17/4

Blue Spinnaker 2nd yesterday but who won? -Harry the Hawk - and what price was he - 4/1. What price was he in the betting forecast - 10/1? What does that tell us? - he was a 16/1 system bet and must have been included for those following the live market. This market move was not apparent in the early market or at time of writing and flexibility is the key - see the ebtting forecast below - what price gap now when we take into account this move into 4/1
355
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Blue Spinnaker, 10/1 Amanda Carter, Harry The Hawk, 14/1 Keisha Kayleigh, Nelsons Column, 16/1 Zain, 20/1 Capped For Victory, Karmest, Wednesdays Boy, 25/1 Farne Island, Grethel, Intavac Boy, 33/1 Gala Sunday ,

William Blake won so I broke even . Beat the Boys won at Cheltenham and really I should have included that horse in calculations looking at the betting forecast - only 3 below 12/1

Otaared 2nd for each way backers

3 opportunities to trade positions in the under 2.5 goal bet with Celtic v Rangers in what was a superb game to watch. For those with a speculative mind, you could have got out at 1-1 at a price of 1.21 before the accustomed late Celtic Goal. Alas I broke even after 1-0 so will live to fight another day.
Roma did for me with a 47th minute goal.
A poor day in a week where patience should be exercised.
The treble came in with 3 wins. Will this backing 2 at 1/2 (or 4/7, 8/15) and 1 at 1/3 ( or 4/11 , 2/5 , 4/9) work long term ?

3 into 1 -1 win and a head 2nd but with the new rules both were odds on so didn't fit into the evens to 3/1

810 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Lime Tree Valley, 9/2 Leandros, Ready To Rocknroll, 5/1 Bravely Fought, Mary Josephine, 6/1 High Court Drama, 13/2 Bunsen Burner, 12/1 Fleeting Moment.

Bravely fought - WEld/Smullen each way is priced to be competitive

840
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Dimenticata, 7/2 Majestic Eviction, 5/1 Essexford, 25/1 Joyful Tears, Mad Existence, 33/1 Garrai Ard, 50/1 Ballymac Grey.

"stands out in this company" - worth backing based on ratings only?

NEWMARKET
200
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zulu Chief, 7/2 Fanjura, 6/1 De Facto, Stone Of Scone, 12/1 Unbiased, 14/1 Effortless, Khateeb, Nefaf, 16/1 Schopenhauer, 33/1 Abstract Colours, 50/1 Mr Hichens .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Fanjura and Stone Of Scone make some appeal, but ZULU CHIEF is held in some regard at Ballydoyle and can make a successful start to his career.[AC]

A BAllydoyle raid to Newmarket with Zulu Chief

420
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pipedreamer, 2/1 Multidimensional, 7/1 Phoenix Tower, 8/1 Kandidate, 14/1 Stotsfold, 16/1 Halicarnassus, Traffic Guard, 25/1 Smokey Oakey .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Cambridgeshire winner Pipedreamer looks a strong contender for Group glory this season but this is a very different sort of test, one in which MULTIDIMENSIONAL has already earned his stripes, and the Cecil 5yo looks set to make up for lost time this season

A group 3 and the front 2 look dutchable to level stakes in agrop 3 where the market can usually be relied upon - current prices on Betfair of 2.78 and 3.15 allow for a reasonable return

455
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Melodramatic, 8/1 Danae, Light Hearted, 10/1 Portodora, 12/1 Kelowna, 14/1 Alseraaj, Gulf Stream Lady, Lush, 20/1 Ivory Silk, Miss Brown To You, 25/1 Cheviot Red, Ice Bellini, Miss Clarice, Pampas, 100/1 Star Acclaim, Toon Army ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting types for the future, none more so than clear form choice MELODRAMATIC, who was introduced at Listed level last year when shaping with a great deal of promise and is one of only two in the field - the other being Miss Brown To You - with classic engagements.[FC]

Maiden Fillies - arrrrggggh - all their thoughts will be on boys and handbags ! What's with Alseraaj currently priced at 11/2 (14/1 above) - like yesterday, the 5/4 - - - 8/1 price gap is NOT apparent in the early price market. If remaining at 11/2 or thereabouts this represents a significant market move (if the betting forecaster has been accurate in his independent assessments)

Each way on ALseraaj at this stage for Stoute/Hills

Recent days have very much favoured those with the ability to follow the live betting (Harry the Hawk) and with a predominance of maidens today this will be the case again. It just makes betting a lot easier in the early part of the flat season. Following the money will show you how confident people are about horses like Amaakin - unraced on a racecourse but a "talking "horse from flat king Chapple-Hyam

My one confident bet would be the dutch on Pipedreamer and Multidimensional. Zulu chief's race includes 2 likely rivals who are difficult to keep out of calculations. How significant is Alseraaj's market move? Dimentica's race is a 3 horse race on paper.

3 into 1
none

FOOTY

Chelsea in a must win against Everton this evening.
Everton unspectacular in front of goal at late and Chelsea, well, make life difficult for themselves - a tight game in prospect and I won't desert under 2.5 goals which is 1.7 at present.
Those with an eye on the bigger price might bet some leighway out of under 1.5 goals at 2.98 - if it stays 0-0 for a while that 2.98 will reduce considerably
I'm going to lay CHelsea half time/full time here at 3.75 and hope it's tight in the first half.
Half time score dutch on 0-0 , 1-0, 0-1 can be done to level stakes to leave a small loss on 0-0 and nice profit on 1-0 and 0-1. Why not leave 0-0 out of this dutch and back it in the correct score market at 10 - if 0-0 half time the porice will have reduced considerably.

All of these bets have a running theme - a tight low goal scoring affair. I'm willing to speculate.