The Irish teams failed in the treble, and it strengthens the argument that we should be more choosy in qualifying bets in BETTER leagues than Ireland and Austria and Switzerland! Still, something for next season - clearly at present that's 2 losing set of 3 bets and it is not the guaranteed money earner just yet is it!
Today is bookie benefit day as usual
ASCOT
110
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lion Sands, 100/30 Regal Flush, 11/2 Ivy Creek, 15/2 Spanish Moon, 10/1 Classic Punch, Tungsten Strike, Young Mick, 11/1 Munsef, 14/1 Big Robert, 33/1 Petara Bay, 66/1 Hanella .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With front-runner Tungsten Strike better at further and thereby expected to go off at a reasonable pace, this should be truly run. There isn't much to choose between a clutch of these from a form perspective but with LION SANDS saving his best run until last in 2007 and with the profile of a horse likely to come on again this time round, he makes most appeal. Ivy Creek may be next bes |
I think I've learned that in high class races, the shorties underperform while still being good place only material. We see this time and time again at venues like Cheltenham.
Regal Flush is a non runner and my initial instinct would be to side with the market leader but Spanish Moon each way now comes into place, just before the double figure horses.
320
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Silver Suitor, 11/2 Buster Hyvonen, 6/1 Gala Evening, 15/2 Hue, 9/1 Gabier, 10/1 Gee Dee Nen, 11/1 Calculating, Ned Ludd, 14/1 Plane Painter, 16/1 Tribe .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quite a few of interest, none more so than SILVER SUITOR (nap), who shaped as if he would stay this sort of trip last season. He resumed with a promising effort in a slightly more competitive 1m4f Newmarket handicap last week and has strong claims on that despite a slightly higher mark now. Gala Evening and Buster Hyvonen come here in top form too and rate the pick of the opposition.[ |
Carrying on the theme of not siding with the shorties at these meetings, Buster Hyvonen and Hue each way look ones to have to be competitive for the place at least and give us a chance against Silver Suitor
DOWNPATRICK
315
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Bidalia, 6/4 Easterly Breeze, 8/1 President Dan, 12/1 Grand Article, 14/1 Proud To Be Irish, 25/1 Thespian Star, 33/1 Gothenberg Double.
Smullen on Bidalia - not quite 10/1 though!
125 HAYDOCK
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The Pipes have dominated this race and each of their runners merits respect, with Openditch potentially interesting lurking down the handicap on his first start for the stable since moving from Henrietta Knight. Menchikov and Liberate are also interesting but preference is for the admirably progressive SUPERIOR WISDOM, who looks sure to give another excellent account despite his climb in the weights |
Spotlight indicates the PIPE team may be worth investing in - Buena Vista, Very Cool ,and Openditch each way
200- a 24 runner class 1 handicap hurdle anyone - ? thought not!
HEXHAM card makes absolutely no appeal whatsoever
LINGFIELD
210
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Ice Queen, 11/4 Look Here, 6/1 Jazz Jam, 7/1 Mischief Making, 10/1 Amanjena, 12/1 Classic Remark, Miracle Seeker, 16/1 Presbyterian Nun, 20/1 Ever Rigg .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ralph Beckett won this last year with Kayah and can strike again with her relative LOOK HERE (their dams are half-sisters) who has a similar profile, having won a 2yo 1m maiden on her only start. Ice Queen, who took a major step forward when off the mark last time, is feared most.[AC] |
Like Achill Island yesterday, Ice Queen represents O'Brien but the prices tell you this is competitive amongst the market leaders
310
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Luca Cumani won this with subsequent Derby winners Kahyasi (1988) and High-Rise (1998) and saddles leading Epsom fancy Curtain Call today. The colt is bred to be suited by this trip but he does have to concede 5lb all round and show he is equally adept on faster ground so preference is for Godolphin's new acquisition CAMPANOLOGIST who will find the ground in his favour and claimed a notable scalp at Newmarket last time.[AC] |
Curtain call is the non runner and O'Brien wades in with Alessandro Volta, cut to 6/4 favourite now, but Campanologist is the fly in the ointment at 7/4 if we are blindly backing O'Brien representatives. 6/4 = 40% and 7/4 =36.36% so they are dutchable at 76.36% of the book
810 THIRSK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tiger Dream, 8/1 Louis Seffens, 10/1 Virtuality, 12/1 Top Man Dan, 20/1 Novellen Lad, 25/1 Cheers For Thea, Ezdeyaad, St Johns Wood, Stormin Heart, 33/1 Grey Command, King Fingal, Miss Understanding, Pick Of The Day, Tycoon´s Buddy, 50/1 Royal Avenue, 66/1 Cranworth Blaze, Desert Maze, Flaxton .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It'll be a big surprise if TIGER DREAM is beaten in an uncompetitive event. His form from last year was well in advance of anything that his rivals have achieved and he's well drawn for one that races up with the pace. Louis Seffens is the one for the each-way players back on a sound surface |
Like Rayvin Mad, another with obvious claims BUT in a maiden race with many runners. 4/7 is reasonable enough for me, any lower and it's a no bet
A day of handicaps and maidens makes for headscratching racing!
FOOTY
What a weekend in store!
Let's start with the old treble again just out of interest
| 12:30 | Rangers vs Dundee United | 1/3 | 4/1 | 8/1 |
| 13:00 | Denizlispor vs Rizespor | 8/13 | 9/4 | 4/1 |
| 15:00 |  Holland U17 vs Scotland U17 | 1/2 | 12/5 | 5/1 |
| 15:00 | Hearts vs Kilmarnock | 8/13 | 5/2 | 7/2 |
| 15:00 | St Mirren vs Gretna | 1/3 | 10/3 | 6/1 |
| 19:45 | Bordeaux vs Sochaux | 2/5 | 11/4 | 6/1 |
| 19:45 | Lyon vs Nancy | 2/5 | 5/2 | 7/1 |
| 22:10 | Sao Paulo vs Gremio | 8/13 | 5/2 | 7/2 |
Holland under 17's and Hearts for my 4/7 2 selections ( or near) and Rangers at 1/3 pays out 3.23 albeit as a watching brief only!
Today sees a number of high profile games. Rangers at 12.30 face Dundee United after scraping a 1-0 at home to Motherwell mid week in vey unconvincing fashion.
With the nerves jangling like the jewelry on Jimmy Saville, under 2.5 goals could be tradeable. Enhanced betting could be the way if 0-0 at half time, or if Rangers go 1-0 down, I will look to enhance the 1/3 odds
Momentum is with Crystal Palace today and playoffs mean under 2.5 goals tight nervy affairs? I hope so as was shown by yesterday's 2 play off games - tighter than my brother when it's his round!
Could this pattern surface when Torquay take on Ebbsfleet?
THe GRetna draw sequence of 3 matches came to a shuddering halt last week. This match is important to St Mirren I would suggest so I'll happily have the home win at restrictive odds, enhanced perhaps by the half time full time St/St & Draw/St
Lyon played a weakened side against Sedan mid week which hints that today's home game against Nancy is important. Half time/full time Lyon /Lyon appeals to enhance odds. Like the Rangers match, if in runnning, I will look to enhance odds by backing Lyon if losing or drawing after 70 minutes or if odds near evens. Reknowned late goal scorers, we should b in with a shout if parity remains after a long period.
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