Thursday 1 May 2008

Rosaleen won so the market move was significant - Cesare won but the dutch would really have turned to Don't panic with the non runner in Royal Oath

Alaneed unplaced for the Weld/Smullen each way - The Dial House and Mr Kipling a no bet as the latter a non runner.

Under 2.5 goals came in the Liverpool match and was tradeable on a few occasions during the match

250 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Maimoona, 5/1 Doric Lady, 13/2 Elzain, 7/1 Irish Music, 8/1 Colour Of Money, Compton Rose, 12/1 Portrush Storm, 20/1 In Toto, 25/1 Tantris, 33/1 Delerios, Filemot .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAIMOONA has valuable experience of the conditions as well as the best form and she will be difficult to beat with her stable in such good form.[

Potential price gapper - but in a maiden - price gap still remains -personal preference for the place only, but also carries a degree of SPotlight confidence "will be difficult to beat"

550 GREAT LEIGHS

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Boz, 7/2 War Of The Roses, 8/1 Cavallini, 10/1 Mind How You Go, They All Laughed, 12/1 Tritonville Lodge, 16/1 Savannah .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOZ (nap) did nothing but improve in 2007 and, with a promising reappearance behind him, he is fancied to return to winning ways now back up in trip. War Of The Roses has been a model of consistency this winter and may give him most to think about.

Boz was the kind of horse Jamie Spencer stayed at Wolves til 920pm last year just to ride - he's back on today and looks to have an obvious chance

710 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Heathcote, 5/1 Cape Greko, 11/2 Muhtenbar, 7/1 Misbehaviour, 8/1 Supercilious, 10/1 Royal Wedding, 16/1 Tancredi, 20/1 Ramvaswani, 25/1 Champagne Rossini .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Misbehaviour is respected in current form, but he lacks the class of another chase debutant HEATHCOTE, who stands out on his superior hurdles form and will be hard to beat with a clear round

Potential price gapper here with those trigger words " will be hard to beat" - ideally place only given the race type

Soft grtound at Leicester means I would prefer laying favs in sprints more than backing them

TIPPERARY

455 - Coat of arms for Aiden O'Brien in a race where the front 3 are very tight indeed price wise so probably no involvement from me but interesting to see ,as before , how Aiden O'Brien and Weld/Smullen horses get on

630 - ANAWEEM each way - Weld/Smuillen





















320
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cesare, 9/4 Royal Oath, 4/1 Don´t Panic, 8/1 Ordnance Row, 12/1 Caldra, 20/1 Drumfire .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This will probably develop into a battle between CESARE and Royal Oath who both have a good record on this track. The top weight was value for more than his length-and-a-half winning margin over the Hunt Cup hero in a Group 2 here last summer after encountering trouble in running and his sharp turn of foot can prove decisive today even though 7lb worse off.[AC]

A class 1 race so the odds should accurately reflect chances. Cesare and Royal oath are dutchable, but the Betfair market indicates that don't panic should be competitive - if you want to speculate on the of chance there is an upset, then level stakes the front 3 leaves a big payout on Don't Panic


BALLINROBE

Again look out for Weld/Smullen and Aiden O'Brien
535 - Alaneed


GREAT LEIGHS
520
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Aromatherapy, Tableau Vivant, 6/1 Illusion, 9/1 Totem Flower, 10/1 Mignonette, 12/1 Dolcetto, 16/1 Sabancaya, 20/1 Spiritofthestorm, 25/1 Let Me Pass, 33/1 Nisbah, 100/1 Bunty Malenoir .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AROMATHERAPY showed sufficient promise as a juvenile to suggest she's capable of making it third time lucky on her return. Tableau Vivant is an obvious danger on form and, of the newcomers, Illusion is most interesting

The front 2 are 9/4 with 2 other horses at 6/1 and the rest perceived outsiders. Given the maiden status of this race, an each way punt on Illusion and Totem flower - hopefully one will place and both will be able to rough up the market leaders

550
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 The Dial House, 7/2 Mrs Kipling, 5/1 Barbee, 8/1 White Shift, 12/1 Lonsdale Lad, 20/1 Ready To Prime, 50/1 Twos And Eights .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The promising THE DIAL HOUSE will find this less competitive than his encouraging AW debut assignment and can use his experience edge to get the job done.[BDO

Money for Mrs Kipling - curently 2/1 -prices 2.04 for the dial house and 3.1 for Mrs Kipling. Using fAIRBOT I can dutch these 2 horses - or with level stakes leave a marginal gain on the Dial House and a big payout on Mrs Kipling

Soft ground at Pontefract would make me keen to lay Art Princess in the maiden in the first if odds are short enough

FOOTY
Any reason to desert under 2.5 goals in the Liverpool Chelsea match ? Chelsea at home ,yes, don't lose...?

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