back-lay-trade-horses-football: 14/9

For me Albirex Nigaata have an excellent chance if they bring their scoring boots again. real Madrid face a Zagreb side who should struggle against this level of opponent. Man Utd away in Europe - 1-0 sScholes 65th minute winner used to be the norm, but the ginger genius is out. Still they should not lose against Benfica. Benfica are infact layable here at 4.3.
Man City , in the form they have been in recently, should win with ease this evening at home, but Napoli, as the Italian representatives, must be respected as much for their defensive tendencies as anything else.
The 230 Sandown is a 4 horse race for 2 places, albeit a 20/1 outsider should make this a 3 horse race for 2 places. Farraaj has as good a chance as the 3 most likely to place.

***** 745pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Real madrid - back real at 1.26***** Special One too canny ?
Remember, as with Barca twice, and PSV, that trading must be a consideration when we have the facility to lock in profit in play. barca 2-0 up, available to lay off your stake, PSV 2-0 up , available to lay off your stake, and Barca 2-1 up in the last half hour, available to lay off your stake.

A winning trade but a losing bet. Lessons learned from PSV and Barca previously could have ensured a profit with laying Barca off at 2-1 up for as long as half an hour of the 2nd half.

1230pm - Balestier Khalsa v Singapore Armed Forces - 1.2 away
HEAD TO HEADS

01.06.2011	D1	Singapore Armed Forces	1-0	Balestier Khalsa
17.03.2011	D1	Balestier Khalsa	0-2	Singapore Armed Forces
06.08.2010	D1	Singapore Armed Forces	0-2	Balestier Khalsa
21.05.2010	D1	Balestier Khalsa	1-1	Singapore Armed Forces
11.02.2010	D1	Singapore Armed Forces	2-1	Balestier Khalsa

A 1-0 last time out head to head as recently as June AT HOME, and they are 1.2 away today - I will curtail my research as this is too tight a scoreline to be considering a 1.2 shot. And in August 2010, SAF lost at home to Balestier.

1230pm - Young Lions v Albirex Niigata (S) - 1.27 away
HEAD TO HEADS

31.05.2011	D1	Albirex Niigata (S)	4-2	Young Lions
26.03.2011	D1	Young Lions	0-5	Albirex Niigata (S)
15.10.2010	Cup	Albirex Niigata (S)	0-0	Young Lions
12.10.2010	D1	Albirex Niigata (S)	1-1	Young Lions
09.10.2010	Cup	Young Lions	1-0	Albirex Niigata (S)
25.06.2010	D1	Young Lions	1-1	Albirex Niigata (S)

Here we have a 1.27 quote scoring like a 1.27 quote in their last 2 head to heads - 9 goals compared to SAF scraping a win in their most recent head to head.

LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 3rd - Albirex have played one more than 1st and 2nd so need to win here and hope they slip up, Will go provisionally top with a win.

HOME TEAM - young Lions

RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLWLLWDL - wins against 8th and 10th and 1-1 draw with 5th ( albeit 88th minute equaliser!)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWLDLL - wins v 5th, 11th, 8th. REcent losses v 4th, 6th, 7th and playing 3rd today.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 8 losses, 2 draws, 2 clean sheets0.92 scored, 1.62 conceded at home on average.

STREAKS - 4 without a win

AWAY TEAM - Albirex

RECENT AWAY FORM -WLWLWWW - losses v 4th and 6th - have scored 5-7-4 in last 3 away wins.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWWW - loss v SAF

GOAL TRENDS - 8 wins, 5 losses, no draws, 4 clean sheets, 2.54 scored, 1.08 conceded on average away from home.

STREAKS - 10 without a loss IN ALL COMPETITIONS, 6 without a loss IN ALL COMPETITIONS away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Albirex really are firing on all cylinders at home, and in stark contrast with SAF, look a team worth backing away from home in current goalscoring form.

2pm - Brabrand v SonderjyskE - 1.22 away - D3W v Division 1 in the Danish Cup. Danish Cups, as far as I have noticed, tend to be goal laden affairs. A nice gap in leagues here too augurs well for Sonder backers.
6pm - Vejle BK Kolding v Blokhus - 1.24 home - Danish 2nd division and Monday showed that delving so low in Scandinavia is not as reliable as looking at , say a Man Utd, or Man city match,
745pm - Benfica v Man Utd - 1.91 away - how reliable are Utd at the moment!! Alas no Scholes this time to get a 1-0 away goal in Europe!! 11 wins in last 15 away includes 2 defeats to Barca ( one in the final last time ), defeat to Bayern, and draw with Marseille ( albeit a win was not required).
6 1-0 scorelines for United show 1) defensive qualities ( infact they have not conceded in last 6 away Champions league matches prior to the Final) and 2) experience .
2-4-1-2-3 scored by Benfica at home since 2010 in the Champions League, beating Hapoel, Lyon, Trab and Twente, and losing to Schalke. When they have been restricted goalswise, they tend to lose, and United's nouse should ensure Benfica are restricted this evening. Another tight affair, or has the fact United have score 13 in their last 2 Premiership matches a sign they can avoid the traditional 0-1 away win and go a bit more gung ho?
745pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Real Madrid - 1.25 away - this could be a win to nil for Real madrid given their defensive exploits of late under the Special One. Zagreb are so strong at home domestically . madrid's last 6 away matches in the Champions League read as WDWDWD but they have played the likes of Milan, Barcelona, Lyon. Zagreb have won their last 3 encounters at home in Europe , albeit against Neftci, HJK, and Malmo, not quite in the same ballpark as Real. Expect a 2/3 goal win to nil here.
745pm - Inter v Trabzonspor - 1.43 home - 7 match winning streak in Europe, taking notable scalps Barca, Chelsea, Spurs, ended with defeats by Bayern and Schalke last 2 matches for Inter.
Trab have drawn their last 3 league matches, scoring only 2 and lost 2-0 at Benfica.
This is a return after a 6 year absence into this competition, and lack of competitive play at this level might find them out this afternoon.

745pm - Man City v Napoli - 1.4 home - a collector's item, a striker worth the money! Aguero a class apart in this set up and Napoli seem to have no chance. But Italian defenses can be made of sturdy stuff.
Aguero has scored 6, and Dzeko has scored 6 in only 4 games. Confidence is high . 3-1 away win for Napoli so far this season v Cesena tells us little. Napoli last season conceded 3-3-3-2 against top 5 they played away from home. A signal they are not quite there yet as far as meeting the stronger teams. and if this carries over today, this will be an easy assignment for City and 2 red hot strikers.

200 LISTOWEL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Foot Soldier, 11/4 Leatherwood, 9/2 Custom Cut, 11/2 Highwater Express, 10/1 Call Me Bubbles, 10/1 Danequest, 33/1 Booster Rocket, 50/1 John Of Ross, 50/1 Miami Heat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If FOOT SOLDIER can produce an effort more in keeping with the second of his three starts there is a good chance that he will reverse Gowran form with Leatherwood. There could be plenty of improvement to come from Highwater Express. [Alan Sweetman]

8 runners, 3 places and Foot soldier capable of placing, but a race full of 2 year olds in soft ground and Fort Sam Houston showed yesterday that you can have the form in the book but an inability to handle conditions underfoot can be detrimental.

515 LISTOWEL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Duc De Savoie, 4/1 Leceile, 6/1 Code Of The West, 8/1 Noras Fancy, 8/1 Parabolica, 16/1 I´lltelimar King, 25/1 De Bartishell, 25/1 Littletown Lass, 33/1 Delia´s Girl, 33/1 Masterofthebree, 33/1 Mr Lomas, 33/1 Senor Tommie, 50/1 Kastani Beach.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A tricky maiden with everything having a question or two against them. DUC DE SAVOIE is worth another chance over hurdles and should go well. The market regarding Code Of The West will be interesting. [Johnny Ward]

Maiden hurdle in bad ground but the betting ( 5 under 25/1 ) hints at a race of few chances., Duc has Ruby Walsh on for Dermot Weld.

330 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Farraaj, 2/1 Kinglet, 11/4 Tell Dad, 20/1 Barolo Top.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A small field and Tell Dad could be dangerous if this becomes a test of speed, but FARRAAJ looks a smart prospect and can add to his Warwick success.[Adrian Cook]

Should be 3 horses for 2 places here and Farraaj has a great probability chance of success,

SHORTLIST