But it is with the sole horse race of interest today that I will go with the one a day. title chasing jockey, 5 horses, 3 places on Betfair, Monsieur Joe has a better chance of placing than not ( of course this does not guarantee he will place, the argument though does look compelling)
*****4pm LEICESTER - back Monsieur Joe to place***** - please use Betfair SP or get any odds better than current illiquid 1.19*****
Sweden won easily enough as per their quote.
12pm - Thailand v Oman - Thailand and Oman cannot be split in the odds but last match, Thais were away to Aussie and scored 1st. It toook a late Australia goal to get the win. If Thailand replicate that on home soil, they might get something here.
Head to heads from 2007 and 2008 not really relevant.
Hard to get a relative angle in as Thailand have been playing Asia/Pacific sides and Oman have been playing Gulf sides.
Thailand have lost to Indonesia, Australia and Leicester City in their last 12 matches.
Oman have lost only once to Belarus in a friendly.
The match odds signal a tight match ( back 0-0 initially?). Last match performance I would have to say favours a speculative punt on Thailand perhaps scoring with home advantage.
2pm - Argentina v Nigeria - 1.41 -after 100,000 in Culcutta, the Argie roadshow continues.
4-1 in June friendly head to head in what looked a fix.
0-1 friendly win against Venezuela in Culcutta.
This match is being held in Dhaka in Bangladesh. Again as a friendly it's wide open. It will be quite a strong argentina side.
Nigeria are fresh from a win against Madagascar 2 days ago, so this might signal a shuffling of their pack?
3pm - Lebanon v U.A.E. - World Cup qualifier and UAE are favourites at 1.46
6-2 home win on 17th July head to head pretty emphatic and signals value in that 1.46 for a UAE side who seem clearly dominant.
Lebanon have lost 10, drawn 1 and won 1 of their last 12.
At home, they have lost 8, drawn 2, won 2. Recent home performance of LDLDLLWL -win 4-0 v Bangladesh in a qualifier. Draws both 1-1 v Vietnam and namibia.
UAE recently lost 2-3, while 0-3 down v Kuwait at home. Only other losses in last 12 against Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia ( 2 1-0 losses amongst those)
Recent form for UAE LLDWWDWL - loss the aforementioned Kuwait match. And incidentally the same Kuwait beat Lebanon 6-0 in a friendly - collateral form?
WWLDDDD away results since 2010 for UAE - 4 match drawing sequence will end against the right opponents. Can we class Lebanon as justifiably weak enough to ensure UAE a win?
Most recent away match saw UAE take a 2 goal lead against India before being pegged back with 2 late goals .
3 Lebanon qualifiers so have have seen 4-0 (win), 2-0 away loss, and 6-0 away loss.
3 UAE qualifiers so far 3-0, 2-2, 2-3
Expectation for goals?
3pm - Malta U21 v Finland U21 - 1.57 away - Euro qualifier. 0-0 in 3rd June head to head.
Only 1 win in last 12 for Malta against Lithuania.
0-0, 1-2 away win, 1-4 home loss for Malta so far in 2011 qualifying.
DLDDL for Malta since 2010.Last 2 draws 1-1's.
Finland Have lost 4 of their last 12.
2 2011 qualifiers 0-0 home draw with Malta and 1-0 win over Slovenia and that was a penalty , i.e. not a goal from open play.
9 losses, 2 draws and a win in last 12 away.Since 2010 LLLD - 2 of the losses were 1-0's, one was a 3-2 and then 0-0 draw. Apart from the anomolous Slovakia 3-2 loss, are Finland having trouble infront of goal?
This could be as tight as the last head to head with Finland maybe eventually edging it. Back Finland with a 0-0 cover?
330pm - Nizhny Novgorod v Torpedo Vladimir - 1.44 home - Russian 2nd division not top priority.
4pm - Czech Republic U21 v Armenia U21 - 1.26 home - last met in 2007 so head to heads irrelevant.
Sole 2011 qualifier saw the Czechs beat Andorra 8-0. Recent corresponding fixture saw Armenia beatn Andorra 1-0 with an 85th minute goal.
3 losses in last 12 for Czechs have come against France, Spain and Belarus. 2 1-0 losses and a 2-0 loss v Spanish.
They beat England on 19th June 1-2 albeit with 84th and 90th+ minute goals.
WDWWWWLDWLLW - last 12 at home - recent losses 0-2 and 0-1 -0-1 was a very late goal - 88th minute.
WWLWWW for Armenia overall since 2010 looks impressive on the surface.Wins against Ireland, Estonia, Montenegro, Andorra, Georgia hard to quantify against the Czech team.
85th minute 0-1 away win against Andorra might expose some competitive weaknesses?
Armenia have won their last 4 away matches against aforementioned teams. You cannot dismiss a side with the winning thread , but their recent dire performance against Andorra might signal a Czech win today.
5pm - Romania U21 v Latvia U21 - 1.4 home - 2009 head to heads largely irrelevant as teams change yearly as previous members get a year older and no longer qualify as under 21!
Only 2 losses in last 12 for Romania 2-1 v England saw a late England winner and 1-0 loss v Turkey.
Slight concern with draw-itis of late.
LWDWDDD - 0-0 and 1-1 draws v Kazakhstan in qualifiers hardly inspires.
But, glass half full, they are not losing.
Solidity at home in last 12, stretching back to 2009.
WWWWWWWDWDWD - 0-0 v England and kazaks and 1-1 v Israel. Solid home form though means they should, at least, not be opposed today.
7 losses, 4 wins and a draw in last 12 for Latvia overall.
Wins against Estonia, Andorra and Lithuania and a club friendly. hardly World footballing superpowers they are beating. 1-0 wins against Andorra and Estonia.
2 Euro qualifier losses in 2011 2-0 and 3-0 against Slovenia and France see Lithuania unable to score.
No draw in last 12 away for Latvia signals a definite strategy away?
Recent away wins against Andorra, Lithuania and FK Jelgava.
Romania seem to have performed better against better teams and that 1.4 seems rather generous.
Lay the draw means home or away side will win, and we would have to plump with the home side and perhaps putting that 3 draw sequence to bed.
515pm - Belarus U21 v Germany U21 - 1.33 away - 1-1 in 2009 head to heads a little irrelevant.
Belarus have won 4 of their last 12 overall, but recent form reads WLLDWWWD - draw with Spain, beat Czech republic, Turkmenistan, Greece
2011 qualifiers include 2-3 win over Greece and 1-1 draw with bosnia
Only one loss at home in last 12 was against Lithuania 0-2 loss.
Germany have only lost 2 of their last 12 - 4-1 v Iceland and 4-2 v Portugal, the latter a friendly so not to be taken at face value.
2 2011 qualifiers have seen 4-1 and 7-0 wins against Cyprus and San Marino.
In 2011 , Germany have scored 0-3-2-2-4-7.
LDDWL since 2010 away from home.Portugal game latest not to be taken on face value - friendly.
530pm - Netherlands U21 v Luxembourg U21 - 1.02 home - Germany under 21's - unbackable and won 7-0. Netherlands first team - unbackable and won 11-0. Netherlands u21 - backable ( but you need to put on £100 to win £2) , and how big will this scoreline be?
Holland have not had a draw in their last 11, Luxembourg have not had a draw in last 12. Pointless really as the draw odds are currently 75 to lay!!
In 2011 Luxembourg have conceded 6-6-4 to Austria, Estonia and Austria again. Recent Dutch pipe opener at home saw they score 5. 9 losses and a win in Luxembourg's last 10 away - but last away was 2009 so largely no up to date results away.
Still recent scorelines indicate Netherlands should replicate the 6 that Austria and Estonia managed?
6pm - Finland v Netherlands - 1.37 away - Euro qualifier here sees the big boys back from an 11-0 win last time out.
September 2010 saw a 2-1 Netherlands home win in head to heads. Finland have only had one draw in their last 12 matches , a 92nd minute Finnish goal securing a 1-1 with Belgium.
DWLWLWW in 2011matches for Finland looks good on the surface but how do we compare Holland with the likes of Turkey B, San Marino, latvia and Moldova?
Netherlands will qualify if they pick up more points that Sweden in San MArino = motivation!
WWWWWWWWDDW in Holland's last 11 matches. They have not lost a match since September 2008.
Recent draws were in friendlies against Uruguay and Brazil - pointless really!
Last 5 away draws all in friendlies for the Dutch and they have won all of their meaningful fixtures.
7pm - Croatia v Israel - 1.41 home - 1-2 Croatia away win in Sept 2010- 0-2 up in that match.
Only one loss in last 12 for Croatia was 1-0 v Georgia
WDWWWW in 2010+ home matches - 0-0 v Greee
Only 1 draw in Israel's last 12 matches. They have beaten latvia twice and Georgia and lost 1-0 at home to greece in recent Euro qualifiers.
Only 3 wins away in last 12 for israel makes them vulnerable.
7pm - FYR Macedonia v Andorra - 1.14 home - 0-2 to Macedonia in October 2010.
Andorra have failed to score in 10 of their last 12 defeats.
Macedonia have lost to Ireland twice and been beaten 1-0 by Russia in Euro qualifiers. They should beat Andorra at home again potentially to nil.
730pm - Latvia v Greece - 1.87 away - wherever you see Greece, you see dour defensive football and accompanying scorelines. 58th minute 1-0 in October 2010 meeting.
Greece are unbeaten in their last 12 matches with the following scorelines -2 0-0's. 4 1-0's, 2 1-1's, 2 2-1's and a 3-1.
The 3-1 was a win over Malta. In 2011, scorelines have been 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 3-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0
A general trend towards tight scorelines and tight defences.
11/12 away matches under 2.5 goals. 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 in 2011 away matches.
Latvia have conceded in 7 of their last 8, and may scupper the 0-1 scoreline as they have conceded more than 1 regularly.
On the face of it, a tight encounter looks on the cards, and early match 0-0, under 2.5 goals has legs I suspect.
730pm - San Marino v Sweden - 1.01 away - you know the drill!!!
730pm - Serbia v Faroe Islands - 1.04 home ( as above!!) 0-3 at Faroes in September 2010 augurs well as the Faroes can be a tough place to play ( ask Italy on 2nd September - 0-1 win)
Serbia's last 3 matches see them scoring only 1, but surely they should gain compensation today against a team with only 1 win, 9 defeats and a 2 draws in their last 12.
Faroes , in euro qualifiers, have lost 2-1, 5-0, 5-1, 4-0 .
745pm - England v Wales - 1.15 home - I would equate this to a Manchester United playing Glasgow rangers. There is chance of an upset but history points to a comfortable night.
0-2 in March 2011 at Wales augurs well for a possible win to nil this evening.
DLDD though for England at home in last 4, albeit 2 friendlies. So enhanced bettors get ready if Wales take the lead ( the Swiss scored 2 in the first match)
Wales have not had a draw in their last 12, losing 9.
Again, away, no draw in last 12, wins over Leichtenstein, Azerbaijan and Denmark and most recently 0-2 v Northern Ireland in the utterly ridiculous Carling Nations Cup.
Sub 1.2 normally equals a 3/4 goal win and potentially to nil, but do pay attention to poor English home form ( nerves? - weight of expectation?)
745pm - Italy v Slovenia - 1.45 home - yes, another dour defensive side, plays today a decent away outfit who I think will be very tough to beat. A win takes the Azzuri through with a feeling Slovenia cannot get 2nd now.
0-1 73rd minute Italian winner in March 2011 head to head.
Italy's only loss in last 12 was a 0-2 away friendly v Ireland.
italy have kept 5 clean sheets in 6 euro qualifiers, conceding only 1 goal.
5-0 and 3-0 home wins in qualifiers for Italy.
Slovenia have failed to score in 5/8 euro qualifiers. looks like another tepid tight match with eventual 1-0 Italy win?
745pm - Poland v Germany - 1.63 away - Germany are already through and teams who do not need to win, rarely do.
815pm - Leiria v Porto - 1.3 away - Portugeuse league match and a general consensus that we back Porto until they lose, unbeaten last season with only 3 draws if memory serves me .
0-2 in March head to head saw 2 2nd half goals, the 2nd a penalty. I would therefore wait and hope it is 0-0 for a while and then back Porto at better odds.
2 2-1 losses so far for Leiria. All bar one of the goals coming in the 2nd half.
9pm - Spain v Liechtenstein - 1.01 home - another chance to test my theory that 5/6/7+ goals should arrive when this is the price. 0-4 in Sept 2010. Hold the front pages - Torres scored!! Wow! Must have been an experience to see this striker score a goal. Spain qualify with a win so expect a strong team out.
4pm LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Monsieur Joe, 3/1 Humidor, 3/1 Pabusar, 13/2 Steps, 10/1 Stone Of Folca, 12/1 Lui Rei, 12/1 Mister Manannan, 25/1 Bathwick Bear.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Humidor is a likely player back down in class and Pabusar brings very strong handicap form but the vote goes to MONSIEUR JOE (nap) who officially has the best chance at the weights and gets the services of title-chasing Silvestre De Sousa on this return from a break (has gone well fresh).[Steve Boow]
Only 5 horses remain and 3 places and original market leader Monsieur Joe remains in the market.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Lebanon v U.A.E. - 1.46 away - Lebanon look opposable on all fronts here?
5pm - Romania U21 v Latvia U21 - 1.4 home -drawitis in last 3 for Romania but at home expectation is generally more for a win than a draw, and they have quite clearly been playing better opponents than Latvia and getting a result.530pm - Netherlands U21 v Luxembourg U21 - 1.02 home - goals bet enhances odds , although being a U21 match, likely lack of liquidity - terrible at the moment, hope of better to come.
6pm - Finland v Netherlands - 1.37 away - Netherlands away have drawn all friendlies but won all meaningful matches. A win and they are safely through this evening. They have not lost a match since August 2008.
7pm - FYR Macedonia v Andorra - 1.14 home - a major surprise if this were anything but a home win, despite FYR being a bit crap themselves.
730pm - San Marino v Sweden - 1.01 away - likely better liquidity than the u21 match earlier - look towards over 3.5 / 4.5 or even more goals, and the possibility of a hatrick as we have Ibrahimovich on our side!!
730pm - Serbia v Faroe Islands - 1.04 home - Serbia can catch Italy, so expect a win and I am impressed with 0-3 away at a tough Faroes. So, a goals bet could be on the cards ( as per the odds).
745pm - England v Wales - 1.15 home -England's home form v ropey and Wales buoyant from a recent win against Montenegro. Should be a home win all day, but do not discount Wales scoring first ( please!) to enhance the odds.
815pm - Leiria v Porto - 1.3 away - expect some stern resistance, and a possible 0-0 at half time. The longer it is 0-0 the bigger will Porto's price be. I expect them to eventually prevail.
9pm - Spain v Liechtenstein - 1.01 home - 2nds out, round 1. I expect a fair contest! No not really. Liechtenstein's keeper likely to have back ache here from picking the ball out of the net, and we might get a collector's item here - a Torres goal!You can tell your grandkids you were there when Torres scored a goal.
Expect a 5+ goal haul this evening, or if they click, a replication of Holland's recent 11-0.
4pm Leicester - any reason for the absences? 5 horses and 3 places and title chasing jockey Silvestre De Sousa onboard offers us compelling argument to place back Monsieur Joe. Napped by Spotlight and 1.19 to place, he only has 2 to beat to place.
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