back-lay-trade-horses-football: 3/9

leopardstown for the solid ones today, and I think Scotland and the Czechs will not conjure up 4 goals between them. The best bet of the day is All my heart in a 6 runner race for 3 places, and as an original market leader and price gapper in a smaller field, the horse must have an outstanding chance of placing.

*****ONE A DAY - 350 KEMPTON - All my Heart to place only***** - 1.13 available is reasonable given the 50/50 nature of the race and the fact this horse was a price gapper when there were 8 runners.

Germany won, but I made a lot more successful bets yesterday. Remember Holland. Unbackable? A goals bet would have paid off handsomely with a 10-0 win. I don't think there was a shock in the football yesterday.
Incidentally Andy Murray was available to back at as high as 2.4 yesterday 2 sets down, and winning the 3rd set those odds plummeted to 1.4 for a superb trade.

12pm - Skarp v Tonsberg- 1.18 away

22.05.2011	D3-4	FK Tonsberg	5-3	IF Skarp
03.08.2008	D3-4	FK Tonsberg	7-0	IF Skarp

Expectation for goals already in this Norwegian D3W match although this is stretching the limits of my trading knowledge, the Norwegian 3rd tier!!
Tonsberg have won their last 6, all over 2.5 goals.
Skarp have won only 1 of their last 12 matches, and lost their last 5 conceding 1-5-11-2-8. Goals anyone? Liquidity anyone? Likely to be very illiquid.
10 losses, 1 win and 1 draw at home for Skarp.
LLLWWLWW for Tonsberg away recently - no draws. 4-3-0-3-2 scored by Tonsberg away in last 5 matches.

3pm - Crawley Town v Bristol Rovers - 1.78 home - 5 matches into League 2 perhaps not enough to get a strong angle. I normally leave lower leagues alone as it is not my area of expertise but in a very quiet day, perhaps worth a look.
HEAD TO HEADS
no head to heads indicates one of these is newly promoted/relegated

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 10th but 10 points v 8 points so do not be swayed by the league positions at this early stage. It does hint at a tight competitive league? ( remember I am new to League 2 )

HOME TEAM - CRAWLEY

RECENT HOME FORM - WW - 2-0 and 3-0 - clean sheets

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWL - Crawley have scored in all matches this season, 2 or more in 4 matches out of 5 shows an element of consistency even though we are dealing with only 5 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - 4/5 matches over 2.5 goals. The exception was a 2-0 home win .Clean sheets kept in 2 home matches.

STREAKS - 2 home wins without conceding.

AWAY TEAM - BRISTOL ROVERS

RECENT AWAY FORM - 2-3 win and 0-0 draw -Rovers were 2-0 up and needed a fortuitous 85th minute penalty to get the win.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWDD - last 2 draws have been 0-0's - a sign of problems or just coincidental as regards their opponents?

GOAL TRENDS - 2 0-0's on the trot.

STREAKS -2 away without defeat

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 5 matches not enough to get an angle in. What would I glean here? Crawley have scored in all matches this season. 2 home matches have seen clean sheets and a win. How significant are the 2 0-0's for Rovers? They could hint at a back of Crawley and the 0-0 insurance bet?

3pm - Scotland v Czech Republic - 2.72 home - Scottish league football is dire with Celtic and Rangers out of Europe already. A tough afternoon in store for the Scots - they are backable at 2.72 and Czechs at 2.96.
Last 2 head to heads 1-0 to Scotland in a friendly and 1-0 to Czechs ( 70th minute goal) in a Euro Qualifier.
And there was me thinking the odds were tight!!
Expectation for a 0-0 halftime or a 0-0 fulltime with a 1-0, 0-1 cover?
Spain top , Czechs 2nd and a chance for the Scots to get that 2nd place. Another Ireland type match from yesterday - yes that word tight again ( I never thought I would say "tight" and "Scots" in the same sentence.)
I would look to the traditional "tight match bets" such as backing 0-0 early doors, under 2.5 goals , even a lay of the favourites all with trading in mind.
3pm - Sheff Utd v Bury - 1.73 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Sheff Utd have won all 3 but they go back to 2009 and earlier.

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 13th - 13 points v 7 and only 5 matches played.

HOME TEAM - Sheff utd

RECENT HOME FORM - WW - in both home games, all goals came in the 2nd half. 2-0 win and a 3-2 win ( coming back from 2-0 down!) . Enhanced traders get involved if 0-0 at halftime!

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDW - solid form and the Blades have scored in all matches this season and have scored 1st in 4 of their 5 matches this season. last 2 matches saw them draw 1-1 and win 1-0, previously they were scoring 2 or more.

GOAL TRENDS - have scored 2 or more at home, and all in the 2nd half.Only 1 match has been over 2.5 goals so far, but a lot of close shaves ( 1-1, 2-0 etc) . With 2nd half goal bias, under 2.5 goals might be an early tradable angle along with 0-0)

STREAKS - unbeaten in 5, 2 home wins.

AWAY TEAM - BURY

RECENT AWAY FORM- DW

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLWWL - both losses at home against current 2nd and 6th .

GOAL TRENDS - only 2 of the 5 matches over 2.5 goals but yet again 3 others featured 2 goals. Over 1.5 goals today then could be a goer? Bury have scored in both away matches this season, 2 of their 3 goals scored in 2nd half.

STREAKS - unbeaten away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 5 matches in and lower leagues not my recipe for trading success! Early ( weak) trends? propensity for Blades home matches to feature goals in 2nd half ( although a sample of 2 matches means trends are weak). Chance for reactive traders , I would suggest, to get involved if this match is 0-0 at halftime. As this trend is weak, it might not be wise to exploit it, but if you were taken by it, then 0-0 back at halftime for the usual 20 minutes or so, back under 2.5 goals ( and perhaps change to over 2.5 goals at halftime if 0-0) .

730pm - St Patricks v Galway Utd - 1.11 home - dare we stop at the "oppose Galway" well again this evening? On soccerstats so worth investigating whether St Pats are vulnerable or will do the business.
HEAD TO HEADS

21.06.2011	PR	Galway United	0-2	St Patrick's Dublin
02.05.2011	PR	St Patrick's Dublin	5-2	Galway United
04.03.2011	PR	Galway United	0-3	St Patrick's Dublin
03.09.2010	PR	Galway United	1-1	St Patrick's Dublin
02.07.2010	PR	St Patrick's Dublin	4-2	Galway United
26.04.2010	PR	Galway United	0-2	St Patrick's Dublin

St Pat's have scored 4-5 in their last 2 home encounters and nearly a clean sweep in head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 10th of 10 - small leagues of 10 can be difficult betting mediums down to over familiarity and lack of competition but a clear consensus that galway are pants. 48 points plays 5 points.

HOME TEAM - ST PATS

RECENT HOME FORM - LWDDWWDWDWDDWD - solid and unbeatable at home but 3 score draws in last 4 home matches. Have scored 4 and 5 against bottom 2 at home, and playing bottom today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWWWWLDDDLWD - a bit wobbly of late -only 1 win in7 . - the sole win was a home 4-0 win against 2nd from bottom - perhaps proof that indeed the 1.11 is justified despite recent indifferent form.

GOAL TRENDS - 57.1% over 2.5 goals at home. Have scored in all bar 1 match this season.Average 1.92 scored, 1.07 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 13 at home without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - GALWAY

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLLLLLLLLL - pretty conclusive.Galway have failed to score in 7 of last 8 away matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - current losing streak of 21

GOAL TRENDS - 61.5% over 2.5 goals away from home. 14 of last 18 matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 5 of last 6 matches. Average concession away of 3.08 goals and scoring 0.54 goals.7 scored and 40 conceded away.

STREAKS - 21 match losing streak.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -Galway opposable until they win.1.1 signals goals and St Pats , it must be said, have had a dodgy streak of late - 3 draws in last 4 home matches and only 1 win in last 7 ( but significantly perhaps it was a 4-0 home win against 9th ( and Galway are 10th) That scoreline is in line with the 1.1 quote today.

8pm - Shelbourne v Wexford Youths - 1.16 home - Irish 2nd tier not for me I'm afraid, having lived in Ireland some time, I am well aware of the poor inconsistencies in the football there.

USOPEN
4pm - Wozniacki v King - 1.06 home - 1st v 158th and 2-0 at the Aussie Open with only 1 game dropped augurs well for this afternoon's 2-0 set betting to enhance the odds? 6 games dropped so far for Woz in 2 rounds. Last round6-2, 6-0.
2 hard tournaments for King, out in 2nd round or earlier.

6pm - Federer v Cilic - 1.2 - looking lean and mean, Fed was great to watch in the earlier rounds and 1.2 could be tempting here. 3rd v 28th. 2-0 in head to heads in clay and carpet, both 2-0 sets. Best of 5 today. Both players haven't dropped a set yet. Should be a good work out for Fed and I think the 1.2 might rise at some stage for traders ( Murray yesterday backable at 2.42 and still won from 2 sets down)

115am - Djokovic v Davydenko - 1.04 - 3-0 sets for World Number 1? Novak has won the last 2 hard court head to heads, dropping a set in the first and 7-5 in the 2nd match. So could be an early Davy fight on in the first set?

440 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Caledonian Spring, 7/2 Crius, 11/2 Martin Chuzzlewit, 6/1 Noor Zabeel, 15/2 Leqqaa, 8/1 Goldoni, 9/1 Stipulate, 20/1 Shamrocked.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only Crius and Goldoni lack Group-race engagements. Both are improving but they have something to find with CALEDONIAN SPRING who is eased in grade after a fine effort at York where he shaped as though this extra furliong will show him in an even better light. Crius and Martin Chuzzlewit could prove the pick of his rivals. [Frank Carter]

Wow! Stipulate has been backed into 9/4 favouratism for this 2 year old event. Quite a move this early on. 1.7 to place shows some unease , as is naturally the case with 2 year olds.

215 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Harris Tweed, 11/4 Modun, 5/1 Simon De Montfort, 9/1 Myplacelater, 16/1 Classic Punch, 20/1 Bronze Cannon, 20/1 Brushing.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Harris Tweed deserves to win a Pattern race after some solid efforts in defeat this year but he might face some competition for the lead here and that could be his undoing. City Leader and Simon De Montfort aren't the easiest pair to assess but both are capable if at their best. MODUN hasn't quite gone on as his reappearance suggested he might but it is still relatively early days with him and this could be his big chance to return to winning ways.[Paul Smith]

A group 3, 7 runners - 3 places and 4 under 12/1 makes this a great race. Default to the favourite?

320 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tidentime, 4/1 Juvenal, 4/1 Samuel Pickwick.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Gloriam and Samuel Pickwick should have learned from their initial outings and can improve, but TIDENTIME is capable of better himself and this first try at 7f should be right up his street. He can concede 4lb to his rivals and maintain his unbeaten record.[Paul Smith]

3 horses and 2 places -but 3 2 year olds. Still the probability for placing is obvious.

350 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 All My Heart, 5/1 Susan Stroman, 12/1 Mahab El Shamaal, 16/1 Galivant, 16/1 Mungo Park, 16/1 Quiz Mistress, 33/1 Rasam Aldaar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Susan Stroman has the combination of Polytrack and a staying trip that has seen her win twice in recent months and she should make another bold bid. Whether she can cope with ALL MY HEART remains to be seen though, with Sir Mark Prescott's impeccably bred filly having routed her rivals at Southwell in the week. This will be a stiffer examination of her credentials on a different surface, but it will be surprising if she isn't a fair bit better than this in time.[Paul Smith]

Now 6 runners and 3 places and All my Heart still favourite must have an oustanding chance of placing.

540 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Misty For Me, 9/2 Emulous, 5/1 Together, 8/1 Barefoot Lady, 9/1 Lolly For Dolly, 10/1 Emiyna, 20/1 Wild Wind, 50/1 Ballybacka Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Another Group 1 victory on the cards here for MISTY FOR ME. She may be given most by Emulous who has gone already gone a long way towards justifying the regard in which she has been regarded as a long-term prospect by her trainer. Best of the remainder may be Together and Barefoot Lady who were both in front of a below-par Misty For Me in the 1,000 Guineas. [Alan Sweetman]

8 runners - 3 places must make Misty for me of some interest. - 4 under 12/1

645 LEOPARDSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 30/100 So You Think, 11/2 Snow Fairy, 12/1 Famous Name, 14/1 Roderic O´connor, 16/1 Recital, 66/1 Dunboyne Express.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is hardly going to provide the spectacle that is typically associated with the event, with SO YOU THINK facing what should be little more than a formality unless Snow Fairy can somehow rediscover her very best form. [Alan Sweetman]

So you think is rock solid and the win only bet looks the obvious way to go here.

Snow fairy looks obvious for each way backers.

730 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 White Spirit, 5/2 Gin Twist, 8/1 Regal Lady, 8/1 Relentless Harry, 8/1 Wake Up Sioux, 20/1 Arabian Flight.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WHITE SPIRIT again shaped as though the drop to this trip would suit last time and she's preferred to Gin Twist, whose latest third has been boosted by the winner since. Newcomers Relentless Harry and Regal Lady wouldn't need to be worldbeaters.[Graham Wheldon]

6 horses and 3 places - Gin Twist interesting as he has plenty of experience and a recent good run.

SHORTLIST