observations- it is very frustrating. unders blown away and ,yes the 1-1 blown to smithereens. At least the Chelsea game was more predictable - nice under 2.5 goals price of 2.88 was very tradeable with big time gaps between first and 2nd - decent enough payout on 0-0, 1-0 half time score dutch. Again more faith in my observations would have seen me lay any unquoted score at 5.5 which was relatively low for such a market in a 2nd leg Champions League last 8 match

A day where fluctuations in prices were key in the horse racing .Still I'm well up on the week thanks to Sir Harry. I always place stakes based on the maxim that I bet IN THE EXPECTATION OF LOSING. This always ensures no overreaction based on well founded, or otherwise, confidence.

BATH
begins with an almost exclusively debutant 5 furlong maiden - and naturally common sense tells you that the money should be the pointer for those of us without insider info for these horses who are babies and have never seen a racetrack before
SAunton Sands is 33/` into 25/1 at time of writing (8am) and if 16/1 at the off will be worth my interest but if remaining higher than 20/1 is a no bet

This race is followed up by a 5 furlong 2 year old seller!
310
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Sugar Mint, 3/1 Colorado Blue, 10/1 Duntulm, 16/1 Hawk Flight, Highland Homestead, 25/1 Parliamentary, 33/1 Blur, Hollander, 50/1 Milldown Bay, Zayyir, 66/1 Holden Eagle, Tiger Trail, 200/1 Little Rococoa, Old Time Dancing, Sabre´s Edge .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Five want this run for a mark and whether it would be in any of their interests to finish too close to 104-rated multiple Classic entrant Sugar Mint is debatable. COLORADO BLUE, whose Doncaster maiden was given another boost by Drill Sergeant last weekend, is preferred to the Hills runner.[GW]

Again I can only say what I see at time of writing and can in no way account for market moves nearer the off which may change my opinion. As things stand, the betting forecaster has this as a 2 horse race and it's interesting to note his comments in red above. Hollander is currently quoted 20/1 (33/1 in the betting forecast) and if 20/1 or lower at the off will be of each way interest.
The problem with this race is that a number of horses are coming back off 100+ day absences. Colorado Blue to place looks the obvious way in to oppose Sugar Mint



I really can't find anything solid today - a couple of potential price gappers but in unsuitable race types (remember Arabesque dancer yesterday!)

Not a horse racing day for me today at all and I will concentrate on football. Laying looks a worthy option in the horse racing especially at Towcester whose uphill finish is a real killer.

3 into 1
850 KEMPTON - Greystoke prince

FOOTBALL
I'll lay Barcelona to qualify tonight at 1.10 and trade if Schalke manage a first goal. Barca have been poor domestically of late. Under 2.5 goals at 1.9 looks tradeable in what could be a tight game . Schalke need just the one without conceding.
I can't get an angle into the Man Utd match as it will depend on personnel.

A very quiet day today - as a punter I will save my cash for better future opportunities

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