Manchester United
Last six: WWWLDD
Last six Champions League games: WDWWWD
Injuries: None
Suspensions: None
Chelsea
Last six: DWDWDW
Last six Champions League games: DDWLWD
Injuries: Carvalho (back, slight doubt), Drogba (knee, doubtful), Terry (arm, doubtful)
Suspensions: None
Ten reasons Manchester United will win:
1. Manchester United are unbeaten in this season's Champions League.
2. They have also kept clean sheets in all of their last five games in the competition.
3. No team from London has ever won the Champions League - clubs from the North West account for seven of England's ten successes.
4. Manchester United have been to the final of three previous European tournaments and have won on each occasion.
5. The last four first-time finalists - Arsenal, Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen and Valencia - have all lost which doesn't bode well for Chelsea.
6. They have only failed to score in two games from December onwards while Chelsea have failed to on five occasions.
7. Manchester United won both the Premier League and the Champions League in 1999, showing they are capable of winning the double.
8. They have only lost one game all season while Wayne Rooney has been on the pitch - the FA Cup quarter-final to Portsmouth.
9. Throughout this season, whenever Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in two straight games for Manchester United, he has gone on to score in the third.
10. Didier Drogba has only ever scored once against Manchester United in eight games.
» Two of the last four Champions League winners have completed the double that season - Barcelona in 2006 and Porto in 2004 - notably both beating teams that had qualified as runners-up in the final.
» In the last ten years, four of the Champions League winners had finished top of their domestic league too, producing more winners than any other league position.
» Three of the last four teams to reach the Champions League final in the year they won the league have gone on to win the final.
» The only losers over that period - Juventus in 2003 - were only beaten on penalties.
» The last two teams to win the league the year they qualified for the Champions League and in the year of the competition - Porto in 2004 and Barcelona in 2006 - lifted the cup.
But unfortunately for Chelsea, runners-up don't win the Champions League...
» The last runners-up to win the Champions League were Juventus way back in 1996 and even then it took a penalty shoot-out.
» Since then only two league runners-up have reached the final - Bayer Leverkusen in 2002 and AC Milan in 2005 - but both have lost.
» Similarly, 2000 was the last time a team who qualified for the Champions League with a second-placed finish went on to win the competition.
» Since then Monaco (2004) and Arsenal (2006) have reached the final and lost.
Manchester United:»
Cristiano Ronaldo has never scored against Chelsea.
» Ryan Giggs has only scored in back-to-back games once in the last three years.
» Wayne Rooney's goal last month against Chelsea was his first goal against them in 16 career encounters.
» Paul Scholes has appeared in 13 Cup finals and Community Shields but has only scored once.
» Most likely scorer: Carlos Tevez has scored two goals in his three matches against Chelsea
Chelsea:
» Didier Drogba has only scored once in eight games against Manchester United, though that was not in 90 minutes.
» Joe Cole has faced Manchester United on 22 occasions but has scored just two goals.
» Since moving to Chelsea, Michael Ballack has found the net against 14 different teams but Sheffield United are the only team he has scored against in more than one meeting.
» Solomon Kalou isn't a big game goalscorer. Since moving to Chelsea he has failed to find the net against any of the Big Four.
» Frank Lampard hasn't scored in eight Cup finals or Community Shield games.
» Most likely scorer: Nicolas Anelka has scored against Man United on six separate occasions - four times for Arsenal, once for Man City and once for Bolton - but is likely to be a sub.
» There has only been one goalless final in the last 15 years; to no one's great astonishment the all-Italian 2003 final between Milan and Juve of 2003.
» Don't expect a one sided affair on Wednesday night - of the last eight finals only one has been decided by a margin greater than single goal.
» Betting on under/ over 2.5 goals?
The last four finals have all seen three goals or more.
» Betting on the time of the last goal? You may want to know that there have been five goals in the final quarter of an hour in the last four finals.
» Certain bookies will give you 20/1 on a hat-trick occurring on Wednesday night but bear in mind nobody has scored a European Cup Final Hat-trick since Prati for Milan back in 1969.
» Arsenal are the only English team to have been involved in a goalless European final of any sort.
» The most common number of goals in the final during the last decade is three, which has happened on six occasions.
» Five goals haven't been scored in a final since 1968 (Manchester United/ Benfica.) There have only been more than five goals in the final on four occasions, and only once since 1962 (Milan/Liverpool 2005.)
» You have to go back to 1998 for the last time the opening goal in the final wasn't scored in the first half.
» Four times in the last ten years the first goal has been scored in the first ten minutes.
» It may be unwise to read too much into who scores the first goal of the game – three of the last seven teams to score first have gone on to lose the game.
» Only one final in the last twenty years has seen a penalty successfully converted in normal time – that was the Bayern Munich/ Valencia final of 2001 where two penalties were scored.
Half-time/Full-time:
» The last five Man United/Chelsea games, and seven of the last eight, have had the same outcome at both half-time and full-time.
» Similarly, the last four cup ties between the two have had the same outcome at half and full-time, as have nine of the last ten.
» Five of Manchester United's last six European games have had the same outcome at half-time and full-time - three as win-win and two as draw-draw.
» Only two of Manchester United and Chelsea's 24 Champions League games this season have seen a complete turnaround - Manchester United overcame a 1-0 half-time deficit to beat Sporting 2-1 in the group stage and Chelsea blew a 1-0 half-time lead to lose their quarter-final first-leg 2-1 in Fenerbahce.
» Four of the last six Champions League finals have had the same outcome at half-time and full-time.
BUT!
» Chelsea have led four of their last five Champions League games at half-time but they drew one of those and lost one.
» Four of the last five Champions League semi-finals featuring an English club have witnessed seen different outcomes at half-time and full-time.
» Two of those four were complete turnarounds (Manchester United against Bayern Munich and Barcelona against Arsenal), one saw Liverpool come from behind to draw with AC Milan, one saw Liverpool drawing with Juventus at half-time only to lose.
» The one that stayed the same was last year's final where Liverpool trailed AC Milan at half-time and full-time.
The occasion: Champions League Final Bookings
» The only person to be sent off in a Champions League final was Jens Lehmann in 2006.
» In the last seven years, the number of bookings has always been between two and no club has had more than three players booked.
» In the past 16 years no team has suffered more than four bookings and only five of the 32 finalists in that period have received that many.
» The average number of booking per final in the last six years (three) is less than the average in the ten years prior to that (4.6).
» The last four English finalists have received no more than two yellow cards in the final, though in 2006 Arsenal had a red card to add to those yellows.
The teams: Man United/Chelsea Bookings
» Manchester United had nobody booked in their last Champions League Final back in 1999.
» The last ten encounters between the two sides has featured just one red card - John Obi Mikel's in September 2007.
» In only two of those ten games have Manchester United received more bookings than Chelsea - both at Stamford Bridge.
» In the last nine between the teams Chelsea average 3.22 a game compared to United's 2.44 - totally 5.67 bookings in total a game.
» Chelsea's average 3.2 bookings in their last five games at neutral grounds - more than their opponents on four out of five occasions.
The referee: Lubos Michel
» Michel hasn't booked more than six players in the last 14 European and international matches he's refereed.
» But he has sent off four players in the last five Champions League games he has officiated in.
» Michel has officiated two Brit-on-Brit Champions League games, booking just three players in Man United's game with Celtic last season and just one in Liverpool's controversial 1-0 win over Chelsea in 2005.
» All three Champions League games Michel has controlled this year have seen exactly five bookings - his average in all European and international matches this season is four.
» And his last 11 Champions League games have witnessed five bookings or less.
Get yer laughing gear round all that! Personally I see tonight's game as overflowing with opportnities, perhaps not to score big, but to enhance the betting bank
Let's start with the obvious - under 2.5 goals is a miserly 1.52 at present and represents an ideal trading platform I feel. Looking historically at the 2 sides ( and forgeting the unique circumstances of today's game, ) goals are scored LATE - 45th minute +.
Remember, with trading, there only has to be a HINT that our bet will come in for prices to fall and a tradeable opportunity to arise.
I think this will be a tight, cautious first half and the 1.52 will reduce sufficiently to allow trading. What more speculative punters might consider is backing at 1.52 for unders and covering the 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines at 15 and 12 on betfair.
This will allow the opportunity to watch the game rather than trade. Will one team score 3? I can't see it personally.
THe "shown a card" market is very interesting. We all know about Paul Scholes' ,shall we say, enthusiasm in the tackle - boy he's a good footballer but he still can't tackle without getting the attention of the ref. At 3.3 it's a fun bet I suppose.
HAlf with most goals has historically been the 2nd half, both in the Final matches ,and in domestic tussles between the 2 sides. Available at 2.2
Half time score - 0-0 at 2.42 for £14.40 returns 43p
1-0 at 5.3 for £10 returns £17.67
0-1 at 6 returns £24.32 on BEtfair .
Alternatively reducing stakes on the 1-0 to £5 and the 0-1 to £4 effectively breaks even on these and loads profit on the more likely 0-0
Half time/full time. Can we take a draw at half time as a given? If so, the dutch on Draw/Draw at 4.8, Draw/Chelsea at 7.6, and Draw/United at 6.8 can be done to level stakes.
First Goal Odds I would be looking at a dutch of
31-40 minutes at 8.2
41-50 minutes at 10.5
51-60 minutes at 13
61-70 minutes at 15.5
71-80 minutes at 19
81-full time at 19.5
Level stakes can be done because the shortest price is 8.2
Plenty to get your teeth into, I would say!
Indicative of the racing today, Ayr has a maiden and the rest handicaps!
225 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Mr Jack Daniells, 7/2 Lindseyfield Lodge, 10/1 Cast Iron Casey, Gondolin, 14/1 White Lightening, 25/1 Asrar, Steel Man .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is always the chance that MR JACK DANIELLS will be found out under a huge weight but he has looked right back on track recently and has to be given the vote to complete the hat-trick |
Mr Jack Daniells - on a hatrick and carrying 12 stone 5 - a full 10 lbs more than next best. Layable at 4/7? I think so. 1.67 on betfair - nice low liabilities and the hope that the weight finds him out. It is, I would suggest, more difficult to run up a winning sequence over obstacles than over the flat
300 - Contact dancer the most likeliest winner but at 1.15 over 3 miles is layable - a bet to nothing - small liability - big upside - it just takes a fall or a mistake and he's toast and 3 miles is a LONG way!
LEOPARDSTOWN
The Irish boys are out again.
630 - Egypt and April - albeit in a small field maiden. Live market really a necessity here and if possible, dutching these 2 to level stakes. If both are too short, I'd leave alone
700
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Prince Shaun, 3/1 The Loan Express, 4/1 Greatwallofchina, 5/1 Bett´s Spirit, Fourpenny Lane, 6/1 Dohasa, 66/1 Honkey Tonk Tony
Great wall of China and Fourpennylane look backable each way ( I hope that's the case)
730 - Dermot Weld has Kalinka MAlinka again looks an each way price at present
800 - Miss Chapparal and Mystical Lady each way
830 - BEachbound each way
900- Add wings each way
I hope the Irish combos provide some winners tonight although the handicaps they appear in are wide open. I'm looking for a shock biggish priced winner and hope it will happen
SEDGEFIELD - Hunter Chase then, wait for it folks - the best race since the Gold Cup - the
John Wade For Equine Fibre And Rubber Conditional Jockeys' Selling Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) (Class 5)
Hmmm - TAXI!
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