Sunday 27 April 2008

28/4

Giant among men a frustrating 4th for each way, Be smart went off a silly price and won, Duke won at 38/10, Silver shoon placed at 10/3, Jealous guy lost, Yeats won and Red maloney placed, 12\1 horse scuppered the dutch, Knowing wink placed, Tiffany unplaced,
Celtic rangers first goal bet lost, Everton unders trade came off with 0-0 half time - again the power of trading as full time score was anything but unders! Again 1-0 in the Inter match until 82nd minute - final score 2-1 - again under 2.5 goal trading a success despite the finalscore

Very uninspiring racing today with 2 all weathers and Towcester with its killer hill
320 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Apache Dawn, 5/1 Samuel Charles, 6/1 Shot To Fame, 8/1 The Jailer, 10/1 Tiepie, Wee Buns, 14/1 Victor Trumper, 16/1 Majestical, Marko Jadeo, 33/1 Da Bookie .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Apache Dawn drops into this company for the first time and if he is anywhere near his best, he will win. He hasn't given the impression of being entirely straightforward though - the fitting of headgear may help in that regard - and perhaps it is worth siding with the reliable SAMUEL CHARLES. This is tougher than the weak seller he won last time but he rarely fails to give his running round here and should go well once again

It's been an interesting pattern recently regarding seeming price gappers whose betting forecast price is NOT mirrored in the early price market. Case in point - Apache Dawn 5/2 and Samuel Charles 7/2 indicates a potential lack of confidence in the jolly.
Samule CHarles each way for me. On 3 previous occasions such profiled market leaders have been beaten

Small fields at Southwell hint at competitiveness and maybe it would be worth laying the market leaders \betting forecast favourites. As things stand it is a card which I don't want to get involved in

TOWCESTER
A killer final hill normally signals great laying shorties in running as this hill can sap horses.
210
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Learning The Blues, 5/2 Sharajan, 3/1 Palmers Peak, 12/1 Dynamic Rhythm, 20/1 Bright Green, Captain Smoothy, 25/1 Keltic Moon, Ya I Know, 33/1 Lockstone Lad, 66/1 Molly Hussey, 100/1 My Beautiful Loser, Pennine Moon .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Few that can be seriously considered and a good opportunity for LEARNING THE BLUES to get off the mark over fences if the ground is good or faster. Palmers Peak may give him most to do, though Sharajan's prospects would improve with every drop of rain

Pipe horse at the head of the marketand a decent enough place only opportunity. At Towcester I do like to find course winners.-none in this race though
Windsor starts with a 5 furlong debutant maiden race with 2 runners only having previous outings - watchword here is market moves a la 16/1 system
Yarmouth will no doubt have Derek "that's one for the judge" Tommo commentating - about the only highlight!
330
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Cape, 4/1 Blue Tomato, Ingleby Arch, Royal Rock, 8/1 Ajigolo, 10/1 Orpenindeed, 16/1 Fyodor, 20/1 Classic Encounter .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Slower ground would have been ideal for the returning Royal Rock and Cape, while Ajigolo flopped on his turf comeback. Northern raiders Ingleby Arch and BLUE TOMATO both look solid enough, with preference for the latter as long as there's isn't too much ra

Royal Rock at 21/10 - Cape might be a non runner - would have been a potential 4 horse race -worth following the market move - again preference for the place only -being safe and with safety comes less of a return

3 into 1
28/4 - 330 Yarm - Cape
27/4 - Kew Jumper - 5th 11/4
26/4
3.55 San: MEDICINE PATH - 7th 15/8
5.05 San: CAPE HAWK - 5th 15/8
4.25 Lei: HARRY THE HAWK - 3rd 10/11
7.35 Wol: ONE NIGHT IN PARIS - 1st 11/10
8.05 Wol: BOOKIEBASHER BABE - 2nd 5/4
25/4 - none


FOOTY

REmember that treble? Well there's a chance tonight - it's on the 3rd stage of the loss retrieval cycle
18:00 AaB Aalborg vs AC Horsens 1/2 11/4 11/2
18:00 Falkenberg vs Sirius 17/10 12/5 13/10
18:00 Qviding vs Angelholm 5/6 5/2 11/4
18:00 Norrkoping vs Orebro 5/4 9/4 21/10
18:00 Gothenburg vs Sundsvall 2/5 16/5 13/2
18:00 Djurgarden vs Ljungskile 3/10 15/4 9/1
18:00 Viking vs Valerenga 11/10 23/10 23/10
19:00 Helsingborg vs Malmo FF 6/5 23/10 21/10
19:00 Kosice vs Zilina 5/2 11/5 10/11
19:15 Freiburg vs Greuther Furth evens 11/5 11/5
19:30 Grenoble vs Ajaccio 4/7 9/4 9/2
19:45 West Brom vs Southampton 4/7 3/1 9/2
19:45 Vitoria Setubal vs Amadora 4/7 12/5 4/1
20:00 Derby vs Arsenal 11/1 9/2 1/4

Which 3 of the above should I select

Well 3 home teams - 2 at 1/2 or 4\7 or equivalent - Aab Alborg is the first then , West BRom versus Southampton - added incentive of automatic promotion for the win? -BUT Saints fighting for their lives - if Le Tiss (Guernsey's finest ) was playing, I'd back them
Djurgarden is the 3rd at 3/10 to make the treble - will it be successful?

One game today stands out - Arsenal away to Derby - fill yer boots? BEtfair is unavailable - chance for an enhanced bet? Over 3.5 goals with an eye on trading , or Arse halftime/fulltime should enhance the 1/4


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