Sunday 18 September 2011

18/9

I am afraid I am running late so those of you who want to read the football analysis in full, please visit www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com intermittently between the time you receive the email and now, otherwise this message would be delayed getting out. I will continue research during the day.

As to the one a day, well real Madrid MUST win in order to go 2 points clear of Barca this early in the season . Porto look as dependable as they come. Elsewhere, Rangers v Celtic should equal red and yellow cards.
Horse racing wise, 340 Hamilton sees Jeannie Gallaway an original favourite now in a 6 horse race for 3 places. 1.26 is very tempting.

*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Levante v real Madrid - back real madrid in the match odds at 1.27. Surely they must take advantage of Barca's slip up v Sociedad - as Levante kept them at 0-0 last time they met at Levante, consider backing 0-0 as an insurance bet. It should only cost about £3 for £100 stake on Real Madrid




Leverkusen I was not confident on the win so went for neutral goals and Koln delivered.


1pm -
Helsingborgs v Mjallby - 1.42 home



All wins for Helsing but all hard fought wins.


WWDWWDWWDWWW at home this season for Helsingsborg - a sequence of WWD broken last time out.


Draws at home v 4th, 5th and 8th all score draws.


LWWDDWWDWWDWWWWWD - 6/7 draws this season score draws for Helsings _good overall form here shows only one loss all season.


50/50 overs at home. Helsings have scored in all matches at home. Score 2.16 on average and concede 0.75 at home on average.


9 of last 11 matches over 2.5 goals. A run of 7 overs matches ended with 2 2 goal games.


Helsings have only failed to score in one match this season.


Have won 2-0, 3-0, and 3-0 against 9th, 10th and 13th ( Mjallby is 12th)


No defeat in 12 at home, 16 overall and a 3 match current winning streak at home.


MJALLBY


LLWLDLLLLWWL for Mjallby away from home.


Wins away v 6th, 9th and 11th. Importantly have lost all away matches against 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th all without scoring and all while conceding 3 or more goals.


WLLLWWDWWLDL overall for Mjallby is a tad inconsistent.


58% over 2.5 goals away from home. Score on average 0.75 and conceded 1.83 away .


HAve failed to score in 2/3rd of away matches and as I said against all of top 6 away.


Have failed to score in last 3 matches recently.


7 match streak away without a draw.


CONCLUSIONS - I acknowledge the tight head to heads and they are consistent over time. As it the fact that Hels has won 3/4 head to heads without conceding. And remember that Mjallby have lost away to all top 6 without scoring.


A win to nil therefore beckons for the home team with a single loss all season. A score draw looks a possible worse case scenario. I am not discounting a 1-0 win, so correct scores potentially 1-0, 2-0, 3-0?
130pm - Odesa v Dinamo Kiev - 1.28 away
05.12.2009 D1 Chernomorets Od. 0-1 Dynamo Kiev
18.07.2009 D1 Dynamo Kiev 5-0 Chernomorets Od.
12.04.2009 D1 Dynamo Kiev 3-1 Chernomorets Od.
No recent head to heads and on a busy Sunday I would rather focus on soccerstats.com leagues.
15th v 2nd in the league. No win in 9 overall for Cherno/Odessa includes, though, 5 draws.
NO win in 5 at home, but drew last 3, including 2-2 against top side Shaktar.
Kiev have won 6 and drawn 1 of last 7 matches.


Spurs team news


Manager Harry Redknapp will revert to his first-choice XI after resting a number of key players for last night's Europa League clash at PAOK Salonika.

Rafael van der Vaart (hamstring), Aaron Lennon (groin) and William Gallas (calf) are making good progress in their recovery from injury and could play some part in the game at White Hart Lane.

Steven Pienaar (groin), Tom Huddlestone (ankle) and Ledley King (knee) face fitness tests but Michael Dawson (Achilles) is out and Sandro (knee) is unlikely to be risked despite returning to light training following a knee injury he suffered this summer.

Liverpool team news

Right-back Glen Johnson will miss out after a recurrence of a hamstring injury last weekend.



Captain Steven Gerrard is nearing a return to fitness after six months out following a groin operation but he may not be risked at White Hart Lane.



Defender Martin Kelly is also close to a recall after coming back from a hamstring injury.

squadsTottenham Hotspur: Gomes, Friedel, Cudicini, Bale, Kaboul, Bassong, Gallas, Corluka, Walker, King, Assou-Ekotto, Parker, Huddlestone, Lennon, Modric, Kranjcar, Livermore, Townsend, Lennon, Pienaar, Pavlyuchenko, Defoe, Dos Santos, Adebayor, Van der Vaart.

Liverpool: Squad will appear here shortly.





Spurs win at home last 2 head to heads and won at Liverpool on 15th May, but note the date - v important match for Spurs with European Competition at stake.


LEAGUE POSITION - 17 v 6th - 4 matches v 3 matches so irrelevant.

HOME TEAM - SPURS

RECENT HOME FORM - 1-5 loss to City

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLW - City/United and a win v Wolves

GOAL TRENDS - only 3 matches and Spurs have scored in the last 2. Remember, new signings might add an extra spark - Adebayour already scored. Parker a welcome addition as is Friedel, superbly consistent.

STREAKS n/a - only 3 matches
AWAY TEAM - LIVERPOOL

RECENT AWAY FORM - WL - win v Arsenal and loss v Stoke.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWWL
GOAL TRENDS - only failed to score in last match against Stoke.

STREAKS n/a
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS



Hard fought wins for Twente recently? At home, they have scored 3 in their last 2 meetings.
4th v 15th of 18.
Twente - ww at home - 2-0 v AZ and 4-1 v VVV - AZ impressive result as AZ have had a strong start to the campaign.
WWWWL overall - the loss saw Twente score first for traders .An unexpected loss away it must be said.
Twente have scored 2 and 4 at home so far , have scored in every match so far this season, and last 3 matches have all been over 2.5 goals. 9 of Twente's 13 goals have been scored in the first half.
ADO DEN HAAG
LW so far away - 4-2 loss to Groningen and 0-3 away win v De Graafshap.
DLLWL overall - only one win.0-3 home loss v PSV and Twente are closely equated with PSV in my mind.


All overs away from home so far for ADO albeit only 2 matches.


2 away without a draw, 4 overall without a draw.


CONCLUSIONS - as I mentioned in yesterday's negatives , 5 matches not ideal material to form a strong conclusion. Twente have scored 3-3-2 in last 3 head to heads as well as conceding in each of those matches. A natural over 1.5 goals might be stretched to over 2.5 goals. Enhanced traders note if ADO score first, we should have an enhanced bet ( I only mention this because of the fact that they have scored against Twente in the last 3 head to heads )
3pm - Fulham v Man City - 1.66 away - strong home rep for Fulham but this new City line up looks money very well spent.

SUNDERLAND TEAM NEWS

John O'Shea could return to bolster Sunderland's defence.

The Republic of Ireland defender missed the defeat by Chelsea due to a calf strain but has returned to training.

Nicklas Bendtner is likely lead the attack and Connor Wickham could make his first start.

Craig Gordon, Fraizer Campbell and David Meyler (all knee) remain sidelined.

STOKE TEAM NEWS

Stoke boss Tony Pulis will check on the condition of a host of players.

Several squad members did not travel to Ukraine for this week's Europa League game against Dynamo Kiev, with record signing Peter Crouch staying at home as a precaution after missing training, and Matthew Etherington (back), Rory Delap (groin) and Marc Wilson (hamstring) also absent from the trip.

That quartet and Jonathan Woodgate, who is not registered for the Potters' European campaign and has been working to shake off a minor injury, are among those that will be assessed, while goalkeeper Asmir Begovic - rested for the Dynamo game - is expected to return in place of Thomas Sorensen.

SQUADS

Sunderland: Mignolet, Westwood, Bardsley, Brown, O'Shea, Richardson, Turner, Bramble, Laing, Cattermole, Gardner, Vaughan, Colback, Elmohamady, Bendtner, Sessegnon, Wickham, Ji, Cook.

Stoke City: Begovic, Wilson, Huth, Shawcross, Upson, Wilkinson, Whelan, Whitehead, Diao, Etherington, Walters, Jones, Sorensen, Shotton, Arismendi, Woodgate, Pennant, Delap, Crouch, Palacios, Jerome.

05.02.2011PRStoke City3-2Sunderland AFC
06.11.2010PRSunderland AFC2-0Stoke City
01.02.2010PRSunderland AFC0-0Stoke City
29.08.2009PRStoke City1-0Sunderland AFC
07.02.2009PRSunderland AFC2-0Stoke City

For 2 defensive sides, head to heads have featured goals.

LEAGUE POSITION 19th v 5th

HOME TEAM - SUNDERLAND

RECENT HOME FORM - LL - only scored 1 - -possible Crouch absent

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLDL - Sunderland have only scored 2 so far this season.

GOAL TRENDS - Chelsea match latest the only overs match ( and that was c/o a 90th minute goal so inference that under 2.5 goals more likely trend for Sunderland)

STREAKS - no win in 4.

AWAY TEAM - STOKE

RECENT AWAY FORM - DW - both goals scored in these 2 matches were 90 minute goals.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWW - all under 2.5 goals and Stoke have kept a clean sheet in 3 of 4 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - -unders an obvious trend but not really in recent head to heads.

STREAKS - 2 match winning streak - 2 matches without conceding.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
NEGATIVES - there is a conflict between head to heads and recent form , especially or Stoke who have 3 clean sheets in 4 and all under 2.5 goals.
Sunderland have trouble scoring.
Another negative is the fact we only have 4 matches and Stoke especially have made some good signings who could make a great impact if playing. Sunderland have made primarily defensive signings. It all points to under 2.5 goals but then the new signings in both camps might change that. At any rate, it would seem Stoke are going to be hard to score against. Possible chance them to score first?
330pm -
Spartak Moscow v Kryliya Sovetov - 1.33 home
4pm -
Man Utd v Chelsea - 1.91 home - advantage United would be my knee jerk reaction as Chelsea continue to be jammy barstewards with own goals and late goals and wholly unimpressive performances.

Man Utd team news

Sir Alex Ferguson has reported no fresh injury concerns.

Nemanja Vidic (calf), Tom Cleverley (foot) and Rafael (shoulder) remain sidelined, whilst Danny Welbeck (hamstring) is not expected to be available until next week.

Changes are anticipated though, with Ferguson expected to recall many of the players who were left out of his starting line-up for the midweek Champions League draw with Benfica.

Chelsea team news

Chelsea will once again be without Didier Drogba.

The striker will not be risked at Old Trafford three weeks after his sickening head injury, meaning manager Andre Villas-Boas must decide whether to start Fernando Torres or Nicolas Anelka.

Ramires returns after being suspended for Tuesday's Champions League win over Bayer Leverkusen, while goalkeeping understudies Hilario and Ross Turnbull are both carrying knocks, although one will be on the bench.
squads
Manchester United: De Gea, Lindegaard; Evans, Evra, Fabio, Jones, Smalling, Ferdinand, Anderson, Carrick, Fletcher, Giggs, Nani, Park, Valencia, Young; Berbatov, Hernandez, Owen, Rooney.
Chelsea: Cech, Ivanovic, Bosingwa, Ferreira, Terry, Luiz, Alex, Cole, Mikel, Romeu, McEachran, Ramires, Lampard, Meireles, Mata, Malouda, Torres, Anelka, Sturridge, Kalou, Lukaku, Hilario, Turnbull.
Torres unlikely to be picked I suspect with Anelka more reliable in Drogba's absence.

HEAD TO HEADS
08.05.2011PRManchester United2-1Chelsea FC
12.04.2011CLManchester United2-1Chelsea FC
06.04.2011CLChelsea FC0-1Manchester United
01.03.2011PRChelsea FC2-1Manchester United
08.08.2010CSChelsea FC1-3Manchester United
03.04.2010PRManchester United1-2Chelsea FC

2011 matches tight United wins

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 3rd

HOME TEAM - UNITED

RECENT HOME FORM - WW scoring 3 and 8 v Spuds and Arse.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWW - scoring 2,3,8,5

GOAL TRENDS - overs the call so far.

STREAKS - 4 match winning streak.

AWAY TEAM - CHELSEA

RECENT AWAY FORM - DW - draw v Stoke.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWWW - last 3 matches over 2.5 goals and Chelsea conceded in each match.

GOAL TRENDS - see above.Chelsea have scored 2-3-2 in their last 3

STREAKS - 3 match winning streak.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
POSITIVES - -historically the trend has been towards both teams scoring at least one goal which could push us up to over 2.5 goals. Man Utd are unlikely to lose at home this season. All wins and one score draw at home last season.
NEGATIVES - post transfer and we already have relative confidence in the United signings and their gelling .Chelsea have made some high profile signings in Mata, Lukake, Meireles, Luiz, and Arse-Banjo Torres. Now if they all play, and gel, then we may see a different Chelsea side ( of course!) with potential for a more positive result.



as above
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 3rd

HOME TEAM - Copenhagen

RECENT HOME FORM - WWW - scoring 2 in each of those matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWWWWWW - sole draw was a 2-2 when Copenhagen were 2-1 up.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home.Copenhagen have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.

STREAKS - 6 match winning streak / 8 without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - AAB

RECENT AWAY FORM - DDDW - draws included 2-2 and 3-3 draws so AAB look to have a fighting spirit away.AAB should have won both matches that were score draws were it not for very late ( and in one instance a 93rd minute) equaliser.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWWDWDWL - good enough recent form with only 1 loss.

GOAL TRENDS - 75% overs overall home and away. 6/8 matches over 2.5 goals this season.

STREAKS - 4 away without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
POSITIVE - Copenhagen have scored 2 minimum in all bar 1 match I think this season.They have won all bar one this season and scored 2 minimum in all home matches. Ultra reliable so we would hope.
The general consensus would seem to be over 2.5 goals.

6pm - Galatasaray v Samsunspor - 1.4 home - not the force of old but strong favs today.
615pm -
Feirense v Porto - 1.25 away - there seems to be no let up despite the absence of Falcao for Porto.
These 2 have not met since 2002 so head to heads irrelevant.
DLDW for Feirense so far and 2 0-0's at home for Feriense already offer the idea of backing Porto and the 0-0 as an insurance bet? Porto are 4/4 this season. Porto have scored 1-3-5-3 this season - scoring 1-5 away from home in 2 matches.
Despite the Falcao sale, Porto look as full of goals as ever and reliables.
630pm -
Olympiakos v Xanthi - 1.2 home
06.02.2011 D1 Olympiakos Pireus 1-0 SKODA Xanthi
16.10.2010 D1 SKODA Xanthi 0-3 Olympiakos Pireus
28.03.2010 D1 Olympiakos Pireus 0-0 SKODA Xanthi
05.12.2009 D1 SKODA Xanthi 0-1 Olympiakos Pireus
10.01.2009 D1 Olympiakos Pireus 2-1 SKODA Xanthi
Generally a typically greek affair bar the 0-3 away win for Oly. Seems an Oly win or a 0-0. Obviously then back 0-0 and match odds for a valueless but looks-strong bet.
Oly yet to play this season and Xanthi lost 1-0 away to PAOK.
Oly won all home matches last season. Seems worse case will be a 1-0 win based on that. I am not discounting another 3-0 but with Oly yet to play this season, perhaps a 0-0 back initially for trading purposes and an eventual Oly win? back Oly at half time if still 0-0?
7pm - Levante v Real Madrid - 1.25 away - -Barca win means Real must return the favour away from home in a match they are expected to win.
19.02.2011 D1 Real Madrid 2-0 Levante UD
06.01.2011 Cup Levante UD 2-0 Real Madrid
22.12.2010 Cup Real Madrid 8-0 Levante UD
25.09.2010 D1 Levante UD 0-0 Real Madrid
Coupon buster last time away at Levante with a 0-0. Real cannot afford another dropped 2 points. Cup match to be ignored form wise.
Real have scored 6 and 4 so far this season and this is the killer strike for them, with Barca dropping 2 points with their away draw v Sociedad.
A win for Real today puts them 2 points ahead of Barca and so early in the season. This could literally be a season turning match already for real Madrid and The " Special" One would be very disappointed were he to let this chance slip.
I would go with madrid here based on the " teams that must win usually do win" maxim. They have been scoring bucket loads this season and although Levante have proven tough nuts to crack, this new Real could, like Barca yesterday, post some ridiculous scoreline.
815pm - Benfica v Academica - 1.22 home - I must admit that Benfica looked superb against United mid week . Very attack minded and some very impressive players.
WW at home for Benfica, 2-1 and 3-1 . Overall DWWW.

Head to heads point to a tight match , but performance mid week v United points to attacking flare and goals.

GAELIC
I no longer live in Ireland but am well aware that it is All Ireland day and Dublin v Kerry who return to the Final 1.74 favourites. Likely the favourites are worth laying here for any traders in what is likely to be a tight match. I am sure Dublin will lead at some stage.

340 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Jeannie Galloway, 4/1 Amitola, 6/1 Spinatrix, 8/1 Lady Paris, 14/1 Red Roar, 14/1 Ursula.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weight Amitola looks to be coming back to her best but JEANNIE GALLOWAY may be able to gain compensation for her near miss against stable-companion Coolminx in Friday's Ayr Bronze Cup.[Adrian Cook]

Now 6 horses - need to check if 3 places as this then becomes a very good probability race.

440 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Jonny Delta, 5/1 Jeu De Vivre, 6/1 Think Its All Over, 7/1 Getabuzz, 10/1 Bradbury, 10/1 Comedy Act, 10/1 Royal Swain, 14/1 Goldenveil, 33/1 Lochiel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Likely there is plenty more to come from JONNY DELTA (nap) when the emphasis is on stamina and he can add to his last-time-out success at Musselburgh. The 3yos Getabuzz and Jeu De Vivre are feared most.[Adrian Cook]

Strong market leader and price gapper retains price gap in live betting market - Johnston Jeu de vivre for each way thievery?

200 PLUMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Bathwick Scanno, 7/2 Alfraamsey, 11/2 Sinadinou, 8/1 Colebrooke, 8/1 Daddyow, 12/1 Kissing Clara, 14/1 Reach Out, 16/1 Black Dragon, 25/1 King Of Cassis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BATHWICK SCANNO, runner-up on both hurdles starts, looks capable of going one better. Alfraamsey should be on the premises again, while Sinadinou is worth another chance to build on his hurdling debut promise.[Steve Boow]

3 under 10/1 here and Bathwick could be agood call to place again, having done so twice.






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