***** 440 AYR - Dare to dance to place only**** 7 runners - 3 places - price gapper. Yes questionable ground but the horse should be able to handle it. Please use betfair SP if market illiquid.
St Gallen 3-0 up and then a ropey few minutes saw the final score at 3-2, but they prevailed as did Etoile, and Sparta.
445pm - Levadia Tallinn v Viljandi - 1.12 home
| 13.08.2011 | D1 | FC Viljandi | 0-0 | Levadia Tallinn | |
| 14.06.2011 | D1 | Levadia Tallinn | 2-1 | FC Viljandi | |
| 22.03.2011 | D1 | FC Viljandi | 0-1 | Levadia Tallinn | |
| 30.10.2010 | D1 | Tulevik Viljandi | 0-1 | Levadia Tallinn | |
| 10.07.2010 | D1 | Levadia Tallinn | 3-0 | Tulevik Viljandi | |
| 08.05.2010 | D1 | Tulevik Viljandi | 0-1 | Levadia Tallinn |
To be fair though, at home, Levadia have scored 3 and 2 in their last 2 head to heads.
Only 2 losses in 46 home league matches for Levadia ! Outstanding.
Recent home form - WWDWWDLDWD - ropey recent home form sees only 1 win in last 5 matches.4 of those 5 matches under 2.5 goals and in the middle a whopping 6-0 home win v 10th ( of 10) - they are playing 8th today.
WLDWDWWWDL - inconsistent - 3 wins were 3-0, 6-0, 7-0, the latter against the same side ( bottom of league)
LWLLWLWLL for Vijandi recently - no draw in a while. Recent losses against 2nd and 3rd, 5-0 and 2-1 ( playing 4th today)
LLDWLLLLL recently , conceding 3-3-5-2-3 in those losses.
Head to heads point to a lay of Levadia Tallin ( let's face it we lose little. ) The odds could drift after a while at 0-0. BAck 0-0 too at likely big odds. Don't use full stakes of course as this is highly speculative, backing 0-0 for a 1.12 shot and a team conceding 3-3-5-2-3 last 5. I base the speculative bets on head to heads and inconsitent recent home form for Levadia.
Not a match to get carried away with.
5pm - CSKA Moscow v Inter - 2.66 home - new manager Claudio Ranieri for Inter Milan saw a win v Bologna at the weekend. Snjeider is out this evening - a huge miss. CSKA play on an artificial pitch which they will be used to. Inter will want to banish the poor run of their poor season start manager.
745pm - B Munich v Man City - 1.97 home -City still inexperienced in Europe despite having some squad members experienced. Bayern Munich at home likely to be tough cookies. Standout players this evening seem to be the forward lines of both sides - Aguero, Dzecko,Silva, Nasri Gomez, Ribery, Robben. But this is the Champions League and a must not lose for both sides.
745pm - Brighton v C Palace - 1.72 home
HEAD TO HEADS - no recent head to heads of interest
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 12th after 8 matches.
HOME TEAM - Brighton
RECENT HOME FORM - WDWD - no concerns with better league at home just yet - scoring 2-2-2-3 - draws against Blackpool and Leeds - in one match they were 2-0 up and let it slip, in the other 2-0 down and fought back. Blackpool and Leeds are decent Championship pedigree sides so these draws offer a hint that Brighton at home might get something from tonight's match.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWWLD - winning streak ended last 2 matches with 1-0 loss against Leicester and 3-3 draw with Leeds. Not really surprises these results and again some confidence from a tight match against Foxes money men.
GOAL TRENDS - 3/4 home matches over 2.5 goals, the exception a 2-0 win which saw 2nd goal in 64 th minute so a good overs trade. Brighton have conceded in 3/4 home matches this season. Only 1 over 2,5 goals match in last 4.
STREAKS - 4 at home without defeat, 2 overall without a win.
AWAY TEAM - Palace
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLL - the win was 0-1 and an own goal so hardly awe inspiring.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWWDLLL - Wins against Burnley, Coventry and Hull. Recent losses v Leeds, Middlesbrough and Doncaster. The last 2 losses both 1-0 and both via 65th minute goals. A hint that Palace can be defensively tight?
GOAL TRENDS - only 3 of 8 matches this season over 2.5 goals ( 2 were away from home!) Only 1 of the last 5 matches over 2. 5 goals. Have failed to score in the last 2 matches.
STREAKS - no draw in 4 away, no win in 2 away.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no recent head to heads always a concern as the outsiders may simply enjoy playing against the formation of the favs. We just don't know ( this is also a problem in Champions League matches too when 2 teams are meeting for the first time).
Brighton have scored 2-2-2-3 at home this season and 3/4 matches at home over 2.5 goals. The congruency between the teams can be seen in recent matches. Only 1 of Brighton's last 4 matches over 2.5 goals and only 1 of Palace's last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Palace have failed to score in last 2 matches.
Will Brighton score 2 again at home? The recent form points to unders though and a chance that Palace can keep it tight ( 2 recent 1-0 losses came with a 65th minute goal)
A match pulling us in different directions alas.
Brighton have scored 2-2-2-3 at home this season and 3/4 matches at home over 2.5 goals. The congruency between the teams can be seen in recent matches. Only 1 of Brighton's last 4 matches over 2.5 goals and only 1 of Palace's last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Palace have failed to score in last 2 matches.
Will Brighton score 2 again at home? The recent form points to unders though and a chance that Palace can keep it tight ( 2 recent 1-0 losses came with a 65th minute goal)
A match pulling us in different directions alas.
745pm - Lyon v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.4 home - odds point to home win, but not a match I have an angle into.
745pm - Man Utd v FC Basel - 1.21 home - Rooney and Hernandez out and Shrek really is a huge miss, so prolific has he been. Alternatives? Welbeck? Still injured. Michael Owen? Hardly inspiring. Berbatov? lacking competitive matches. The 1.21 could be layable early on, as could the 0-0 if we think this United attack is less than inspiring. Expect eventual breakthrough goal unless Berba clicks.Basel should not score hence the 0-0 .Team news confirmation for United advisable as I am going only by the Racing Post probable teams.
745pm - Otelul Galati v Benfica - 1.55 away - I was mightily impressed with Benfica against Man Utd. That was at home though. They are facing the newcomers and minnows . This has away win stamped all over it if Benfica are as good as they were against United and in their 2-2 draw with Porto recently. Possibility of overs trade here too .
745pm - Rangers v Kilmarnock - 1.24 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 15.05.2011 | PR | Kilmarnock FC | 1-5 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 13.03.2011 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 2-1 | Kilmarnock FC | |
| 10.01.2011 | Cup | Glasgow Rangers | 3-0 | Kilmarnock FC | |
| 20.11.2010 | PR | Kilmarnock FC | 2-3 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 27.10.2010 | LC | Kilmarnock FC | 0-2 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 14.08.2010 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 2-1 | Kilmarnock FC |
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 7th after 8 matches.
HOME TEAM - Rangers
RECENT HOME FORM - DWW - draw 1-1 v Hearts, beat Aberdeen 2-0 and beat Celtic 4-2. Interestingly Rangers have scored in the 90th minute in last 2 matches.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWWWWW - and that victory over Celtic the icing on the cake.
GOAL TRENDS - average 2.33 scored aand 1 conceded at home albeit only 3 matches.Have kept a clean sheet in 6 of last 7 matches ( celtic scored 2)
STREAKS - 7 match winning streak , 8 without defeat, 6/7 matches without conceding.
AWAY TEAM - KILMARNOCK
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDL - yet to meet old Firm and yet to win away as well. - all away matches over 1.5 goals. Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all away matches.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWDLWDL - 2 wins at home, most recent v Dunfermline who Rangers beat 0-4 away.
GOAL TRENDS - 5 of last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 6/8 matches this season.
STREAKS - no win in 4 away
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - "after the Lord Mayor's show for Rangers in the Cup after the emotional 4-2 home win v Celtic. They should be over this now and it all points, rather obviously, to a home win. The possibility of overs is clear for a Kilmarnock side who have conceded in all away matches and whose last 4 matches overall have been over 2.5 goals. Yes, Rangers have kept a clean sheet in 6 of last 7 matches and a 2-0 win would kill an overs trade ( unless the 2nd goal was scored early enough.
745pm - Real Madrid v Ajax - 1.22 home - the goals returned at the weekend for Real at home. Note they did concede first! Ajax are very capable goalscorers domestically and with Carvalho out, they could contribute.
745pm - West Ham v Ipswich - 1.57 home
I like following West Ham this season. They seem easy enough to read
HEAD TO HEADS
| 31.07.2010 | CF | Ipswich Town | 0-1 | West Ham | |
| 04.08.2008 | CF | Ipswich Town | 3-5 | West Ham |
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 13th
HOME TEAM West 'Am
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWW - very much a Jekyll and Hyde side home and away. Struggling generally at home.0-1 unlucky loss to Cardiff with v late goal. 2-2 draw with Leeds saw them 1-0 and 2-1 up.4-3 v Pompey saw West Ham come from 0-1 down to lead 2-1 and 4-2 until a v late 90th minute goal. Last win v Peterboro saw an 11th minute penalty as the sole goal and win.
Not convincing yet. In 3 out of 4 home matches, West Ham have conceded a 90th minute goal.
Not convincing yet. In 3 out of 4 home matches, West Ham have conceded a 90th minute goal.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWDWWDW - WWD sequences, if upheld, would see another win here. Unbeaten in 7.
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home albeit only 4 matches to go by. Last 2 matches under 2.5 goals and only 1 goal scored throughout. West Ham have failed to score in only 2 matches this season.
STREAKS - unbeaten in 7, no goal conceded in 2 , no defeat in 3 at home.
AWAY TEAM - IPSWICH
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLD - 3-0 v Bristol City, 7-1 loss to Peterborough, 2-0 loss to Balckpool and 0-0 v Boro.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLLWLWD - unbeaten in 3 of last 4 in stark contrast to 3 losses in first 4 matches of the season.Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 matches but have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches too!
GOAL TRENDS - no goal scored in 2 away, no goal conceded in 2 overall, no win in 3 away.
STREAKS - see goal trends
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no head to heads of relevance again . West Ham have been leading in their last 3 home matches at some stage during the match. How important was the near shut out by Peterboro last match. An 11th minute penalty the only goal. And remember Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 matches . Hammers have only scored 1 goal - infact there has been only 1 goal - in their last 2 matches.
All of this points to an unders trade initially doesn't it, and the possibility for a 0-0 back to lay trade.
1.57 home relates that the market makers expect West Ham to win. perhaps back West Ham at 1.57 ( or wait a few minutes for the odds to rise) BUT back 0-0 insurance bet pre match incase Ipswich continue their recent defensive displays.
All of this points to an unders trade initially doesn't it, and the possibility for a 0-0 back to lay trade.
1.57 home relates that the market makers expect West Ham to win. perhaps back West Ham at 1.57 ( or wait a few minutes for the odds to rise) BUT back 0-0 insurance bet pre match incase Ipswich continue their recent defensive displays.
240 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mistress Of Rome, 3/1 Bubbly Bounty, 7/1 Gibraltar Road, 10/1 Gone By Sunrise, 14/1 Ballroom Blitz, 14/1 Johnson´s Cat, 50/1 Never In.
Fav has 4 runs which is important experience in a maiden. We are likely to get good odds thanks to the ground and only 2 places.
440 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dare To Dance, 6/1 Calaf, 8/1 Mirrored, 8/1 Tres Coronas, 10/1 Waldvogel, 12/1 Nazreef, 25/1 Full Toss, 25/1 Medicinal Compound.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: These conditions will suit DARE TO DANCE (nap) who has been rerouted here after conditions were deemed too quick in Saturday's Cambridgeshire for which he had been ante-post favourite for some time. Tres Coronas and Calaf can follow him home.[Adrian Cook]
Big price gapper and quite a reputation. Ideal place race - 8 runners, 3 places - now 7 runners and still 3 places and around 1.2 as I write really makes Dare enticing.
Soft ground at Chepstow.
320 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Manger Hanagment, 6/4 Elsafeer, 5/1 Shifting Gold, 14/1 Pompan, 50/1 Jays Girl, 50/1 Shouldavboughtgold, 100/1 Starbird, 100/1 Victory Rock.
Winning run could be threatened for Manger making Elsafeer a good place prospect. Each way alternative? Shifting gold
520 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Lucky Lukey, 11/2 Clueless, 11/2 Rannoch Moor, 7/1 Phoenix Lady, 10/1 Railway Park, 10/1 Seven Stars, 16/1 Acol, 16/1 Mansolias, 20/1 Crackerjac Boy, 20/1 Sleep In First, 25/1 Chargen, 33/1 Kayf Commander.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Rannoch Moor's run under a penalty at Worcester on Friday rather tempers confidence and it's not hard to prefer LUCKY LUKEY (nap), who has found some form for his new yard and whose Hereford win last month has worked out well.[Emily Weber]
7/4 - - - 9/2 price gapper this Lucky Lukey albeit in a conditional handicap hurdle.
SHORTLIST
745pm - Man Utd v FC Basel - 1.21 home - eventual win I suspect and team news will increase/temper enthusiasm with Shrek and Hernandez out.
745pm - Rangers v Kilmarnock - 1.24 home - if Kilmarnock away are DLDL and have not yet met the old Firm, then I suspect they are vulnerable to a team keeping 6 clean sheets in their last 7 matches.745pm - Real Madrid v Ajax - 1.22 home - questionable reliability as betting mediums but at home they are scoring as is that massive winker Ronaldo. Dutch teams are vulnerable to teams from better leagues.
440 AYR - ideal race - 7 runners - 3 places - price gapper remains.
320 SEDGEFIELD - Elsafeer around 1.17 to place and Shifting gold a more speculative shot.
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