back-lay-trade-horses-football: 4/9

Norwegian 2nd division should be full of goals today.and I would go with Hodd to beat Randaberg

*****ONE A DAY - 5pm - Hodd v Randaberg - back Hodd in the match odds at 1.27 or below***** - illiquid market. Bookmakers likely to offer this match in a weekend of no domestic action. I would wait til nearer 5pm and hope for liquidity

All my heart an excellent bet - 6 runners - 3 places - and a price gapper. He won.

Quiet day football wise.

Midday - Tenerife v Conquense - 1.43 home - Spanish 3rd tier and there was me thinking tenerife used to be top flight? They were relegated from 2nd division last year and look to be dominating this weaker league. 3-0 and 1-3 wins so far for Tenerife. Yes no conclusions can be drawn from only 2 matches.
0-0 draw and 0-2 loss for Conquese - yet to score.
And that is that folks! Not much to go on.
1230pm - Madagascar v Nigeria - 1.2 away - madagascar have only won 1 of their last 12. Last 6 home matches 1-1 or lower scorelines.Nigeria recent losses against Costa Rica and Togo.7 losses and 2 draws in last 9 away for Nigeria - 4 1-0 losses and 2 2-1 losses ( against Greece and South Korea)
1230pm - Hougang Utd v Etoile - 1.54 away
HEAD TO HEADS

07.03.2011	D1	Etoile FC (S)	4-2	Hougang United
27.07.2010	D1	Etoile FC (S)	1-0	Sengkang Punggol
12.05.2010	D1	Sengkang Punggol	0-1	Etoile FC (S)
04.03.2010	LC	Etoile FC (S)	1-0	Sengkang Punggol
17.02.2010	D1	Etoile FC (S)	2-2	Sengkang Punggol

inconclusive head to heads. You think it's a tight trend then suddenly 2011 sees a 4-2.

LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 5th - Etoile in a slightly false position having generally played one game less than opponents. A win, for instance, takes them 3rd.

HOME TEAM - HOUGANG

RECENT HOME FORM - LWDLWWLWL - no draw in 6. Wins v 4th, 2nd and 8th quite impressive considering who they are playing today. Losses recently v 3rd, 6th and 11th tell us this Hougang side are inconsistent, winning and losing in turn to teams spread through the league.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWLWWLWLLL - no draw in ages. Lay the draw today? Losses recently against 4th, 11th, 9th, 2nd again underline inconsistencies. For instance, they have beaten 2nd at home.In recent matches, Hougang have conceded 2-2-2-5-0-3-2-3 which augurs well for an Etoile side who managed 4 against them at home last head to head.

GOAL TRENDS - average 2.4 goals conceded in last 8 matches. 5 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw, 4 clean sheets - 1.3 scored , 1.6 conceded on average at home - 2 conceded on average overall.

STREAKS - only 1 draw at home in last 27 home matches.

AWAY TEAM - ETOILE

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWWDWWLWD - recent loss v 2nd in the league was a 1-0.Recent draw v 9th saw an 88th minute equaliser. Wins against 4th,11th, 1st, 10th, 12th away recently. 0-1 the scalp of the leaders.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWWLWWWWD - solitary draw again backs up the lay the draw idea. Only 4 draws in their last 38 matches!

GOAL TRENDS 7/10 recent away matches under 2.5 goals - 7 wins, 2 losses, 2 draws 5 clean sheets away.1.55 scored 0.64 conceded away from home on average. And when an average dips so far below 1 take note!

STREAKS - the lack of a draw in overall form ( only 4 in last 38) backs up the Hougang general lack of a draw stats.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - lay the draw is obvious, but then if we lay the draw, we have 2 options, a home win or an away win, and with the way Hougang have conceded 2.4 on average in their last 8 matches, Etoile could be the ones to exploit it. 5 away clean sheets for Etoile might compound the argument.

1pm - Randers v Hobro - 1.34 home - Randers newly relegated so should find it easier in 2nd tier. And the odds back that up, but again we only have 3 matches to work on.
4-1 home win, 1-0 away loss, 0-0 away draw for Randers.
1-1 home draw
1-6 away win
1-4 home loss to the team Randers beat 4-1 at home!. This is the only piece of collateral form but looks compelling doesn't it?
2pm - Sampdoria v Gubbio - 1.45 home - wow, quite a shock to see Sampdoria in Seria B. A feeling they should dominate this league based on their pedigree.
2-2 home draw and 0-0 away draw.
And like my argument with, I think, Huddersfield. These draws must end soon otherwise Samp are not losing matches yet leaking 2 points on each occasion.
2-0 away loss, 2-3 home loss for Gubbio so far this season.
A chance for Samp to break that draw sequence ( albeit it is a small one, but a significant one as it occurs at the beginning of a campaign in a weaker league)
5pm - Bodo/Glimt v Lov Ham - 1.2 home -Norwegian 2nd division.

22.05.2011	D2	Lov-Ham	0-1	FK Bodo/Glimt
12.09.2010	D2	Lov-Ham	0-1	FK Bodo/Glimt
05.05.2010	D2	FK Bodo/Glimt	3-0	Lov-Ham

clean sweep in recent relevant head to heads, albeit 2 1-0's on the trot ( they were Bodo away wins)

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 15th

HOME TEAM BODO

RECENT HOME FORM - DDDWWWWWDW - unlikely to lose at home. 3-4-1-3-3-0-3 -goals scored by Bodo in recent homes.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDWLWWDWDWW - only losses recently against 2nd and 16th! Marked contrast in the league.

GOAL TRENDS - have scored 3 in 3 of last 4 matches. 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 clean sheets - 2 scored on average - 0.6 conceded at home. again sub 1 on averages is a standout stat for me.

STREAKS - 17 home matches without a loss in all competition.

AWAY TEAM Lov Ham

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDDLLLLDW - recent win was a 3-4 win against 8th, rather out of keeping with general away form. 3-4-2-5-2-3 conceded by Lov Ham in their last 6 away matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLLLWLLDDWL - 2 wins coincidentally 4-3 scorelines against 16th ( of 16) and 8th.

GOAL TRENDS - 8/10 overall matches over 2.5 goals recently -1 win, 6 losses, 3 draws - 2 clean sheets - 1.1 scored, 2.2 conceded on average away.

STREAKS - what to make of recent unbeaten streak of 2 away and 3 of 4 overall?

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this should be a Bodo home win, but the tightness of last 2 head to heads is there for all to see, albeit they were away from home for Bodo. Lov Ham have conceded an average of 3 goals in their last 6 away matches. Bodo have scored 3 in 3 of their last 4 matches. Ergo a 3 goal win today?

5pm - Hodd v Randaberg - 1.27 home
HEAD TO HEADS

05.06.2011

Randaberg IL

2-2

IL Hodd

Hodd were 2-0 up in this head to head. And the 1.27 tells us they should repeat the dose, only this time hold on to the lead?

LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 16th of 16 in the Norwegian 2nd division. 30 points play 12

HOME TEAM - HODD

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWDWWLLL - recent losses v 2nd, 4th and 15th ( playing 16th today!)The loss against 15th was a 3-4 loss and Hodd did score first ( traders note) Losses against 2nd and 4th not shabby! 9/10 home matches over 2.5 goals. Hodd have only failed to score in 2 at home this season - against 2nd and 3rd, so seem to be able to handle all bar the top 4.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWWLLLWLL - no draw in recent form - 9/10 recent matchs over 2.5 goals and some convincingly so. 5 losses in last 6 against 2nd, 4th, 5th, 10th, 15th.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 3 losses, 2 draw, 5 clean sheets, 2.1 scored , 1.3 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 11 without a draw overall in all competitions. 5 at home without a draw. Lost last 3 at home.

AWAY TEAM - RANDABERG

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLLDLLLL - conclusive. 0-0 draw against 6th.10/11 away matches over 2.5 goals.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLWLLLLL - last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Wins against 5th and 7th were home wins.

GOAL TRENDS - over 2.5 goals away 9/10 and overall -last 7 matches

STREAKS - 8 overall without a draw - 15 away without a win

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - over 2.5 goals a real goer here if the form is accurate and upheld.

5pm - Sandefjord v Nybergsund - 1.23 home
HEAD TO HEADS

16.05.2011	D2	Nybergsund IL-Trysil	4-2	Sandefjord
21.09.2008	D2	Sandefjord	1-1	Nybergsund IL-Trysil

Only one relevant head to head and outsiders score 4 at home!

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 14th so what to make of the May result? Anomolous?

HOME TEAM - SAND

RECENT HOME FORM - DWLWWDLWWL - recent losses v 5th, 6th, 11th should augur well against bottom 3 side. 4/5 matches over 2.5 goals

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWWWWWLW - last 11 matches overall over 2.5 goals. Last 3 losses have all been 2-1.

GOAL TRENDS - over 2.5 goals a real trend with this team and dare I say with the Norwegian 2nd division so far in featured matches. 5 wins, 3 losses, 2 draws - 2 scored, 0.9 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 11 overall without a draw - last 11 overall all over 2.5 goals.

AWAY TEAM - NYBERG

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLDLLLL - says it all really.2-2 draw v 12th. Have failed to score in last 4 away since the 2-2 draw.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLWLLLLL - sole win against 6th and comprehensive home win. Have failed to score in 5 of the last 7 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - 9 defeats, 1 draw away, 2.6 conceded on average per match.

STREAKS - 13 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -An average 2.6 conceded by away side away should signal a goals trade today

Concern with Norwegian 2nd division may be the lack of liquidity?

540 DUNDALK

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Akinspirit, 6/1 Peccatorum, 6/1 Sir Cecil´s Girl, 8/1 Mokama, 8/1 Vital Plot, 10/1 Winnie Minnie, 12/1 Caracal, 14/1 Mobane Ali, 16/1 Bashkirov, 20/1 The Catenian, 20/1 White Feathers, 25/1 Lord Chancellor, 25/1 Master Marvel, 33/1 In Step.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AKINSPIRIT (nap) stands out a mile on recent form and it is difficult to make a case for virtually all of the others. Peccatorum is worth considering. [Johnny Ward]

Price gapper " stands out a mile"? 13/8 - - - 7/1 in the live betting market.

SHORTLIST