Saturday 3 May 2008

3/5

Well the 700 feaatured the 3 at the head of the market and my speculative bet on 2nd and 3rd market leaders didn't come off. Hint though in live market as Starburst diamond was backed into 15/8
At Cork, Dream Forever placed for each way backers, Harrington won at 9/2, and Ransomed bride placed 2nd at 4/1 for the place only bet so a nice haul for the Weld/Smullen horses
Slam Dunk finally got that 1 at 8/13 ( apparently traded at 25/1 in running - d'oh!), Princely Hero unplaced at 7/1
Hawk Gold was a no bet having gone back to 33/1, but level stakes on Lupinar and Special DAy would have produced marginal profit. Bold Trump another who went back to 33/1 and was no longer a market mover qualifier.
Nice profit on Masaaleek, and the market move on Go nani go was founded as the horse won the maiden.
First Buddy was imperious and backed heavily into 1/2 - a multiple handicap winner just starting. Compare to Cochlear at Dundalk who was on a 4 timer and running 26 lbs higher than his 1st win - a great multiple handicapper lay who came nowhere.
One lay in France came off as Nantes went down 2-1.
750 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Iguazu Falls, 3/1 Gaspar Van Wittel, 4/1 Redolent.

3 horse race and no need to desert the jolly who has Frankie on board

GOODWOOD has the dreaded SCOOP 6 sign against some races indicating that these are tough puzzles to solve

230
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Milne Graden, 6/1 Robustian, 7/1 Speedy Sam, 17/2 Formax, 12/1 Crossbow Creek, Zero Cool, 20/1 Artreju, 25/1 Invention .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a very competitive handicap for the grade and a good opportunity for MILNE GRADEN to preserve his unbeaten record, albeit with the sort of enticing profile which could well mean that he goes off very short in the betting. Milne Graden was a strong eye-catcher when winning very well at Doncaster in October and already looked just the sort for one of this season's top handicaps even then. Crossbow Creek may be next best

is just such a race - a potential price gapper here but with a 190 day absence a leap of faith is required. Multiple winner with a long absence to overcome. No bet for me BUT not a lay either

RAces such as the 520 should involve the front 2 in the betting but I may lay the 3rd fav Rio Royale albeit at odds which are none too enticing for the layer. Forecast and reverse forceat on the front 2 may be my option here

HEXHAM
HEavy grond is offputting on such a busy day where betting opportunities are clearly available elsewhere

800
Back Silver BReeze if 4 or thereabouts to place? A speculative bet given heavy ground conditions and the hope that one of the 2 market leaders falters

NEWMARKET
2000 guineas meeting sees New Approach installed as the jolly in the main event at 325. Aiden O'Brien makes an appearance with 2 but I feel there are stronger alternatives and Ibn Khaldoun each way couldbe an option here for Godolphin who have been very bullish indeed.
Solid bet looks to be New approach to place albeit at restrictive odds in the hope that the market becomes more accurate the better the race.

400
Highly speculative each way bet with Northern Dare at 8/1 ( the fav!)

235 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Criterion, 7/2 Sphere, 4/1 Stock Market, 5/1 Wells Lyrical, 12/1 St Johns Wood, 14/1 Cheers For Thea, 16/1 Eddie Dowling, 25/1 River Danube, 33/1 Lyon´s Hill, 50/1 Key Decision, Osteopathic Care, 100/1 Feeling Peckish, Miss Tiddlypush .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is unlikely to be much between old rivals Stock Market and Criterion but preference is for another Newmarket raider, SPHERE, who made a promising start to her career and represents a trainer whose runners often improve with experienc

Although a maiden it looks to involve 4 and I'm taken by Stock market each way with a hint of a market move. The fav is solid though ,now trading at 15/8

NOTE - market moves must be looked for given it's a maiden

FOOTY

Although there are some interesting profitable opportunities today with quality racing, there should be equally as many in the footy.
Interesting start with Man Utd facing their bogey team West Ham who have won the last 3 encounters!. BUT this team is ravaged by injury and capitulated a 2 goal lead against Newcastle last week.
This sequence should end now with United restoring parity. Given the context of this game, defeat is out of the question but will there be a Champions League hangover? If anything the team will have gained more from the win this week.
Tricky to find enhanced bets here as it's 1.63 for over 2.5 goals and 1.63 for Man Utd half time/full time -the latter will enhance the 1.19 match odds.
Perhaps another venture into first goal odds laying 1-10 minutes could pay off as West Ham play 5 across midfield - it'll be a LONG 10 minutes!

Celtic's last away match at Motherwell saw a great return to form with a 4-1 victory - can this be replicated only 2 or so weeks later? The 3 points is a must despite Rangers games to play advantage. Celtic/Celtic and Draw/Celtic half time full time dutches could work with the odds favourable - preference for break even on the Draw/Celtic
Just incase their replicate the recent match, over 3.5 goals with an eye on trading at 2.94 represents a good bet (to trade)

Fulham must win - squeaky bum time BIG TIME and under 2.5 goals could be the call here with both teams desparate NOT to concede -again a view to trading at half time

Inverness surely wil beat Gretna but the latter have been resilient buggers - Custers Last stand -2 draws now in games where the opposition were similarly priced. I'm hoping Caley will replicate their last result at Gretna - chance on halftime/fulltime at 2.22

Sunderland are safe now and are away from home to Bolton who must win. 1.81 for under 2.5 goals to trade looks the way in again - remember Sunderland have a classy keeper.







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