back-lay-trade-horses-football: 21/9

*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Falkirk v Rangers - back Rangers in the match odds at 1.27**** I am taken by head to heads and the fact Rangers have kept 4 clean sheets in the league away and have beaten Falkirk by 3 goals minimum in last 3 meetings.
Plenty of opportunities on offer today, hope I have picked the right one. Tameen looks a big price at 1.5 to place .
For those who want the completed football analysis it will be at www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com. I have simply ran out of time here.

BEtween surfer and Emkanaat and I chose the handicap debutant who fluffs his lines. In the football I got them right too so a bad final choice.

Midday - Japan v Malaysia - 1.13 home

10.11.2010	AG	Malaysia U23	0-2	Japan U23
06.06.2007	OLQ	Japan U23	3-1	Malaysia U23
14.03.2007	OLQ	Malaysia U23	1-2	Japan U23

Under 23's I think rather than the first team tempers enthusiasm slightly, but really Malaysia should not be as good as Japan, who have established leagues and a better footballing infrastructure. - 1.13 as ever indicates goals ( more than the head to headas might suggest?)
9 wins and 2 losses ( against the same Kuwait team) in their last 11 suggest naturally there is not going to be a draw. Olympic qualifier.
Midday - South Korea v Oman - 1.2 home - another Olympic qualifier. No head to heads .7 wins and 3 draws in their last 10 for South Korea
6 wins in last 6 matches at home, includes a 3-1 Olympic qualifier win against Jordan.
Oman - WWWLLWWDW but dubious opponents. Oman have won their last 5 away , including a 0-1 away win v China, and that could be an argument for laying South Korea at 1.2, as South Korea beat China 1-0 at home. Tenuous I know, but this is under 23's.

130pm - Shakhtar Sverdlovsk v Shakhtar - 1.08 away - goals expected but illiquid market expected as well - Ukrainian cup and Shaktar likely to win!!! Should see plenty of goals with a quote like that but again expect an illiquid betting market. D3b V Division 1.
335pm - Kunice v FK Jablonec - 1.25 away - D3B v Division 1 in the Czech Cup and that 1.25 looks appealing for a Jablonec team having a good season. 5-4-8-5-4-2 scored in last 6 matches for Jablonec.
430pm - HJK Helsinki v VPS - 1.2 home - a general impression that HJK have the league wrapped up and are going through the motions, at least that's what Betfair Forumites think ( and to be fair, a lot of them make Joey Barton look like a Mensa member)
430pm - Honka v RoPS - 1.2 home
HEAD TO HEADS

17.07.2011	D1	RoPS Rovaniemi	1-2	FC Honka Espoo
15.05.2011	D1	FC Honka Espoo	1-0	RoPS Rovaniemi
04.10.2009	D1	FC Honka Espoo	9-0	RoPS Rovaniemi
28.06.2009	D1	RoPS Rovaniemi	1-2	FC Honka Espoo

clean sweep in most recent matchesIn a busy day, I would rather focus on league matches with leagues at www.soccerstats.com

5pm - Elite 3000 v Brondby - 1.19 away - D3E v Division 1 here in this Danish Cup - Brondby have only won 1 of their last 10 away - potential shock on the cards or a safe realisation that they are playing a better calibre of team.
5pm - Rapid Bucharest v Juventus Bucharest - 1.15 home - division 1 v division 2 b and 1-0 in the cup in 2010.
545pm - Noordwijk v Ajax - 1.03 away - goals expected
Topklasse side v the might of Ajax in the Cup. 1.03 signals, normally, the ability to reach 6 goals at least and a threat to go into double figures if so desired. Shockingly illiquid markets alas.
545pm - Spartak Moscow v Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod - 1.31 home
6pm - Ham-Kam v Strommen - 1.38 home - Norwegian 2nd tier will have to go on the backburner in a busy day.
6pm - Marseille v Evian TG - 1.47 home

09.01.2011

Cup

Évian Thonon Gaillard

3-1

Olympique Marseille

Only one head to head suggests Evian are newcomers.
DDL so far at home for Marseille
DDDLLL so far overall and a win is overdue for Marseille. And against the right opponents that sequence without a win will end - perhaps in Evian they have met the right opponents.
DDD away for Evian so far this season.
DWDLDD overall. Notice the proliferation of D's in both teams' form figures.
Only 1 win in 12 matches for both sides this season makes for a potentially needy game! Marseille you suspect will be the ones under pressure to end their sequence.
6pm - Paris St-G v Nice - 1.38 home

20.02.2011	D1	OGC Nice	0-3	Paris St. Germain
03.10.2010	D1	Paris St. Germain	0-0	OGC Nice
20.03.2010	D1	OGC Nice	1-0	Paris St. Germain
07.11.2009	D1	Paris St. Germain	0-1	OGC Nice
05.04.2009	D1	Paris St. Germain	2-1	OGC Nice

Nice difficult to play against until the Feb 2011 result.
5th v 16th
LWW at home for PSG 1-0 loss v Lorient
LDWWWD overall
3 overs matches in the last 4.
Unbeaten in 5 matches.
LL away from home for Nice, both 1-0 losses.
LLDDLW for Nice overall.Sole win 3-0 at home v 17th.
Nice have failed to score in 3 of their 6 matches this season and only 2 matches of the 6 over 2.5 goals.
CONCLUSION - tough to call with so few matches in a league I do not concentrate on. Unders could be a call this evening but what of the comfortable 0-3 PSG win in FEb 2011
6pm - Weiz v Sturm Graz - 1.15 away - Austrian Cup - D3rm v Division 1
7pm - Atl Madrid v Gijon - 1.45 home
HEAD TO HEADS

23.01.2011	D1	Sporting Gijón	1-0	Atlético Madrid
30.08.2010	D1	Atlético Madrid	4-0	Sporting Gijón
18.08.2010	CF	Atlético Madrid	0-1	Sporting Gijón
08.05.2010	D1	Sporting Gijón	1-1	Atlético Madrid
17.01.2010	D1	Atlético Madrid	3-2	Sporting Gijón
26.04.2009	D1	Atlético Madrid	3-1	Sporting Gijón

Ath have scored 3-3-4 in important league matches in head to heads. it is a different story when they travel to Gijon.
Falcao is settling in nicely with a home hatrick in the last win.

LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 20th ( only 3 matches though)

HOME TEAM - Ath Madrid

RECENT HOME FORM - 0-0 draw v Osasuna and 4-0 win v Racing saw the aforementioned Falcao click.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLW - loss was 1-0 away to Valencia.

GOAL TRENDS - too early for trends - Ath have only scored in last match.

STREAKS - n/a

AWAY TEAM - Gijon

RECENT AWAY FORM - 2-1 away loss to Osasuna - 2-0 down

RECENT OVERALL FORM - 1-2 home loss v Sociedad saw them 2-0 down again , 2-1 away loss, 1-0 home loss to Valencia.

GOAL TRENDS - have conceded in all matches in the first half.

STREAKS - 3 match losing streak.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 3 matches gone so little to go on. New signing for Ath Madrid, Falcao , scored a hatrick last time out at home, and Madrid are priced to do the job again. They have scored 3-3-4 at home against Gijon in recent head to heads ( albeit with Aguero and Forlan) Gijon's losing streak will end soon, but maybe not tonight.

7pm - FC Vestsjaelland v FC Copenhagen - 1.3 away - cup match for ever dependable Copenhagen depends on attitude here.

27.09.2008

Sole head to head another cup game, another away, and another clean sheet win for Copenhagen.
Division 2 v Division 1 here and with a first team, you would expect a team like Copenhagen, with a winning habit, to continue here.
7pm - Santander v Real Madrid - 1.22 away

06.03.2011	D1	Racing Santander	1-3	Real Madrid
23.10.2010	D1	Real Madrid	6-1	Racing Santander
04.04.2010	D1	Racing Santander	0-2	Real Madrid
21.11.2009	D1	Real Madrid	1-0	Racing Santander
07.02.2009	D1	Real Madrid	1-0	Racing Santander
21.09.2008	D1	Racing Santander	0-2	Real Madrid

A league match today and always heartening to see a clean sweep in last 6 head to heads. Add that to the loss away at Levante and we have a recipe for a must win for Real Madrid particularly with Barca away at Valencia.
So far this season a 4-3 away loss to Valencia, 0-0 home draw v Levante and 4-0 away loss to Ath Madrid makes Racing vulnerable this evening.
Racing have failed to score in their last 2 matches.
Racing lost3 and drew 2 at home against the top 5 last season and picked up only 2 points in 10 matches.
3/4 wins away last season were against bottom 5 sides.
After scoring 10 in 2 games, I thought Real would beat Levante and go 2 points clear of Barca. They failed to do so, losing away again.I didn't watch the match so could not pinpoint any potential weaknesses but they will throw in the odd shocker ( like Celtic!!) when you expect an easy win.
Ronaldo, Benzema, Higuan surely must return to the 4 and 6 goals of the first 2 matches?
With 4 points the only difference between 1st and 2nd last season, a 2nd loss on the trot is inconceivable. Every Real loss last season was followed by a win.
Against the top 14 last season, Real won 11 and lost 2, against Barca and Osasuna.
Must wins tend to win is the maxim I would follow here as regards Real.
7pm - Standard v Hoogstraten - 1.06 home - Belgian Cup match sees a nice gulf in leagues.
715pm - Ross Co v Celtic - 1.24 away

10.04.2010

Wow! What chance a repeat this evening? Both goals 2nd half goals which suggest that if Celtic can score in the first half, then they should take this. Same price as Real Madrid away to Racing Santander. 2 losses on the trot for Celtic, albeit against Rangers and Ath Madrid , and again psychologically, 3 losses on the trot will dent confidence.
Ross County have 3 draws on the trot, but no draw for Celtic in last 12 overall and last 12 overall.
745pm - Ayr v Hearts - 1.48 away - Division 1 v Premiership and Ayr have lost their last 2 league matches conceding 4, so may be vulnerable this evening in another match in which research is thin on the ground.
745pm - Brighton v Liverpool - 1.68 away - Team news vital but with Brighton flying high like seagulls, this 1.68 for Liverpool might be worth a throwaway lay. A strong Liverpool side might change that though. Tough to tell without said team.
745pm - Chelsea v Fulham - 1.39 home - Chelsea have conceded in 4 of their last 5 and Fulham have score draw itis with 3 score draws on the trot and they have not won in 6. Team news again key for this Cup fixture.
745pm - Falkirk v Rangers - 1.27 away

30.01.2010	PR	Glasgow Rangers	3-0	Falkirk FC
05.12.2009	PR	Falkirk FC	1-3	Glasgow Rangers
15.08.2009	PR	Glasgow Rangers	4-1	Falkirk FC

Last 3 head to heads emphatic and we would want to see a strong Rangers side. If so, then 3 goals looks the call this evening.Falkirk have drawn 1 and won 4 of their last 5 home matches. Rangers have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 away Premiership matches and are coming off a confidence boosting win over Celtic, when 2-0 down. A first team should be able to replicate the head to heads against this now Division 1 side.
745pm - Juventus v Bologna - 1.36 home

26.02.2011	D1	Juventus FC	0-2	Bologna FC
24.10.2010	D1	Bologna FC	0-0	Juventus FC
21.02.2010	D1	Bologna FC	1-2	Juventus FC
27.09.2009	D1	Juventus FC	1-1	Bologna FC
14.03.2009	D1	Juventus FC	4-1	Bologna FC

2nd v 19th after 2 matches. 2 2nd half goals in Feb saw a Bologna win but now it is post transfer window. Plenty of action for Juve in the transfer window and some gems in a free for Pirlo, Luca Toni from Genoa, Tiago from Ath madrid, and biggest buys Matri and Vucinic,
Already some of the new signings have made an impact. Lichsteiner opened the scoring in the 4-1 home win v Parma, and Matri scored the sole winner away to Siena.
So new transfers are making a positive impact.
2 wins so far for Juve.
They have only conceded 1 so far, a 90th minute penalty.
Bologna have lost 2-0 home and away to Fiorentina and Lecce this season.
Far too early to be presumptuous, but does it look like Juve are better offensively, and defensively ( one 90th min penalty unlucky?) Compound that with Bologna's inability to score and we might have Juve opening the scoring with the new signings.
No real point me looking at last year because the Old Lady has done a lot of shopping!
745pm - Lommel Utd v Anderlecht - 1.41 away - Division 2 v Division 1 in the Belgian Cup. Head to heads from 2002. Anderlecht are unbeaten in their last 9.
745pm - Man City v Birmingham - 1.22 home
Strength in depth at City, despite what the manager may conjure up as an excuse for dropped points at Fulham. Brum likely have Premier League in mind and Hughton likely to field a weakened side. Should be a home win here in this Carling Cup match. Team news key as ever.
16 City league cup matches without a draw.
23 Brum league cup matches without a draw.
745pm - Southampton v Preston - 1.58 home
9pm - Valencia v Barcelona - 1.47 away
HEAD TO HEADS

02.03.2011	D1	Valencia CF	0-1	FC Barcelona
16.10.2010	D1	FC Barcelona	2-1	Valencia CF
14.03.2010	D1	FC Barcelona	3-0	Valencia CF
17.10.2009	D1	Valencia CF	0-0	FC Barcelona
25.04.2009	D1	Valencia CF	2-2	FC Barcelona

A tough place to visit for Barca , it taking a 77th minute Messi winner last match.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 4th after 3 matches

HOME TEAM - Valencia - last season they only lost 4 at home, and importantly 2 of those were against 1st and 2nd in the league.( Barca and Real Madrid)

RECENT HOME FORM - WW - Soldado the hero here , scoring a hatrick in the first match and the winner against Ath Madrid.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWW - 4-3- home win v Racing ( 2 late Soldado goals put a gloss on the win) , 1-0 v Ath madrid, 0-1 away win v Sociedad and that man Soldado scored again.

GOAL TRENDS - Soldado has scored 5/6 Valencia goals.Last 2 wins 1-0's

STREAKS - 3 match winning streak.

AWAY TEAM - BARCA

RECENT AWAY FORM - 2-2 draw with Real Sociedad when 0-2 up - Champions League distraction?

RECENT OVERALL FORM- WDW - 2 home wins scoring 8 and 5.

GOAL TRENDS - all overs and all over 3.5 goals.

STREAKS - unbeaten in 3.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is a tough match to predict because of the changes in personnel at Barca -Mata the big mover out for Valencia. Fabregas and Sanchez the 2 big Barca signings along with the excellent Affelay from PSV.
Bojan and Jeffren out of the team, and for me Bojan really was a class act.
THis Barca has chosen at home that they are getting better and better. Formlines dictate a tight match but Barca unlikely to lose I suspect. Valencia could not beat them home or away last season. Reactive traders might note the potential for a late goal?

345 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Debussy, 7/2 Prince Siegfried, 5/1 Fallen Idol, 8/1 Distant Memories, 17/2 Measuring Time, 9/1 Opera Gal, 10/1 Hunter´s Light, 12/1 Mirror Lake.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DEBUSSY (nap) is readily preferred, having looked on the way back to something approaching his high-class best when winning well in a Chester Listed race last time and with this return to 1m2f a definite plus too. He can give Godolphin a sixth win in this since 2003, with another representing the same own, Prince Siegfried, the main danger after returning to his very best when winning a Windsor Group 3 last time. Fallen Idol and Measuring Time are best of the rest. [Mel Cullinan]

8 runners and 3 places and a hope the 4 under 10/1 dominate

455 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Tameen, 8/1 Tahaamah, 9/1 Nave, 9/1 Valid Reason, 10/1 Kristalette, 12/1 Yes Chef, 14/1 Big Creek, 14/1 Dance Tempo, 14/1 Significant Move, 16/1 La Estrella, 16/1 Samsons Son, 16/1 Time To Work, 20/1 Blimey O´riley.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It would probably be a big help for TAMEEN if the ground stays on the soft side but this 3yo is a filly of potential anyway at 1m4f, having won so well over C&D ten days ago. Some of the others are unexposed but Valid Reason looks the chief threat, assuming he's in the same form as for his recent belated reappearance.[Richard Austen]

Biggest price gapper of the day - 15/8 - - - 9/1 - I got involved in a handicap yesterday but not with such a pronounced price gap as today.

620 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Lupo D´oro, 4/1 Meloneras, 6/1 Athenian, 12/1 Meet Joe Black, 12/1 Planet I T, 12/1 The Name Is Don, 14/1 Invincible Beauty, 20/1 Kaylee, 33/1 Clouds Of Glory, 33/1 Electric Daydream.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With some of the more interesting contenders having wide draws to overcome, notably Lupo D'Oro, this could be the opportunity for MELONERAS to get off the mark. She has her limitations but an easy 5f is what she wants and she has the plum draw this time.[Paul Smith]

5 under 16/1 here and Meloneras could be risked here - 2 2nds last time and plenty of experience which is good for a maiden.

225 PERTH

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mart Lane, 11/8 Hard To Swallow, 10/1 Warrants A Name, 25/1 Bolt From The Blue, 25/1 Frontier Lad, 33/1 Boston Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to concern the two bumper winners MART LANE and Hard To Swallow, who both looked decent prospects last season. The Irish raider represents a yard in red-hot form (four winners from last seven runners) and that tips the scales slightly in his direction.[Stuart Redding]

Now 2 under 20/1 in this maiden hurdle and a hope that the front 2 dominate.

SHORTLIST

Some of the football I have not done as I am running low on time