Sunday, 4 May 2008

4/5

Well the whole point of following O'Brien and Weld /Smullen was because they would get some big priced winners - and so it came with Henrey the Navigator at 11/1 - D'oh! Should have stuck with my "system" instead of second guessing - lesson learned and also it shows you that these trainer/jockey combos will compensate for losers with big priced winners where they're not expected!
The horse racing was poor for me yesterday, compensated again by a great performance with the footy betsGOWRAN PARK
200 - Weld/Smullen on Mr Topaz - fancied but in a debutant maiden in soft ground - 11/4 currently hints at place only betting with a little on the win

305 - Rock Critic each way - again looks like the horse can be competitive at least for a place

335
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Hebridean, 7/4 Unwritten Rule, 5/1 Ebadiyan, 6/1 Minneapolis, 10/1 Kitty Hawk Miss, 12/1 Starluck.
3 horses for O'Brien and Weld/Wmullen and they have the 2 market principles - at current prices of 2.78 and 3.15 both can be backed to level stakes, but again soft ground is a featre

410 - Chinesewhite and soinlovewithyou - the former backed to win at 7/4 currently and the latter an each way shot

445 - Adored, Love to dance and Perihilion for Aiden O'Brien, and Smullen is on board Lakil Princess - all each way prices

520 - Beachbound for Weld/Smullen

As we saw yesterday, if I stck to my guns, I'd have bagged an 11/1 winner. A difficult day with soft ground but let's see how these guys progress

440 HAmilton
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Evelith Regent, 9/4 Lochiel, 10/1 Livvy Inn, 14/1 Prince Rhyddarch, 20/1 Arch, 25/1 Wee Ellie Coburn, 50/1 Deer Park Lord .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In an uncompetitive race it's hard to get away from bumper winner EVELITH REGENT, who showed more than enough on his Flat debut to suggest he's a player in this company.
Price gapper/HTB in Eleveth Regent - all tips - top rpr - postdata selection -
NEGATIVES - Lochiel nearby but out to 3/1 at present - maiden in a poor class
2 horse race so a 50/50 chance and 8/11 is reasonable if these HTB selections are used independently with a good staking plan

240 NEWMARKET
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Getaway, 4/1 Galactic Star, 5/1 Sixties Icon, 8/1 Tranquil Tiger, 10/1 Malt Or Mash, 14/1 Dragon Dancer, 16/1 Gower Song, Yellowstone, 25/1 Balkan Knight, 33/1 Under The Rainbow .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Andre Fabre's first step in reinventing GETAWAY from stayer into 1m4f horse had an eyecatching result in the Arc when he entered the straight last and ended up in a close and fast-closing fourth. The trainer won this in 2006 with Shirocco in the same colours and has a decent chance to take it again. The chief stumbling block - a big one - would be Sixties Icon if he returned to the form which won him this in style last year. Galactic Star is a Group winner in waiting
Galactic star each way

320
The 1000 guineas and Savethisdancefor me and Lady Deauville are the O'Brien representatives , both backable each way although one is at 150/1!

FOOTY

Unappealing betting mediums at this time of year -Liverpool are at home and must be feeing the match last week? Man City are in turmoil though and worth opposing? Rangers must win but their game congestion is a worry - 8/11 is enticing though
The Arse are at home against Everton.
A chance to see if the treble bet will work today - remember 2 teams at home at 4/7 or near, and 1 at 1/3 or near

Arsenal vs Everton 8/13 13/5 5/1
Naestved vs Olstykke 1/3 18/5 13/2
Palace vs Burnley 4/11 3/1 6/1
Sheffield Weds vs Norwich 4/7 5/2 4/1
Wolves vs Plymouth 4/9 11/4 5/1
Parma vs Genoa 4/9 11/4 5/1
Liverpool vs Manchester City 8/13 5/2 5/1
Sevilla vs Valladolid 1/2 5/2 5/1
Villarreal vs Getafe 4/7 5/2 4/1
Racing Santander vs Murcia 2/5 3/1 11/2
Barcelona vs Valencia8/13 5/2 7/2

So ,my treble will be Naestved, along with Sevilla and Wolves - around a 2/1 payout





















All in all ,not a day that I want to get heavily involved in at all - all of the O'Brien and Weld/Smullen bets are speculative and open to fluctuations (as we see!)

355
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sakhee´s Secret, 7/2 Zidane, 11/2 Enticing, 10/1 Captain Gerrard, 12/1 Judd Street, Reverence, 14/1 Hoh Hoh Hoh, Rowe Park, 33/1 Matsunosuke, 40/1 Conquest, 50/1 Biniou .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAKHEE'S SECRET should be a cut above these rivals on anything like his best form, even allowing for having his first run at this trip. Zidane may be best of the others, though there is still time for Enticing to live up to the high promise of her reappearance last year
A 3 horse race? Enticing at 11/2 each way would be the call



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