BRavely fought 2nd at 5/1 for each way backers - i would have loved a win! Dimenticata won
Zulu Chief was 3rd at 11/4 - not quite the 7/4 in the betting forecast and with 2 others at 4/1 in the live market these moves had to be noted - perhaps i'm writing the blog too early as I have no way of seeing any price moves which affect decisions.
Pipedreamer 3rd by a head and a neck
Alseraaj unplaced - maiden fillies eh!
The Chelsea match went like a dream bar the half time/full time. I only had 4 minutes til the lay came in, but under 1.5 goals came in, under 2.5 goals naturally came in and the 1-0 halftime more than made up for lost liabilities. So a good end to a poor day where I've found, throughout the week, difficulty in nailing the horses.
Soft ground at Ayr so I'll leave alone
535 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Elusive Dream, 7/2 Punchestowns, 10/1 Freeze Up, 14/1 Crescent Island, Leac An Scail, Pagano, 20/1 Latanier, 66/1 Radetsky March, 200/1 Sterling Moll .| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elusive Dream is clearly the one to beat on his Aintree form but, given that he was turned over at odds-on here earlier in the season and connections were keen to give the Festival a swerve in the belief that he was better on a flat track, he's anything but a certainty. The obvious alternative is PUNCHESTOWNS, who's future looks a bright one. Punchestowns each way looks obvious? Chinks in the favs armour? Loading the place only market on Punch looks the best bet with a bit on the win 610 BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mahogany Blaze, 2/1 Oslot, 4/1 Enlightenment, 5/1 Oceanos Des Obeaux, 100/1 Grand Silence .
Speculate on Oceanos des Obeaux each way 640 DUNDALK BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Tuscan Evening, 3/1 Observation Post, 5/1 Jealous Guy, 13/2 Dash Back, 8/1 Fay Street, Soap Wars, 12/1 Capall An Ibre, Young Jemmy, 14/1 Pastellrosa, 16/1 Lena Rice, 33/1 Honkey Tonk Tony, 50/1 Safe Spark, 66/1 Refuse To Sell. Observation Post place only here for Ballydoyle - BUT with evening racing, the live market will give all the clues 940 Ice Queen place only or each way if 4/1 NEWBURY 315 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bouguereau, 9/4 Patkai, 4/1 Mountain Pride, 6/1 Better Hand, 10/1 Unnefer, 16/1 Staying On, 50/1 Straight And Level .
Bougereau place only here -7 runners so we should get a reasonable price TAUNTON 730 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Twenty Degrees, 3/1 Alvino, Whitenzo, 11/2 Red Brook Lad, 14/1 Maxou Des Brosses, 20/1 Howard Howard, Knightsbridge Hill, 25/1 High Peak, Machrihanish, 33/1 Fruitfull Citizen, 100/1 Monty Be Quick .
hunter Chase - 4 horses in contention - REd Brook Lad is the biggest price so each way THIRSK 230 BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Centenerola, 7/1 Nortune, 10/1 Cathedral Walk, 12/1 Writingonthewall, 14/1 Coffee Cup, Daring Dream, Marning Star, My Mate Max, So Sublime, 20/1 Always Brave, Morocchius, Society Venue, 33/1 Zabougg, 66/1 Natural Rhythm .
Centenerola - price gapper - "hard to beat" -again a quick look at the live market will confirm whether the price gap remains. Looks a worthy punt at this stage. 3 into1 220 AYR -Asian Royale 315 NEWBURY - Bouguereau 520 TAUNTON - Farmers Lad 700 TAUNTON - Warsaw Pact FOOTY 6/5 about Le HAvre away to a stuttering Chateauroux looks a decent bet - with Nantes winning, Le Havre are only 3 games ahead but with a game in hand - they must consolidate at the top of the league and a draw last time will have to be redressed. Yet again ,with the horses, I feel we are at the behest of the live market to act as a confirmer of bets or to show any rivals to early selections |
455
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Melodramatic, 8/1 Danae, Light Hearted, 10/1 Portodora, 12/1 Kelowna, 14/1 Alseraaj, Gulf Stream Lady, Lush, 20/1 Ivory Silk, Miss Brown To You, 25/1 Cheviot Red, Ice Bellini, Miss Clarice, Pampas, 100/1 Star Acclaim, Toon Army ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting types for the future, none more so than clear form choice MELODRAMATIC, who was introduced at Listed level last year when shaping with a great deal of promise and is one of only two in the field - the other being Miss Brown To You - with classic engagements.[FC] |
Maiden Fillies - arrrrggggh - all their thoughts will be on boys and handbags ! What's with Alseraaj currently priced at 11/2 (14/1 above) - like yesterday, the 5/4 - - - 8/1 price gap is NOT apparent in the early price market. If remaining at 11/2 or thereabouts this represents a significant market move (if the betting forecaster has been accurate in his independent assessments)
Each way on ALseraaj at this stage for Stoute/Hills
Recent days have very much favoured those with the ability to follow the live betting (Harry the Hawk) and with a predominance of maidens today this will be the case again. It just makes betting a lot easier in the early part of the flat season. Following the money will show you how confident people are about horses like Amaakin - unraced on a racecourse but a "talking "horse from flat king Chapple-Hyam
My one confident bet would be the dutch on Pipedreamer and Multidimensional. Zulu chief's race includes 2 likely rivals who are difficult to keep out of calculations. How significant is Alseraaj's market move? Dimentica's race is a 3 horse race on paper.
3 into 1
none
FOOTY
Chelsea in a must win against Everton this evening.
Everton unspectacular in front of goal at late and Chelsea, well, make life difficult for themselves - a tight game in prospect and I won't desert under 2.5 goals which is 1.7 at present.
Those with an eye on the bigger price might bet some leighway out of under 1.5 goals at 2.98 - if it stays 0-0 for a while that 2.98 will reduce considerably
I'm going to lay CHelsea half time/full time here at 3.75 and hope it's tight in the first half.
Half time score dutch on 0-0 , 1-0, 0-1 can be done to level stakes to leave a small loss on 0-0 and nice profit on 1-0 and 0-1. Why not leave 0-0 out of this dutch and back it in the correct score market at 10 - if 0-0 half time the porice will have reduced considerably.
All of these bets have a running theme - a tight low goal scoring affair. I'm willing to speculate.
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