back-lay-trade-horses-football: 13/9

*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Barcelona v AC Milan - back Barca in the match odds at 1.31*****

I am taking a risk with Champions League but hope that the absence of Robinho and Ibra blunt Milan's attack , which could help Barce make the breakthrough. Remember if they are 2-0 up, you can trade!

Atvitabergs scored 2, not quite the haul I was expecting.

3pm - Klaipeda v Suduva - 1.1 away - lithuanian top flight.

19.06.2011	D1	FK Suduva	2-1	FK Klaipeda
09.04.2011	D1	FK Klaipeda	0-2	FK Suduva
22.08.2010	D1	FK Suduva	7-0	FK Klaipeda
18.08.2010	D1	FK Suduva	4-0	FK Klaipeda
19.05.2010	D1	FK Klaipeda	1-6	FK Suduva

Bottom v 3rd and feel like the Galway of Lithuania.
Goals suddenly drying up in 2011 relative to earlier Suduva performances.
Klaipeda have lost their last 12 league matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of those matches. At home they are LLLLWLLLLLLL - sole win 1-0 against 8th, and although they have been losing at home, Klaipeda posted 5 of their last 7 matches where they only lost by 1 goal, and 3 consecutive 0-1 losses.
DLLWLWDLW for Suduva is very inconsistent.
Away from home WWWLWWDLWLL - 3 losses in last 4 against 1st, 7th and 10th.
This all hinges on how bad Klaipeda are, because Suduva themselves have not been the most consistent with 3 away losses in their last 4. Are they really deserving of a 1.1 quote? It points to a return to 7-0 and 4-0 wins rather than the rather drab 2-1 recently.

4pm - Ajax Lasnamae v Levadia Tallinn - 1.02 away - we have had plenty of examples where these kind of odds present themselves as emphatic goal laden wins.

10.09.2011	D1	Levadia Tallinn	6-0	Ajax Lasnamae
02.07.2011	D1	Ajax Lasnamae	1-4	Levadia Tallinn
05.03.2011	D1	Levadia Tallinn	3-0	Ajax Lasnamae
18.01.2011	CF	Levadia Tallinn	1-4	Ajax Lasnamae

The head to heads certainly back this up. I would expect 6+ again today based on odds of 1.02
These 2 just met on the 10th September for that 6-0 win for Levadia. I am slightly wary of matches played again so close together as managers can react immediately. In the past this has been shown in stonewall defense in the 2nd close replay!
DLLLLLLLLDLL for Ajax recently - both draws came against the same team - 9th in the league. Look at the goals conceded by Ajax recently
7-4-3-3-4-13-6-14-0-7-6 - only complacency will deny Levadia another haul
Ajax have failed to score in 9 of their last 12 at home.
WDWLDWDWW - a few draws against 2nd, 4th and 8th.
Great away form for levadia - WWWDDWWWDWW - they have kept a clean sheet in their last 5 matches.
4pm - SK Liepajas v Gulbene - 1.16 home - a league of only 9 teams perhaps not ideal betting material.
6pm - FC Fyn v Silkeborg - 1.4 away - Danish Cup and D3W v D1 -nice gulf in the leagues.WLDLDLLL for Silkeborg in the league - they are in a better league but in poor form. Silkeborg have scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
745pm - Barcelona v AC Milan - 1.31 home - the resting of Barca players at the weekend in preparation of this match cost them a win. Key news, ibrahimovic is injured for AC Milan which is a huge blow as teams returning to old haunting grounds can always be dangerous. Robinho is also out. Barca's big boys are fresh tonight and should help them get off to a winning start. Their share of possession should ensure victory against a team lacking any attack for this match.
745pm - Chelsea v Leverkusen - 1.5 home - typical long drawn out eventual Chelsea win? 2 1-0's and a 0-0 v Dortmund hint that leverkusen have worked defensively? Again under 2.5 goals or more speculative 0-0 back and stay in as long as you can?
745pm - Dortmund v Arsenal - 2.08 home - tough to call this match with Dortmund inconsistent in the league so far, and well, we know all about Arsenal's apparent frailties.
745pm - Olympiakos v Marseille - 2.76 away - this has the feel of a tight encounter, typically Greek ! They have not started their season yet .back 0-0 to trade perhaps early on?
745pm - Plzen v BATE Borisov - 2.22 home - Plzen very good against FC Copenhagen athis is a must win in a group featuring Barca and Milan. Bate a relative unknown .
745pm - Porto v Shakhtar - 1.65 home - Porto very impressive league form last season carried on to this season. Tough match again to call as these 2 have no history yet are dominant in their prospective leagues. A first step into the Champions League today for Porto.
Shaktar have experience, beating roma twice, beating Braga 2-0 and even beating Arsenal in the Champions League. So that 1.65 for Porto might be a bit dismissive.

250 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Marcus Augustus, 4/1 Asifa, 6/1 Holiday Reading, 9/1 Le Cagnard, 14/1 Jasie Jac, 25/1 Astroscarlet, 25/1 Roman Senate, 33/1 Auntie Kathryn, 33/1 Emperors Waltz, 33/1 Silver Six.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VIOLA DA GAMBA (nap) has leading claims on her second in a big-field C&D maiden last time and that form received a boost when the winner was just caught in a fillies' conditions event at Kempton next time. The main danger on form is Richard Hannon's Marcus Augustus, though it would be no surprise if Asifa stepped up significantly on his debut effort. [David Moon]

5 under 25/1 here and Holiday reading is the real market mover here into 5/2 near joint fav. Marcus Augustus is joint fav here

4pm HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Firebeam, 3/1 Toolain, 5/1 Field Of Dream, 8/1 Al Aasifh, 8/1 Fugnina, 14/1 Cape To Rio, 14/1 Rodrigo De Torres, 200/1 Nially Noo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The return to 7f will suit the progressive FIREBEAM (nap) and he is preferred to Toolain who could benefit from having been gelded since last seen.[Adrian Cook]

4 under12/1 here and Firebeam a strong market leader.

225 LISTOWEL

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Fort Sam Houston, 9/2 Captain Cullen, 7/1 Busalla, 8/1 Pyrenean Music, 8/1 Rayon Rouge, 10/1 Angel Bright, 12/1 Lord Jim, 14/1 Aquilonius, 14/1 Quote Of The Day, 25/1 Golden Halo, 25/1 Monatogher, 33/1 Hes Our Music, 66/1 Quantum Reach, 66/1 Rule By Decree.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FORT SAM HOUSTON probably need not improve much on his narrow Killarney reverse to break his maiden status here, with soft ground no apparent obstacle. Captain Cullen looks next best in a maiden in which the newcomers are of limited appeal. [Johnny Ward]

4 under 16/1 here and Fort Sam houston is the Ballydoyle representative whose form is consistent.

SHORTLIST

3pm - Klaipeda v Suduva - 1.1 away - it's just not Klaipeda's season but then Suduva are no world beaters. 1.1 should signal a return to 4 and 7 goals of previous head to heads, and not the 2-0 and 2-1 victories for Suduva of last 2 head to heads.

4pm - Ajax Lasnamae v Levadia Tallinn - 1.02 away - these 2 met 3 days ago and a 6-0 win. Over familiarity in such a small league with such a quick head to head return? Ajax should conceded 5/6 or more if that 1.02 quote is correct. The market, alas, will be illiquid.

745pm - Barcelona v AC Milan - 1.31 home - no Ibra or Robinho for AC Milan somewhat blunts their attack. Histoic head to heads have been tight, albeit 2 are from 2006. Inzaghi a threat still for AC Milan but Barca at home should boss possession and get the breakthrough.

250 FOLKSTONE - 5 under 25/1 here - soft ground a concern for maidens and I would choose between Marcus augustus or Holiday Reading.

225 LISTOWEL - Fort sam houston should place if continuing the form of

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