Elsewhere, Miesko unplaced, Austontatious won, Khateeb won, "so many quick races" did for Stevie Thunder, and the day ended with a nice Draw/Chelsea half time full time result as they asserted in the 2nd half.
Somewheree in an old blog was the Ronnie bet and he came good with the minimum of fuss ,meaning BBC2 had to quickly put on some crap repeat to fill in the time they had allotted for an Ali Carter wonder revival but he was a rabbit stuck in headlights yesterday!
So, a Monday worth staying away from B and Q and betting !
635 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Court Of Appeal, 7/1 Let It Be, 8/1 Bijou Dan, Brastar Jelois, 10/1 Eijaaz, 14/1 Goldan Jess, Skye But N Ben, 16/1 Annibale Caro, On Every Street, 33/1 Ellies Faith, Tykie Two, 66/1 Channel Crossing, Pendragon, 100/1 Never Cross, 200/1 Vie A Deux .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for COURT OF APPEAL to repeat last year's success in this event. He confirmed his wellbeing when successful at Musselburgh last time and has conditions to suit here, whereas most of his main rivals on form have something to prove |
Price gapper - let it be close at 13/2 currently,
POSITIVES - 25 day course and distance winner - winner last time out - progressive form - 12/13 tips - top RPR - postdata selection -
NEGATIVES - claimer - hint of soft ground?
4/5 is okay if using HTB selections in a staking plan like the fasttrackplans.
735
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cavendish, 5/1 Aston Lad, Vice Admiral, 6/1 Chip N Pin, 12/1 Bronze Dancer, Just Waz, 14/1 Coronado´s Gold, Toss The Caber, 20/1 Foxxy, 25/1 Compton Commander, 33/1 Senor Set .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Newmarket raider Cavendish is the only one of these who comes here at the top of his game and he clearly has to be respected, but there will be many trainers wishing the handicapper was as lenient with their horses as he has been with VICE ADMIRAL and Mick Easterby's gelding is expected to make a bold bid now reunited with last year's winning rider Dale Gibson. |
Another hint that Cavendish is opposable - currently 3/1 early doors ( compare that with the 7/4 betting forecast and it's bye bye price gapper) 3 before 12/1 and I'll go along with Spotlight here with Vice admiral, but will entertain laying Cavendish - these opposite moves have proven to be very accurate in determining a shorties likely running
835
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ramaad, 11/4 Marning Star, 9/2 Dubai Meydan, 8/1 Carr On Fire, 12/1 Imperial Djay, 25/1 Ezdeyaad, Jakam, 50/1 Crossing Bridges, White Elephant, 66/1 Noche De Reyes, 100/1 Paris Hall, Watch This Place, 200/1 Fluoree, Miss Understanding, Mystik Megan .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not much strength in depth here and an obvious chance for RAMAAD (nap) to get off the mark and continue the good run of his yard (four winners last week). Dubai Meydan was very disappointing at Southwell last week and a bigger threat is likely to come from Marning Star despite the drop in trip.[ |
The race is a long way away but why is Ezdeyaad currently 14/1? If remaining so, worthy of each way support as this is a maiden and this could be a market move
CHEPSTOW
240
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nisaal, 5/2 Border Owl, 4/1 Murcar, 10/1 Themwerethedays, 14/1 Asian Classic, 16/1 Abstract Colours, Shaama Rose, 20/1 Loveofmylife, 33/1 Berry Pomeroy, Princess Flame, 50/1 Heartsanddiamonds, 100/1 Hill Of Clare, Persian Wish .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact that Nisaal was sent off a shortish price on his Newmarket debut suggests he is well regarded and he looks capable of much better. Murcar should be up to winning races and can go well, but BORDER OWL improved with each start at two and can make a winning reappearance.[PSm] |
Nisaal out to 9/4, border Owl out to 7/2 but Murcar also 7/2 and it is the latter I will go for, preferably each way, or a derivative eg place only with a bit on for the win on Betfair
620 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Bon Viveur, Haunted House, 6/1 Et Maintenant, 13/2 Whatcanisay, 7/1 Wild Power, 8/1 High Life, Musical Gift, 10/1 Charming Oscar, Pen Gwen, 14/1 Kova Hall .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these have questions to answer on some score. Haunted House was tempting on his return but a chance is taken on BON VIVEUR, who should be capable of doing something off this mark if taking to fences and there's good reason to believe the return of cheekpieces will help him |
10 runners and 5/1 the field indicates the market leaders can be taken on surely with the "outsider " at 14/1
I'll go somewhere in the middle with a lucky dip at Wild Power each way
650
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Oumeyade, 8/1 Cava Bien, 10/1 Migwell, 12/1 Blaze Ahead, Bob Mountain, Cullahill, 14/1 Mister Sher, 20/1 Bengal Bullet, 25/1 Beau Supreme, Kristoffersen, 33/1 Ladino, 50/1 Grave Doubts .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No surprise to see OUMEYADE (nap) out again so soon as connections look to strike again before the handicapper hammers him and he should take some stopping. Mister Sher is the best alternative. |
Price gapper here who "should take some stopping" - Culahill at 7/1 an obvious each way alternative incase the market move is accurate - Ruby on the jolly and at 4/7 worthy of investment albeit over 3 miles
250 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Flight Leader, 7/1 Palmers Peak, 10/1 Mr Preacher Man, 16/1 Treasured Memories, 33/1 Allborn Lad, 40/1 Cupid´s Mission, Garleton, 100/1 The Rede Mouse .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Based on his old hurdles form, FLIGHT LEADER has over three stone in hand of his rivals and, while it's not certain he retains all of that ability, he probably wouldn't need to run anywhere near that level to make a winning chasing debut. Palmers Peak could be the forecast material. |
8 runners allows for each way thievery - Mr Preacher Man each way just before the 16/1 horse
FOOTY
Another treble with potential here -
| 19:45 | Sion vs Thun | 8/15 | 13/5 | 9/2 |  | |
| 19:45 | FC Zurich vs St Gallen | 8/15 | 13/5 | 9/2 |
| 16:30 | Kaiserslautern vs St Pauli | 2/5 | 11/4 | 6/1 |
2 home teams at 4/7 (or thereabouts ) and one at 1/3 (or thereabouts) -again probably pays around 2/1 or 3.29 decimal.
A system for a full season next year to see how it performs - more out of curiosity the above bets given I am no expert on football from Cookoo clock country
330
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Austintatious, 5/1 Visions Of Johanna, 7/1 Amhooj, Travelling Light, 12/1 De Facto, James Dean, Sainglend, 20/1 Royal Straight, 25/1 Cheney Manor, 33/1 Misselliebee, 66/1 Tallest Peak ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s hard to oppose the Group One entered AUSTINTATIOUS given his effort behind Twice Over when last seen and the fact that he’s bred to be just as effective on sand. Visions Of Johanna is an intriguing debutant and any market support would be significant. |
Price gap - "hard to oppose" - "group one entered" - currently 10/11
This is a maiden race though so market moves must be factored in, and we can only do that with the live market, but as things stand, Frankie's mount at 10/11 is reasonable enough
400
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Khateeb, 9/2 Barliffey, Barricado, 6/1 Cotton Reel, 14/1 Ejeed, Media Stars, Parson´s Punch, 25/1 Harveys Spirit, 50/1 Buck Cannon, Mellifluous, Sun In Splendour .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KHATEEB (nap) put up a very promising performance in the second division of the Wood Ditton on his debut, marking him down as a sure-fire maiden winner, and he’s taken to give another boost to that form. His main rivals on form are also switching from turf to AW and Barricado looks the most interesting one. |
This is one of those races where near market rival is a non runner, surely making Khateeb's chances a little more straightforward. Alas his price reflects this and this could be a good back to lay off in running for me. The horse doesn't have to win, just run well enough for the price to become tradeable. When we're backing, we must look to lay at a lower price in running
345 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Stevie Thunder, 13/2 The Jostler, 8/1 Ninefineirishmen, Premier Danseur, 12/1 Afram Blue, Miss Mujanna, 14/1 Romany Princess, 16/1 Clifton Dancer, Dancing Marabout, Semah Harold, 20/1 Indian Diva, Ten Pole Tudor, 25/1 Gross Prophet, Shamrock Lady .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite the worry about whether this fourth race in about a month will prove too much, STEVIE THUNDER remains the one to beat on form. Others to consider are The Jostler and Ninefineirishmen |
No winning sequence as yet with Stevie Thunder - 11/10 - - - 8/1 - the price gap has increased in the live market - 11/14 tips - top RPR - 4 days since previous run -
NEGATIVE - "so many quick races" but it is a short distance. looks nailed on to place and worry is the big field.
FOOTY
Interesting match today - another MUST WIN for Chelsea against NEwcastle side which has gained in confidence. I'll take Chelsea to win and maybe a DRAW/CHELSEA and NEWCASTLE/CHELSEA bet will give us big odds (break even on Chelsea/Chelsea?)
SNOOKER - I backed Ronny to win at 7/2 pre tournament so this bet is now tradeable by laying off my stake at 1.04 or backing Ali Carter at 25 to "green up"
No comments:
Post a Comment