back-lay-trade-horses-football: 9/9

*****ONE A DAY - 815pm - Porto v Setubal -back Porto in the match odds at 1.17 - should continue their winning run especially at home.*****
all of the football looks strong today and a multiple might pay off?

4 Selections Chosen
1	Shakhtar v Volyn (Backing Shakhtar @ 1.12)
2	SCR Altach v Hartberg (Backing SCR Altach @ 1.26)
3	Galway Utd v Dundalk (Backing Dundalk @ 1.15)
4	Porto v Setubal (Backing Porto @ 1.14)

4-Folds
	Selections	Odds*	Stake	Potential win
	1,2,3 and 4	1.88	£100.00	£88.00

Altach the risk I suspect. As all these matches are in play you can hedge if you so desire.

The goals didn't materialise but Tampines got the win.

1pm - TSW Pegasus v Fourway Rangers - 1.47 home - beginning of the Hong Kong league for the season and worth a look if the markets are liquid as goals seem to be the call here.

19.02.2011	D1	TSW Pegasus	2-3	Fourway Rangers
09.01.2011	LC	TSW Pegasus	3-2	Fourway Rangers
17.10.2010	D1	Fourway Rangers	1-2	TSW Pegasus
22.05.2010	D1	TSW Pegasus	3-0	Fourway Rangers
18.10.2009	D1	Fourway Rangers	1-4	TSW Pegasus

7-8-5-1- total goals for Pegasus in their last 4 league matches ( they have played many other matches inbetween)
6-2-9-5-1-7-4-5-0 - total goals for Fourway., Both sides suddenly feature under 1.5 goals in last match!!
First day of season a watching brief but I think we can exploit the Hong Kong goals markets as the season progresses. Look at head to heads total goals - 5-3-3-5-5!!

3pm - Lokomotiv Sofia v Svetkavitsa - 1.19 home - only 4 matches played in the Bulgarian league. Without looking at the form, sub 1.2 equals goals , and usually a 3/4 goal win for the team quoted at that price.
LLWD for Sofia this season - losses weew 2-1's - all over 2.5 goals and they have scored in all and conceded in all bar one matches this season.
LLLL for Svet this season and they have lost all matches without scoring a goal. Now we are on a cusp here. Will that goalless trend continue? or is it obvious that the longer Svet go without scoring, the nearer they are to ending that sequence with a goal.
They have conceded 3 and 6 in 2 matches which means that they could be vulnerable against the right opponents - 1.19 opponents for instance?
Speculators therefore head towards over 3.5 goals and over 4.5 goals as hopeful trading points.

5pm - Shakhtar v Volyn - 1.16 home

20.03.2011	D1	Shakhtar Donetsk	4-0	Volyn Lutsk
21.08.2010	D1	Volyn Lutsk	0-1	Shakhtar Donetsk
20.11.2005	D1	Shakhtar Donetsk	2-0	Volyn Lutsk

Only 2 recent head to heads see Shaktar winning without conceding.
8 matches into the season see Shaktar 2nd anad Volyn 7th
WWWDWWWD for Shaktar this season. Last draw was a 2-2 which saw Shaktar 2-1 up until the 90th minute.
Shaktar have scored 2-2-3-2 in their last 4 matches
WWWW at home scoring 4-2-2-3 - 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
Volyn -LDWLWWDD - 2 losses this season v 3rd and 5th - cannot cope with top 5?
Volyn have conceded in 7 of last 8 matches.
LWWD away from home - 1-2 were the wins against 9th and 10th ( I acknowledge that, after 8 games, these league positions are not an accurate reflection of a team's likely season long league position)
The draw was a 0-0 v 14th in the league and the loss was v 4th.
Again, as you know by now, sub 1.2 should equal 3/4 goal win and likely to nil.

530pm - SCR Altach v Hartberg - 1.31 home - 3rd v 9th of 10 and a warning re leagues of only 10 teams - over familiarity can result in skewed results.
10 matches played this season in this Austrian Division 2
Altach - DWDWLWWLLW - general inconsistency shown by inability to strong together a run of similar results. No draw in 7 matches now for Altach
DDLWL at home this season is poor form. 1-1 draws against 2nd and 5th
Losses, both 1-2 against 4th and 10th ( I told you these small leagues can produce erroneous results)
Sole win 4-1 against 6th. altach have scored in all home matches this season. Altach have scored first in their last 4 matches.
LLLLLLWLWD for Hartberg this season. Wins v 1st and 10th but were 3-0 down against 1st before winning 4-3!!
LLLL away from home - have failed to score in their last 3 matches.
Last 1-0 was an 88th minute winner. Have fallen foul of late 60+ minute goals in all away matches ( traders take note of this potential vulnerability)
What a strange day!! Another possible win to nil for the home side against an away side who have not scored in last 3 away matches?

7pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Veendam - 1.6 home - 4 matches into the new season probably ( like the Bulgarian league) not enough for us to draw any accurate conclusions. I include Dutch 2nd flight here as it usually generates goals.
12th v 17th of 18 here.

31.01.2011	D2	Go Ahead Eagles	0-0	BV Veendam
20.08.2010	D2	BV Veendam	1-4	Go Ahead Eagles
23.04.2010	D2	BV Veendam	1-1	Go Ahead Eagles
27.09.2009	D2	Go Ahead Eagles	3-0	BV Veendam

Just as I mention the possibility for goals, they serve up a 0-0! D'oh!
WDLD for Go ahead this season. last 2 matches over 2.5 goals.
at home 1-0 win, 2-3 loss.
LLLL for veendam this season - conceding 3-3-2-2 - all matches over 2.5 goals. Is this the right opposition for Go ahead which will help creep the goals tally over 3?
Not much to go on as you can appreciate but a squeak of an argument for over 2.5 goals.
7pm - Sparta Rotterdam v FC Oss - 1.65 home - 15th v 7th and 15th are favourites! Yes only 4 matches so, as I said earlier, these league positions are inaccurate representations.
WLDLfor Sparta so far. WD at home 1-0 and 0-0 at home .
Sparta have failed to score in their last 2 matches.
WLLW for Oss, and all matches over 2.5 goals. LW away from home - 2-1 loss and 3-1 win.
no congruency here re goals markets. Sparta at home have seen only 1 goal in 2 matches. Oss away have seen 3 and 4 goals in 2 matches.
745pm - AC Milan v Lazio - 1.66 home v- Seria A begins today with a cracker. All I can use initially is head to heads and last year's league stats.

01.02.2011	D1	AC Milan	0-0	Lazio Roma
22.09.2010	D1	Lazio Roma	1-1	AC Milan
28.03.2010	D1	AC Milan	1-1	Lazio Roma
08.11.2009	D1	Lazio Roma	1-2	AC Milan

Breaking news - Italian sides in drab defensive football shocker! 3 draws on the trot and the sequencer would say that it becomes less probable that a draw would continue?
League winners v 5th from last year.
Only 2 losses at home against 6th and 7th last year, but against top 7 we have WWDDLL .
AC Milan left last season with no defeat at home in 10, and a 4 match winning streak.
No defeat in 8 overall for last season.
58% over 2.5 goals at home last season,and a season long 0.58 goal concession average at home is extremely good and typically Italian !
2 draws against Lazio last season home and away.
Pretty conclusive for lazio away last season against the top 7 - DLLLLL , conceding 2-4-2-2-2 - was that 0-0, therefore, anomolous or just a sign that AC Milan are suited to Lazio?
42% overs for Lazio last season. 1.26 scored and conceded on average away from home.
Ended last season 8 away without a draw - in fact 14 overall without a draw.
Is this sufficient evidence to suggest that we can lay the draw?
yes, we have nothing to go on, and we have not accounted for transfers during off season, which can change a dynamic of a team ( Dzeko, Given et al!)
El Shaarawy and Boetang the big signings for AC Milan.
Klose and Cisse eyecatching signings for Lazio.
Muslera and Lichtsteiner big sales out of Lazio.
I am afraid I do not know their respective positions.

745pm - Galway Utd v Dundalk - 1.18 away - you know the drill by now - it's Friday, so it must be oppose Galway day. Another loss last week for Galway. Dundalk are 6th of 10 and have drawn 5 of their last 7, but have beaten Galway 6-1 at home and 3-0 away from home this season. yes, I could take this match through the betting research template but my conclusions are likely to be obvious - goals bets, back dundalk.
815pm - Porto v Setubal - 1.17 home
6/6 in head to heads for Porto

01.05.2011	D1	Vitória Setúbal	0-4	FC Porto
06.12.2010	D1	FC Porto	1-0	Vitória Setúbal
24.04.2010	D1	Vitória Setúbal	2-5	FC Porto
13.12.2009	D1	FC Porto	2-0	Vitória Setúbal

0-1, 3-1, 2-5 wins for Port this season. There's goals in them there hills!
WDL for Setabul this season. Sole draw away from home. porto won last 2 matches without conceding and could do so again in a day which looks like a win to nil day for nearly all of the matches.
porto have scored 8 in their last 2 - a sign they are in the swing? Over 3.5 goals perhaps and a 3-0, 4-0 correct score?

225 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Opinion Poll, 4/1 Motrice, 5/1 Saddler´s Rock, 6/1 Tactician, 10/1 Bergo, 10/1 Blue Bajan, 14/1 Tastahil, 40/1 Dayia.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OPINION POLL (nap) is having an excellent Cup-race campaign and can add to his recent Goodwood and Lonsdale Cup wins, though confidence would be enhanced if there has been any rain around. However, he still managed to win the Goodwood Cup on a quickish surface before bettering that form with more dig in the ground at York and looks altogether the best option. Last year's third Motrice is next best, ahead of Blue Bajan and potential improver Saddler's Rock. [Mel Cullinan]

7 runners and still a price gapper, and 3 places makes Opinion poll interesting as he only now has 4 to beat to place.

7/4 - - -9/2 price gapper with 7 runners makes this interesting as does up and coming young jockey Frankie Dettori.

335 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Ektihaam, 4/1 Mizwaaj, 6/1 Hot Sugar, 14/1 Waseem Faris, 20/1 Abshir Zain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There was a lot to like about the debut Newbury success of EKTIHAAM and he can follow up here on his way to better things. Mizwaaj can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]

3 under 14/1 makes the market leader obvious place only fodder.

320 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 El Greco, 9/2 Mawaqeet, 11/2 Emmuska, 11/2 Shantaram, 12/1 Autarch, 12/1 Eshaab, 16/1 Tushuk Tash, 25/1 Bohemian Rhapsody, 25/1 Drummond, 25/1 Mitch Rapp, 25/1 Season Spirit, 33/1 Cades Reef, 33/1 Search And Rescue, 66/1 Cape Rainbow, 100/1 King Fong.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The well-bred EL GRECO made a highly promising debut at this track and looks the one to beat. Mawaqeet (stablemate of the selection), Autarch and Shantaram are interesting newcomers who need to be monitored closely in the betting.[Steve Boow]

4/6 - -- 13/2 and a one time out 2 year old in a big field. But do we take the market confidence above these negatives?

540 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Pint Size, 4/1 Aquasulis, 9/2 Class Monitor, 9/1 Liebesziel, 14/1 Wrapped Up, 20/1 Aglaja, 25/1 Dubai Rythm, 40/1 J Cunningham.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for PINT SIZE (nap) to add to the three wins he has gained already in plating company, with last month's sound nursery third off 84 at Kempton showed he acts on Polytrack too. Aquasulis may be next best, ahead of Class Monitor. [Mel Cullinan]

Price gapper in an 8 runner, 3 place race so of obvious interest.

3 under 12/1 - class 6 2 year old claimer - yuk!

610 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 All My Heart, 11/4 Around The Clock, 7/1 Maher, 8/1 Woop Woop.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALL MY HEART showed plenty of grit when landing the odds at Kempton six days ago and may be able to shrug off a double penalty and complete a hat-trick. The one that is feared most is Around The Clock who showed improvement to strike back from a gelding operation two weeks ago.[David Moon]

Previous one a dayer did the job last time. Smaller field and 50/50 chance of placing.

SHORTLIST