back-lay-trade-horses-football: 15/9

Sally Friday this evening looks solid to place but I cannot tell the likely price. Celtic are worth opposing with their away record in Europe. Stoke's defence could help the under 3.5 goals but I always prefer trading these markets rather than as an outright bet.

*****805pm - Atl Madrid v Celtic - 1.43 home - back Madrid in the match odds at 1.43. they have failed to score so far in the domestic league ( only 2 matches old) and the hope is they find Celtic weaker than the usual domestic competition.*****

Real Madrid won. Farraaj won in the only horse race of interest.
1230pm - Tanjong Pagar Utd v Home Utd - 1.11 away - I think we should start prioritising and the Singapore league should come at the end of the list as regards consistency. This is bottom v top.

27.05.2011	D1	Home United	3-1	Tanjong Pagar Utd
18.03.2011	D1	Tanjong Pagar Utd	0-6	Home United

Comprehensive 2011 wins already for Home United, scoring 9.
12th ( bottom) v 1st.
10 losses, 1 draw , 1 win, in last 12 matches in all competitions. Win was a 0-1 v Young Lions and came with an 89th minute goal v 10 men.
Tanjong have failed to score in 6 of their last 7 matches. 2 recent 1-0 losses v 1st and 2nd ( playing 3rd today) might lead us to think that the 1.11 quote does not indicate the usual 5/6 goal haul we should expect. Look to an early tightness in the match which might help 0-0 backers for 20-25 minutes.
The first goal conceded by tanjong in their last 6 matches has come in the following minutes -
70th - no goal conceded - 53rd - 85th - 27th - 27th. Could be tough to break down up to the first half hour? In the 2 head to heads in 2011, tanjong scored first in the most recent, and conceded in the 12th minute in the previous match. Still, promise as regards a clean sheet up to the half hour mark?
Home have won 4 and lost 2 of their last 7 league matches, They have recently beaten 6th, 10th , 11th away, scoring 3-4-5 goals.
Should be an away win with the 1st goal possibly coming after the 25 minute mark? Home have a 1game/2game advantage over 1st and 2nd so motivation to win here.

3pm - Mazeikiai v Ekranas - 1.24 away

19.06.2011	D1	FK Ekranas	5-0	FK Mazeikiai
10.04.2011	D1	FK Mazeikiai	1-2	FK Ekranas
18.09.2010	D1	FK Mazeikiai	0-3	FK Ekranas
12.06.2010	D1	FK Ekranas	5-0	FK Mazeikiai
03.04.2010	D1	FK Mazeikiai	0-2	FK Ekranas

lithuanian league, and like Singapore, if there are more familiar teams about, then focus on them rather than these less than consistent leagues. head to heads clearly indicate the potential of a win to nil, with Maze only scoring 1 in their last 5 H2H.
Maze have lost 5 of their last 6.
ekranas have won their last 3, against 6th, 10th and 11th ( and are playing 9th today)
They have scored 2-5-3 BUT have conceded 1 in each of those matches. So be careful with score to nil today.
I do not think these leagues merit studious form study so I will take snapshots like this which hints that the odds are right. Away scorelines are tighter than the 2 5-0 home wins in the head to heads so look to 1-2, 0-2, 0-3 -that kind of scoreline.
6pm - Dinamo Kiev v Stoke - 1.85 home- as ever in the Europa league form angles are very tough but my initial instinct was that this price was very dismissive of an improving and tough to beat ( domestically) Stoke. Crouch out but this is all about defense and I hope Stoke can remain as dogged as they were v Liverpool. we might, then , get leverage out of a 0-0 back to lay trade early on ( 20 minutes?) or a speculative lay of Kiev? BUT when I say Stoke to keep it tight, I am not discounting an eventual breakthrough. Under 2.5 goals? Under 3.5 goals safer?
6pm - Lazio v FC Vaslui - 1.44 home - new signings both scored for Lazio but they let a 0-2 away lead at AC Milan go at the weekend ( changes at half time?) Seria A is stronger than the Romanian league and we have to hope lazio are fired up, and their new signings deliver on the European stage. ( Plzen , in the Czech league, are good examples though that we cannot readily dismiss teams we know little about!)
6pm - PSV v Legia Warsaw - 1.44 home - both sides have only lost 2 of their last 12 matches. Another toughie to call as we cannot weigh up which of the Dutch or Polish leagues are the stronger. Legia scored 2 and 3 home and away against Spartak Moscow which is a good sign, and might be hard to beat this evening. Again though, I cannot get an angle in at all.
6pm - Shamrock Rovers v Rubin Kazan - 1.56 away - the further Shamrock progress the better will be the opponents. Rubin have only scored 1 in each of their last 7 matches and are likely, with their European experience, to be too canny for Shamrock Rovers who conceded first at home v Partizan and Copenhagen. A hint that defence was the key to these matches, and it maky take Rubin a while to break them, but I expect Rubin to be the first scorers.
615pm - KR Reykjavik v Grindavik - 1.34 home - on soccerstats.com so worth a look.
HEAD TO HEADS

26.06.2011	D1	UMF Grindavik	0-3	KR Reykjavik
19.09.2010	D1	UMF Grindavik	3-3	KR Reykjavik
04.07.2010	D1	KR Reykjavik	1-0	UMF Grindavik
25.06.2009	D1	KR Reykjavik	2-0	UMF Grindavik
14.05.2009	D1	UMF Grindavik	0-4	KR Reykjavik

Rey were 2-0 up in the 3-3 draw match and that looks anomolous.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 9th.

HOME TEAM - REYKJAVIK

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDWWDDW - unbeaten at home. Draws, all score draws, against 1st, 4th, 5th, 7th. Have won all matches against bottom 5.( which includes Grindavik who they play today.)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWWWDDWL - only 1 loss this season away to 3rd in the league. Home and away against bottom 5, they have won all 9 matches played ( 10th match played today.), scoring 4 once, 3 4 times, and 2 4 times. Consistently scoring against bottom sides such as today's.

GOAL TRENDS - 55% overs at home. Scored in all matches at home.2.11 scored, 1 conceded on average - 8 of last 11 matches all over 2.5 goals. Have scored in all matches this season.

STREAKS - 9 at home without defeat

AWAY TEAM - Grindavik

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLDLLDDWD - like reykjavik, they like draws.2 wins away v 6th and 7th, yet to play 1st and 2nd away. Lost 7-2 v 3rd away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDWLDDWDDD - a draw problem of late. 2 were 0-0 draws, albeit against 10th and 12th.

GOAL TRENDS - 56% overs away from home but only 3 overs matches in last 9 , thanks to 1-1 draws mostly.

STREAKS - no defeat in 4 away ( 3 were draws) and in 6 overall v 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 12th. Top 3 conspicuous by their absence.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - recent good form for the away side has come against those outside the top 3. Historically they have struggled away to top sides. 5 draws in last 6 a concern too, but note the league positions of teams they played . Only 1 loss all season for Reykjavik. They prefer playing Grindavik away ( scoring 3 last twice) and at home, it is tighter ( 1-0 and 2-0 wins). The draws are a worry here

805pm - AZ Alkmaar v Malmo FF - 1.37 home - 4 matches with 4 clean sheets ( 3 domestic wins and one EL win) sees AZ in good shape .Malmo have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 domestically. Again difficult to evaluate teams' form from different leagues but presently confidence should be with the home side who are scoring 3+ goals with consistency.
805pm - Atl Madrid v Celtic - 1.43 home - Celtic only playing because Sion fielded an illegible player. Will they take advantage of this life line or are La liga teams ( like top premiership teams) most likely to show the gulf in class with an easy win?
Falcao from Porto ( £40 mil) the key signing for Madrid - Forlan, Aguero and De Gea out . All key positions.
Celtic unlikely to win. Trust this new look forward line for Madrid? remember we are in a post transfer window and need to see teams and their new signings gel ( or not!!).

710 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sally Friday, 5/1 Lady Sefton, 6/1 Passion Play, 10/1 Fairest Isle, 10/1 Graceful Act, 16/1 Cardi King, 16/1 Samanda, 16/1 Ultimate Best, 20/1 Magic Minstrel, 40/1 Ballina Blue, 50/1 Royal Alcor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SALLY FRIDAY has been costly to follow but it's hard to see her losing this one. Lady Sefton is the potential fly in the ointment, and the betting should tell us more.[Stuart Redding]

42322 for for Sally Friday and it seems only a matter of time until the win. And a hope that the horse continues to place at least.

225 LISTOWEL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sunset Stanza, 5/1 Loch Ard, 13/2 Mafi, 8/1 Bancnuanaheireann, 10/1 Liz Bailey, 12/1 Baby Jock, 12/1 Ridayef, 16/1 Ring Them Bells, 20/1 Eastern Rules, 20/1 Star Prospect, 20/1 Wellworthnaming, 25/1 Salsa Pepper, 33/1 Ennis Diamond, 33/1 Esytopolishadimond, 33/1 The Fourth Of May.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dermot Weld and Pat Smullen won the first race here on Monday and Tuesday and the pair hold solid claims of a repeat bid with Killarney runner-up SUNSET STANZA. Loch Ard hinted ability in two runs last season and looks the most obvious threat while Baby Jock might be capable of more also on his return and would be of interest if the market spoke in his favour. [Brian Fleming]

Weld/Smullen Sunset is tempting but the ground is soft/heavy.

310 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Garrarufa, 11/2 Doctor Banner, 7/1 Jaci Uzzi, 9/1 Mount St Mistress, 12/1 Alexandra Palace, 12/1 Manderston, 14/1 Nude, 14/1 The Mighty Lohan, 16/1 Coach Montana, 16/1 Fen Flyer, 16/1 Recway Striker.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GARRARUFA holds the key and a reproduction of his much-improved Leicester form last week will make him very hard to beat. Doctor Banner has place prospects at least and The Mighty Lohan is one of a handful dropped markedly in class on handicap debut who needs to be watched for market support. [Frank Carter]

No doubting this is a price gapper, but I doubt a 2 year old class 6 seller is the type of a race which will make us rich!

SHORTLIST