I'm trialling a backing biggies type system which ,I'll admit, was originally a laying system trying to bag a big outsider to lay, but it keeps picking the winners. Yesterday winners at 25/1, 10/1 3 2nds at 20/1 - ridiculous - it works by selecting those who should have no chance - my methodology being that if you lay one who hasn't got a chance on the book, the unpredictability of racing will bite you on the arse!. eg Tigers Dream winning by a head at 4/11 to a 66/1 and 100/1 shot.
It only takes a 20/1 shot to place and we're looking at 5/1+ return, and imagine that 25/1 shot on Betfair, near enough double the odds (and then some - sometimes as high as 100!)
Early doors but I will continue as an interesting excercise. Simply select those horses who should have no chance, and let horse racing take over with its surprises!
BRIGHTON
210
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Light Hearted, 7/2 Great Knight, 5/1 The Lady Granuaile, 11/2 Superduper, 14/1 Senorita Parkes, 16/1 Miss Mozart, 20/1 Amicable Terms, 66/1 She Wont Wait .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jeremy Noseda has an impressive strike rate at Brighton and following his runners over the last five years would show a healthy profit. LIGHT HEARTED is his only runner here today and could well give him a third win in this race since 2001, having shown promise in what looks a useful maiden at Newmarket on her debut. Great Knight appeals most of the remainde |
GReat Knight appeals for the place here - progressive in 2 runs and currently 2/1
340
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Prince Valentine, 9/2 Pab Special, 11/2 Astroangel, 8/1 Recalcitrant, 10/1 Dancing Jest, 12/1 Pactolos Way, Silver Blue, 14/1 Fun In The Sun, 20/1 Art Gallery, Chasing Memories, 25/1 Northstar Express, 33/1 Fervent .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It’s hard to get away from course specialist PRINCE VALENTINE returned to this track with the trainer’s talented son back on board, particularly with question marks over many of his rivals. A viable alternative is Pactolos Way, who might show more off a potentially decent mark with the application of a visor and drop back in trip. |
Spotlight bullish about the market principle , drifting though to 7/2 - we can see this in 2 lights - as a backer we get enhanced odds verging on the each way, as a layer it may signal lack of strength in the fav. I'll go for the former here with Ryan Moore on board
650
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Boz, 4/1 Alleviate, 7/1 Cleaver, Nawow, 8/1 Motarjm, 10/1 Proper, 12/1 Bold Adventure, 16/1 Bentley Brook, 20/1 Eumene, 25/1 At The Money, 66/1 Tashkandi .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A really interesting handicap. Boz will not be eligible for any more 0-85s if he maintains his rate of progress, but the races he has been winning have been less competitive than this and this will be a good test of his current standing. Alleviate and Nawow both make some appeal, but it may be worth giving MOTARJM another chance now up again in trip on the AW having run respectably at shorter in better grade than this the last twice, not least now that he is reunited with Chris Catlin. |
A chance to take on Boz, who maintains his excellent relationship with Spencer. Proper is into 6/1 and appeals as an each way alternative
KILLARNEY
655
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Reisk Superman, 2/1 Field Commander, 8/1 Moscow Breeze, 10/1 Cadeansceal, Zitenka, 14/1 Tears Of Jade, 16/1 Presenting Yours, 20/1 Absolute Millenium, Captain Spears, Glengali, Ihaveyouknow, 25/1 Boreen Blaze, Lazuli Moon, Lescers Boy, 33/1 Strategic Boy.
A 2 horse race tonight? Place only on Field Commander for me.
640 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rapscallion, 11/2 One Nation, 6/1 Kofi, 8/1 Are You There, 10/1 Moscow Summit, 12/1 Kosciusko, 16/1 Sir Night, Watch Out, 25/1 Fairly High, 33/1 Duke´s View, Prince Of Aragon .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RAPSCALLION is the obvious choice but there are others in this field capable of causing an upset, notably One Nation and Kosciusko.[JN] |
The horse that spoilt my party only got up under a McCoy drive and I am keen to take him on tonight - if short enough a lay to monitor in running
710
BETTING FORECAST: 2/7 Poquelin, 11/2 Wheelavit, 9/1 Popcorn Rosie, 20/1 Tupac Amaru, 40/1 Do The Locomotion, Etendard Indien, 66/1 Croft .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is impossible to oppose POQUELIN, given that he has far more ability than his rivals and with the obvious alternatives, Wheelavit and Popcorn Rosie, also making their chasing debuts. |
Fresh from taking the piss out of his rivals at Killarney ,Ruby makes the journey to NA for Poquelin, a back to lay off in running
FOOTY
HEarts may be worth laying at 1/2 tonight if in running - Gretna have been good at home and in a meaningless match can put up a fight
FIVEof the last six two-legged Championship play-offs have been won by the away team and Crystal Palace could continue that excellent record when they travel to Bristol City tonight.
An interesting stat and it may be worth backing Palace tonight away from home to trade if they score first
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