Wednesday 28 May 2008

28/5

Five satins unplaced. Teach Nua was a strange one and at 2/5 unbackable, dropping from 2 miles to 1 mile and LOSING. Stylish Bid won at 7/1. Over 3.5 goals came in but with a 2-2 draw!
805 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Corrybrough, 4/1 Inxile, 6/1 Dubai Princess, Hammadi, 20/1 Mey Blossom, 25/1 Secret Asset, 100/1 Prigsnov Dancer .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: These are quicker conditions than the exciting CORRYBROUGH has encountered before but an uphill track like this is a definite help in that regard and he will be hard to beat. Inxile will be suited by this drop back to the minimum trip and looks the main threat.

Potential price gapper - "hard to beat" - Inxile is the problem horse - worth backing at this stage but given the time of the race, a quick peak at the market is recommended

220 CARTMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Trinity Rose, 5/2 Lady Bernie, 9/1 Adlestrop, 12/1 Edkay, 20/1 Cashback Rose, 25/1 Sheriff´s Falcon, 50/1 Double Runner, Ran A Gamble, She´s So Lucky, 100/1 Gala Queen .

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRINITY ROSE would have won a similar contest last time but for falling at the final hurdle and can gain compensation if that incident hasn't left a mark. Lady Bernie is the only realistic alternative

Lady Bernie to place here? Potential question mark over the market leader

LEOPARDSTOWN
600
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Kitchi, 11/4 Look Officer, 4/1 Rantavan Wood, 5/1 Roshina, 8/1 Moving Statue, 10/1 Call The Law, 12/1 Chibcha, Rosie The Riveter, 14/1 Cape West.

Moving statue has Smullen on board after his 7/1 winner yesterday.
630 - Egypt and Luminous eyes - not backable each way ( this is preferable) - MAY BE BACKABLE AS A DUTCH?

700 - Kalinka Malinka a head 4th so no payout for each way backers last time - what chance this time?
730 - Mutakarrim
800 -Ghimaar and Divinitus has Jonny Murtagh on board at a big price - he chipped in with a 10/1 winner a couple of days ago for a trainer other than Ballydoyle
900 - Giant Among Men - again may not be backable each way

I am aware that these Irish Combos will have blank days - yesterday for instance was profitable with the 7/1 SP winner (bigger on BEtfair)

FOOTY
As we saw yesterday, friendlies can be a minefield. Wholesale changes in yesterday's 2nd half Germany game meant that they won the first half with their strongest side but lost the 2nd half. Over 3.5 goals came in in an unconventional way but was welcome.
Any eagle eyed trader would have seen France at evens ( originally 1/3) after a 0-0. They duly won in the 2nd half for another successful enhanced odds bet.
Watch out for these!
Eng-er-land face the USA this evening in another meaningless friendly and I won't be entertaining at 4/9. THe USA should not be underestimated. England are unbackable, but I don't know if they are layable at 4/9. The problem is that if the USA don't score ( and England don't score) the price will not move sufficiently quickly over time to allow for a decent profit.
Perhaps an under 2.5 goal trade given England's inability to instil confidence in their supporters and the possible Capello-esque negative football?
Draw/England may appeal and is backalbe along with England/England -break even preferable on the latter .
1.4 for under 5 points appeals in the booking market given this is a friendly but the odds are not punter friendly
0-0 and 1-0 are dutchable for half time score

Not a game to get carried away with though

No comments: