18/4

BRavely fought 2nd at 5/1 for each way backers - i would have loved a win! Dimenticata won

Zulu Chief was 3rd at 11/4 - not quite the 7/4 in the betting forecast and with 2 others at 4/1 in the live market these moves had to be noted - perhaps i'm writing the blog too early as I have no way of seeing any price moves which affect decisions.

Pipedreamer 3rd by a head and a neck

Alseraaj unplaced - maiden fillies eh!

The Chelsea match went like a dream bar the half time/full time. I only had 4 minutes til the lay came in, but under 1.5 goals came in, under 2.5 goals naturally came in and the 1-0 halftime more than made up for lost liabilities. So a good end to a poor day where I've found, throughout the week, difficulty in nailing the horses.

Soft ground at Ayr so I'll leave alone

535 CHELTENHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Elusive Dream, 7/2 Punchestowns, 10/1 Freeze Up, 14/1 Crescent Island, Leac An Scail, Pagano, 20/1 Latanier, 66/1 Radetsky March, 200/1 Sterling Moll .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elusive Dream is clearly the one to beat on his Aintree form but, given that he was turned over at odds-on here earlier in the season and connections were keen to give the Festival a swerve in the belief that he was better on a flat track, he's anything but a certainty. The obvious alternative is PUNCHESTOWNS, who's future looks a bright one. Punchestowns each way looks obvious? Chinks in the favs armour? Loading the place only market on Punch looks the best bet with a bit on the win 610 BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mahogany Blaze, 2/1 Oslot, 4/1 Enlightenment, 5/1 Oceanos Des Obeaux, 100/1 Grand Silence . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAHOGANY BLAZE simply hasn't jumped well enough to trouble the best novices but there's no reason to doubt that part of his game at this level, particularly as there's unlikely to be any great pace on in this smaller field. Not that it will be a cakewalk by any means, as all bar one of his rivals deserve respect Speculate on Oceanos des Obeaux each way 640 DUNDALK BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Tuscan Evening, 3/1 Observation Post, 5/1 Jealous Guy, 13/2 Dash Back, 8/1 Fay Street, Soap Wars, 12/1 Capall An Ibre, Young Jemmy, 14/1 Pastellrosa, 16/1 Lena Rice, 33/1 Honkey Tonk Tony, 50/1 Safe Spark, 66/1 Refuse To Sell. Observation Post place only here for Ballydoyle - BUT with evening racing, the live market will give all the clues 940 BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Masiyma, 7/2 Ice Queen, 4/1 Crystal Swan, Slan Abhaile, 7/1 Ransomed Bride, 10/1 Jaaeyza, Liturgy, 12/1 Living By Numbers, 14/1 Maddie´s Pearl, 20/1 Miss Cinderella, 25/1 Only Heather. Ice Queen place only or each way if 4/1 NEWBURY 315 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bouguereau, 9/4 Patkai, 4/1 Mountain Pride, 6/1 Better Hand, 10/1 Unnefer, 16/1 Staying On, 50/1 Straight And Level . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Mountain Pride and Patkai look sure to leave their 2yo form well behind this year, but BOUGUEREAU has already proved his wellbeing on the track this spring and can take this en route to a crack at the Italian Derby Bougereau place only here -7 runners so we should get a reasonable price TAUNTON 730 BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Twenty Degrees, 3/1 Alvino, Whitenzo, 11/2 Red Brook Lad, 14/1 Maxou Des Brosses, 20/1 Howard Howard, Knightsbridge Hill, 25/1 High Peak, Machrihanish, 33/1 Fruitfull Citizen, 100/1 Monty Be Quick . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHITENZO retains some class of old and, with conditions to suit and top yard firing, he ought to play a leading role. Alvino, Red Brook Lad and Twenty Degrees won't make it easy, though.[BDO] hunter Chase - 4 horses in contention - REd Brook Lad is the biggest price so each way THIRSK 230 BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Centenerola, 7/1 Nortune, 10/1 Cathedral Walk, 12/1 Writingonthewall, 14/1 Coffee Cup, Daring Dream, Marning Star, My Mate Max, So Sublime, 20/1 Always Brave, Morocchius, Society Venue, 33/1 Zabougg, 66/1 Natural Rhythm . SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks at the mercy of CENTENEROLA (nap) who turned in an improved display on her reappearance at Doncaster and will be 9lb higher in the weights from tomorrow. With further progress likely, she'll be hard to beat under a penalty over this longer trip on this handicap debut. Centenerola - price gapper - "hard to beat" -again a quick look at the live market will confirm whether the price gap remains. Looks a worthy punt at this stage. 3 into1 220 AYR -Asian Royale 315 NEWBURY - Bouguereau 520 TAUNTON - Farmers Lad 700 TAUNTON - Warsaw Pact FOOTY 6/5 about Le HAvre away to a stuttering Chateauroux looks a decent bet - with Nantes winning, Le Havre are only 3 games ahead but with a game in hand - they must consolidate at the top of the league and a draw last time will have to be redressed. Yet again ,with the horses, I feel we are at the behest of the live market to act as a confirmer of bets or to show any rivals to early selections

455
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Melodramatic, 8/1 Danae, Light Hearted, 10/1 Portodora, 12/1 Kelowna, 14/1 Alseraaj, Gulf Stream Lady, Lush, 20/1 Ivory Silk, Miss Brown To You, 25/1 Cheviot Red, Ice Bellini, Miss Clarice, Pampas, 100/1 Star Acclaim, Toon Army ,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some interesting types for the future, none more so than clear form choice MELODRAMATIC, who was introduced at Listed level last year when shaping with a great deal of promise and is one of only two in the field - the other being Miss Brown To You - with classic engagements.[FC]

Maiden Fillies - arrrrggggh - all their thoughts will be on boys and handbags ! What's with Alseraaj currently priced at 11/2 (14/1 above) - like yesterday, the 5/4 - - - 8/1 price gap is NOT apparent in the early price market. If remaining at 11/2 or thereabouts this represents a significant market move (if the betting forecaster has been accurate in his independent assessments)

Each way on ALseraaj at this stage for Stoute/Hills

Recent days have very much favoured those with the ability to follow the live betting (Harry the Hawk) and with a predominance of maidens today this will be the case again. It just makes betting a lot easier in the early part of the flat season. Following the money will show you how confident people are about horses like Amaakin - unraced on a racecourse but a "talking "horse from flat king Chapple-Hyam

My one confident bet would be the dutch on Pipedreamer and Multidimensional. Zulu chief's race includes 2 likely rivals who are difficult to keep out of calculations. How significant is Alseraaj's market move? Dimentica's race is a 3 horse race on paper.

3 into 1
none

FOOTY

Chelsea in a must win against Everton this evening.
Everton unspectacular in front of goal at late and Chelsea, well, make life difficult for themselves - a tight game in prospect and I won't desert under 2.5 goals which is 1.7 at present.
Those with an eye on the bigger price might bet some leighway out of under 1.5 goals at 2.98 - if it stays 0-0 for a while that 2.98 will reduce considerably
I'm going to lay CHelsea half time/full time here at 3.75 and hope it's tight in the first half.
Half time score dutch on 0-0 , 1-0, 0-1 can be done to level stakes to leave a small loss on 0-0 and nice profit on 1-0 and 0-1. Why not leave 0-0 out of this dutch and back it in the correct score market at 10 - if 0-0 half time the porice will have reduced considerably.

All of these bets have a running theme - a tight low goal scoring affair. I'm willing to speculate.