Saturday 24 May 2008

24/5

Well I was right about Caustic Wit but changed my mind! in future if a shortie in the betting forecast is left alone by a near market rival becoming withdrawn then it may be worth backing.
one way ticket - so close to a nice 12/1 win - managed 2nd place
Maid for Music - 12/1 betting forecast into 2/1 - fancied? - I'd say so but could only manage 2nd place
Kissing the camera won by a neck - more frustrations! Palace Moon a non runner. Oumeyade a shocking price but Ruby did NOT take the wrong course!
Again with the irish, started well with a 1-2 for Grand Ducal and Chariya .Award Ceremonty placed for each way backers. Woodland Beauty placed at 3/1.
CARTMEL - Can noel Fehily top the card here with wins in the first and last? Red Admiral and Stellenbosch. A hint that they're both better backed for theplace. We all know about shorties in maiden hurdles. As a double ,at least we'll get a single bet at 3.11 / 1
CATTERICK
215
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Court Of Appeal, 5/2 Eijaaz, 5/1 Caraman, 6/1 Funky Town, 8/1 Parchment, 14/1 Resaass, 20/1 Airedale Lad, 100/1 Fardi, Jayne Dean, Time Dancer .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Court Of Appeal should go well once more but he is getting on a bit and wasn't at his best last time. Most of these are exposed with the exception of FUNKY TOWN and given that the Tuer team are in good order, and he showed promise in bumpers, it may be worth chancing him here in a race unlikely to live in the memory for long.

4 horse race? I'll chance Caraman and Funky town each way

CURRAGH
240
HEart shaped and Silver Shoon each way for the Irish combos - an 8 runner race and currently at each way prices
310
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Myboycharlie, 6/1 Snaefell, 8/1 Astronomer Royal, Finicius, Galeota, 10/1 An Tadh, 12/1 Abraham Lincoln, 20/1 Great Rumpuscat.
Bit of a puzzle here - Jonny Murtagh ( the Ballydoyle number one) is on Myboycharlie - is that a hint in itslef given there are 3 Aiden O'brien horses in Astronomer Royal, Abraham Lincoln and Great Rumpuscat. All 3 are at biggish each way prices
Pat Smullen is on board Snaefell. Back all 4 each way? You never know

345
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 New Approach, 15/8 Henrythenavigator, 7/1 Jupiter Pluvius, 8/1 Famous Name, 14/1 Stubbs Art, 16/1 Nownownow, 50/1 Sammy The Snake, 66/1 Windsor Palace .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NEW APPROACH is given marginal preference in this replay of the Newmarket equivalent with Henrythenavigator. It is possible that he was prepared for his first Classic assignment with a prolonged campaign in mind, and may have a little more potential for improvement than a rival who looked very well tuned for the day.

Henry is the obvious Aiden O'Brien horse, but he has Jupiter Pluvius and Windsor Palace, and Smullen has Famous name.
Looks to concern New Approach and Henry here for sure.

420 - Settigano for Smullen
450 - Cheyenne star for Smullen
520 - King of Westphalia and Tango Foxtrot each way

Multiple selections in single races make betting uneconomical especially where New Approach and Henry the navigator look to have the first 2 places filled. We won't get a return for a placed horse which covers stake if we take the above 2 named as 1-2 in the guineas.

220 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Unnefer, 3/1 Pampas Cat, 13/2 Gaspar Van Wittel, 7/1 Age Of Reason, 8/1 Drill Sergeant .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This race has produced top-ranking winners in David Junior, Red Rocks and Lucarno in the last three years. UNNEFER (nap) may not be up to that but he sets a good standard in the context of this line-up. It is interesting to see that Mark Johnston is risking a handicap mark of 93 with Age Of Reason, who should not be dismissed despite graduating from the AW and looking the stable second choice on jockey bookings.

Toss of the coin race? I'll chance Unnefer

645 STRATOFRD - Oumeyade won yesterday - layable today if still 11/8 ish

FOOTY
Playoffs = under 2.5 goals? It seems logical given the prize - again with trading in mind.

Rangers layable at 2/7 today? low liability and perhaps Queen of the South could put up reasonable resistance

Irish boys worth backing today in the friendly against Serbia? odds against reasonable enough.

No comments: