*****200 SALISBURY - Avon River to place only**** - hope for around 1.26, Betfair SP should be around that if the market is illiquid.
Dare to dream won.
1230pm - Home Utd v Young Lions - 1.32 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 20.04.2011 | D1 | Young Lions | 0-1 | Home United | |
| 29.07.2010 | D1 | Home United | 2-1 | Young Lions | |
| 24.05.2010 | Cup | Young Lions | 2-0 | Home United | |
| 13.05.2010 | D1 | Young Lions | 2-1 | Home United | |
| 09.02.2010 | D1 | Home United | 2-2 | Young Lions | |
| 22.09.2009 | D1 | Young Lions | 2-1 | Home United |
At home we have oouuoooouooo - again a trend towards over 2.5 goals.2 of the 3 under 2.5 goal matches had 2 goals.
2pm - FK Jablonec v Dukla Prague - 1.37 home - Czech Cup featuring 2 teams from the top flight and I do prefer league matches with teams from different leagues as you see below.
330pm - Jaegersborg v FC Midtjylland - 1.07 away - Danish Cup, Division 4 v Division 1 and obvious chance for goals this afternoon.
430pm - HJK Helsinki v Jaro - 1.32 home - as I mentioned recently, Helsinki should win but do not necessarily need to win in a league they dominate.
5pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Porto - 2.52 away - Porto were renowned last year for doing what was required in Europe i.e. they won when they needed to. No Falcao this year a slight dent on an excellent forward line. In their last 11 Champions league matches, Zenit have only won 3 matches, against Bate, Auxerre, and Unirea - hardly strong form in this competition. In 2011 they lost 2-1 away at APOEL with 2 70th+ minute winners for APOEL.
Porto have not had a draw in their last 9 CL matches.DDLWWL in CL since 2009 - 2 losses v Chelsea ( 1-0) and Arsenal (5-0). I cannot see Zenit in the same category of a top 4 Premiership side.
2.52 a reasonable value punt I would suspect. Porto certainly have the forward line to make some impact. Trust them to score first? If Zenit score first they might be vulnerable and layable?
745pm - AC Milan v Plzen - 1.32 - surprise winners over FC COpenhagen but Plzen are now facing the real big boys. Robinho, Pato and Ibra out for AC Milan. How much does that blunt the attack?REcent AC Milan form in CL since 2010
LLWDLDWLLDD - 2 wins only against Auxerre twice. Again it is poor overall.
In 2011 it is DD so far 0-0 v Spurs and 2-2 v Barcelona thanks to a 90th minute equaliser.
At home in the CL, LLDDLWDLL with the sole win v Auxerre recently.
Plzen are an unknown of course, and as I said shocked Copenhagen. WWWWD so far sees victories over Rosenborg, and COpenhagen, and a 1-1 draw at home v Bate.
Logic dictates this is a huge step up for Plzen but what impact the missing forward line for Milan?
745pm - Arsenal v Olympiakos - 1.44 home - about the same odds as against Bolton at the weekend and scored 3. Olympiakos likely to be typically Greek - dour defensively. Arsenal have scored 3 in their last 3 matches.
WDLWWWLLWWLWWD -although Arse had a recent 1-1 away draw v Dortmund, there is a general trend against the draw as the above CL matches since 2010 attest.
Arsenal have only lost 3 matches at home in the Champions League since 2002. That is some home record - they must be doing something right. Recent home CL form since 2009 reads WWLWWWWWDWWWWW - loss v Man Utd and draw was a 2-2 v Barcelona . No wonder the odds are so short for Arse tonight.
WWWWWLWLDWLLL - since 2009, wins not too impressive against Anorthosis, Bratislava, Sheriff and AZ.
But did beat Arsenal 1-0 at home in December 2009;
LLWWLLDL away for Oly in the CL , wins against Slovan Bratislava and Sheriff. Lost 3 of last 4 aways v Arse, Standard Liege and Bordeaux. Although there has been a recent draw, again the general trend is against a draw , as with the Arse.
Bordeaux did need an 88th minute goal to win.
745pm - BATE Borisov v Barcelona - 1.18 away - at any stage Barca can just let loose. Remember though how Rubin Kazan frustrated Barca. What chance a similar display from BATE?
DWDWDWD for Bate so far in 2011 sees wins against the likes of Linfield, Ekranas and Sturm Graz.
Most recently a 1-1 draw v Plzen.
DDWD away in 2011 -win v Sturm Graz, draws v Linfield, Ekranas and Plzen.
3 draws in last 5 matches overall is sloppy of Barca, but surely no draw today?
2 losses since 2010 for Barca were both 3-1 and both away from home.
LWWWWDWD for Barca most recently overall in the Cl
WWWWWWWWDWD at home for Barca - draws v Real and Milan saw Barca leading at some stage during the match. Unlikely Bate are anywhere near the level of those 2 teams.
745pm - Leverkusen v Genk - 1.39 home - interestingly Leverkusen have a 19 year old keeper between the sticks because their 1st and 2nd choice keepers are injured. The Racing Post equates this with goals this evening. I am a fan of Genk it must be said, and they are capable of exploiting a nervous inexperienced Cat.
Leverkusen have conceded 4 and 3 in their last 2 league matches but researchers could have told you this was possible against Koln and Bayern Munich away. Not really put down to having an inexperienced goalie.
Leverkusen have been absent from the Champions League since they were last in in 2005. Their new campaign began with a 2-0 home loss to Chelsea with a 67th and 90th minute goal concession. Again that is hardly conclusive evidence of a crumbling goalkeeper!
WDLWD for GEnk so far in the CL - wins v Partizan and Maccaibi Haifa. Last match saw an impressive, in these eyes, 0-0 draw home to Valencia.
genk have scored a goal in their 2 away CL 2011 matches against PArtizan and Maccaibi Haifa.
1.39 is a short price for Leverkusen this evening in their first Champions League campaign in 6 years.
745pm - Shakhtar v APOEL - 1.44 home - WWLWWWWWLLL since 2010 in the CL for Shaktar - they seem to avoid the draw of late. Last 3 losses v barca twice , and Porto. Prior to that , they beat Arsenal, Partizan, Braga and Roma - a decent selection of teams and likely to be better teams than APOEL.
WWWWL since 2010 for Shaktar at home. Lost 0-1 to barca to a 43rd minute Messi goal. Decent home form generally.
WWDWLWW for APOEL in 2011 CL but the teams they have played include Korce, Wisla Krakow and Slovan Bratislava
WWL in recent aways against the teams mentioned above.
Looks like we can lay the draw at least here , and if we can lay the draw, it follows the result should be home win/away win and the odds and the pedigree of team Shaktar have played, suggest a home win.
745pm - Valencia v Chelsea - 2.6 away
WLDWWDDLD fro Valencia in the Cl since 2010 - recent draws against Man Utd, Schalke and Genk. Loss was v Schalke.
LWWD at home.Loss was 0-1 v Man Utd which might point us to possible result this evening against another Premiership team.
Wins against Rangers and Bursaspor, not quite the same calibre of today's opponents.
LLWWWWWLWDLLW- recent win was away to Leverkusen - last 2 losses v Man Utd.
LWWLWL - no recent draw away from home. This contrasts with Valencia's 3 draws in last 4 but only 1 draw recently.
Toughie to call. Go with what the odds say? This will be tight?
Also interesting note from Racing Post that Chelsea are unbeaten on their last 6 visits to Spain, including 4 draws.
740 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Spunky, 5/1 Valiant Runner, 8/1 Orwellian, 10/1 Anginola, 10/1 Behlul, 10/1 Methaen, 12/1 Alborz, 14/1 Always A Sinner, 14/1 Big Time Charlie, 14/1 Ironically, 14/1 Northern Territory, 16/1 Percythepinto, 20/1 Vergrigio, 25/1 Siouxperhero.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SPUNKY didn't appear to have his mind fully focused on the job when giving himself a lot to do here last time (got warm beforehand) and he remains an interesting proposition off his current mark. Valiant Runner is another who hinted at better to come on a recent visit here.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
15/8 - - - 7/1 price gapper this Spunky for Fallon/Cumani, should come on for last run. Extremely popular in the market. 2 year old maiden the niggle.
310 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Van Der Art, 7/2 Khaleejiya, 5/1 Tahnee Mara, 11/2 Persidha, 13/2 Perfect Paradise, 16/1 Kyleakin Lass, 20/1 Trioomph, 25/1 Indivisible, 25/1 Last Supper, 33/1 Watanee, 40/1 Bright Eyed Girl, 100/1 Cherchedi.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: 78-rated VAN DER ART has had a few chances but she sets the standard on her latest third at Haydock and that form was boosted when the runner-up Accession comfortably justified favouritism in a Newbury maiden next time. The main dangers are Khaleejiya, Persidha and Tahnee Mara. [David Moon]
5 under 16/1 here but a maiden fillies. Still if the race is dominated by these 5 then this becomes a good probability race for the 3 places.
11/8 - - - 6/1 with Khylean Lass the 16/1 horse now showing at 10/1
300 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Avon River, 4/1 Rock The Stars, 5/1 Orange Ace, 13/2 Kingarrick, 8/1 Signor Verdi, 10/1 Persian Herald, 12/1 Rosairlie, 14/1 Lord Of The Storm.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these are having their first crack at claiming grade and consequently may be able to step up on their recent efforts but it's difficult to get away from AVON RIVER who has a solid record at this level, comes out best on adjusted BHA ratings and makes plenty of tactical appeal to boot (good chance he can dictate again).[Steve Boow]
Hannon/Hughes price gapper favourite in an 8 runner, 3 place race is very interesting. 5/4 - - - -5/1 in the live betting market.
SHORTLIST
330pm - Jaegersborg v FC Midtjylland - 1.07 away- ridiculously illiquid markets a pity.5pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Porto - 2.52 away - any speculator might be enticed by the 2.52 for Porto. Perhaps backable to trade if Porto score first.
745pm - Arsenal v Olympiakos - 1.44 home - look at Arsenal's home record in the Champions League. It is ample evidence to support the 1.44 quote this evening. LLDL for Olympiakos in their last 4 away Champions League matches.
745pm - Shakhtar v APOEL - 1.44 home - always have to be aware with Greek like sides as they can be dour defensively but Shaktar have the Champions League form in the book and against better teams than APOEL.
745pm - BATE Borisov v Barcelona - 1.18 away - complete unknowns of course and Barca away from home could conceivably be a Rubin Kazan type match . But then Barca this year look even better and should win with relative ease - sub 1.2 indicates 3/4 goals but we must remember they are away from home.
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