Rangers won with ease. Quiet day on the football and I will go with the " thousand notebooks" who noted the last effort of Akeed Mofeed for Murtagh/Oxx
*****420 CURRAGH - Akeed Mofeed to place only**** - take Betfair SP if the current 1.3 ish is not available. I hope the hype, coupled with Murtagh/Oxx , can coax this one into one of the 2 available places.
4pm -
QPR v Aston Villa - 2.34 home
HEAD TO HEADS - no recent relevant head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 8th
HOME TEAM - QPR
RECENT HOME FORM - LD - loss to Bolton and draw v Newcastle
RECENT FORM OVERALL -LWLDW - wins against Wolves and Everton and remember some new signings could make an impact - the win against Wolves epitomised that - with Barton , Faurlin and Campbell scoring.
GOAL TRENDS - QPR have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches and have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches
STREAKS - n/a
AWAY TEAM - ASTON VILLA
RECENT AWAY FORM - DD - 0-0 v Fulham and 2-2 v Everton
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWDDD - draws against Fulham Wolves, Everton and Newcastle -McLeish stifling attack?
GOAL TRENDS - only 2 over 2.5 goals matches from 5.
STREAKS - 2 draws away - 3 draws on the trot
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 5 matches to go on and a question mark regarding any positive impact that QPR's new signings might make - they certainly made said impact at Wolves. This makes me retiscent to get involved here. Villa have had 2 draws away - and 4 from 5 draws ( or 8 dropped points) - this must end and they are playing newly promoted team which conceivably could be weaker than recent opposition?
4pm -
Wisla Krakow v Ruch Chorzow - 1.54 home - on soccerstats so worth investigating.
A general trend towards Wisla but Ruch chipped in with a solitary recent home win
LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 5th -after 7 matches
HOME TEAM - WISLA
RECENT HOME FORM - WLW - win and loss both 1-0 and last win 2-0 - enough evidence to hint at defensive ability?
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWDLWW - only 1 loss this season was a 1-0
GOAL TRENDS - all matches this season under 2.5 goals - Wisla have kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 matches-the exception that 1-0 loss.
STREAKS - no draw in 3, no goal conceded in 2
AWAY TEAM - Ruch Chorzow
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLW - the win was a 1-0 v current 11th
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLLWWW - 3 match winning streak - 2 at home , 1 away.Interesting that losses against current 1st and 3rd, but remember only 8 matches in so how accurate are league positions as being representative of good teams - might just have had a decent start to the season?
GOAL TRENDS - 67% overs away from home
STREAKS - 3 match winning streak - 5 without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - what stands out for me is Wisla's strong trends towards defensive capability and ensuing 100% under 2.5 goals this season. This makes them of some appeal to score first, logically, if there is to be a goal and thus this is a trading angle. The away side have had 2 away matches over 2.5 goals which is not congruent but can we really be super confident after 8 matches. No draw at home for Wisla and no draw in 5 for the away side - tenuous I know.
5pm - Anderlecht v GBA - 1.34 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Anderlecht clean sheet
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 11th
HOME TEAM - Anderlecht
RECENT HOME FORM - WDW - the draw saw Anderlecht go a man down.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWDDWW - draws against 1st and 6th.
GOAL TRENDS - 66.7% overs at home.Anderlecht have scored in all matches this season. Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in her last 2 matches.
STREAKS - 6 overall without defeat -
AWAY TEAM - Beerschot
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDL - have scored and conceded in all matches .Losses agaisnt 4th and 5th might hint at vulnerability but remember this early in the season that league positions are based on few matches.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDWDDLW - both wins at home. All draws were score draws.
GOAL TRENDS - Have conceded in all bar the last match and scored in all matches this season. 3 of last matches under 2.5 goals because the 3 matches contained 2 goals only.
STREAKS - 3 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - GBA have not scored against Anderlecht in recent matches. WDW at home v LDL away -only a few matches to go on but a hint at Anderlecht, not losing in their last 6 with 4 wins, are capable of the win here. I am not sure about goals and GBA have been scoring in their matches this season but remember that Anderlecht have not conceded in the head to heads.
6pm - Besiktas v Antalyaspor - 1.49 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Another match with a team clean sweeping in head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 7th only after 3 matches
HOME TEAM - Besiktas
RECENT HOME FORM - 3-1 win over Ankar - not much to go on in that match bar the odds and they were spot on
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWW -
GOAL TRENDS - all matches over 2.5 goals. All matches Besiktas have scored and conceded.
STREAKS - 3 without a draw
AWAY TEAM - Antalyaspor
RECENT AWAY FORM - 0-1 away win.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWL - both wins were 1-0 - Ant have scored 1 goal in each match this season.
GOAL TRENDS - no real trends
STREAKS only 3 matches
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Besiktas have scored 3-2-2 in last 3 head to heads at home - They were 1.41 last home match and won with ease. Not much to go on as you can expect after 3 games. A quick look at last year? 4 losses at home last year included against 1st and 2nd for Besiktas. Against top 9 away last season, Antalyaspor lost 6 times, conceding 2 or more on each occasion. Only 1 win indicates trouble against the top teams ( and Besiktas were 5th last season)
7pm - Hajduk Split v Slaven Belupo - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS
clean sheets in last 2 head to heads at home.
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 6th - 8 matches played compared to 9 elsewhere. A win takes Hajduk 2nd.
HOME TEAM - Hajduk
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWD - 1-1 last draw - have scored 2-2-2-1 in their home matches
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWWDDW - the only match Hajduk did not score in, they lost. They scored first in both score draws and naturally scored in all other matches.
GOAL TRENDS - 3 over 2.5 goals and one 1-1 match ( 1-1 by half time so successful over 2.5 goals bet) - last 3 matches overall have been under 2.5 goals because they have had 2 goals only
STREAKS - 3 wins, 1 draw, 2.25 scored, 0.75 conceded on average. - 7 without defeat in all competitions
AWAY TEAM - Slaven Belupo
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWL
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLWWWLD
GOAL TRENDS - over 1.5 goals hints that over 2.5 goals might be within reach particularly as Slaven have conceded 4-2 and scored 4-3-3 in matches.
STREAKS - n/a
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - far too little to work on and not on soccerstats so this tempers enthusiasm.
In a quiet day I am going to look at a few more matches that I normally would not consider based on their odds.
12pm -
St Johnstone v Hearts - 2.4 away
HEAD TO HEADS
Head to heads point towards a " whoever plays best on the day gets the points" type of match?
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 4th - St Johnstone have played one less than Hearts
HOME TEAM - St Johnstone
RECENT HOME FORM - LLD - 0-2 loss v Rangers , 0-1 loss v Dunfermline and 3-3 draw with Dundee United inconclusive -no wins yet.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLWDDW - no defeat in 4 and amazingly beat Celtic away 1-0 - the launching pad for the unbeaten run.St Johnstone are actually unbeaten away from home.
GOAL TRENDS - 33% overs at home but only 3 matches - 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals - St Johnstone have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 matches - a concerted defensive attitude?After having failed to score in their first 3 matches, St Johnstone have scored in 3 of their last 4.
STREAKS - no win in 3 at home. 4 match unbeaten run.
AWAY TEAM - Hearts - normally 3rd to the Old Firm?
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDD - no win away - sole loss was a 1-0.2 of 3 draws were 1-1's including v Rangers
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLWDWDW - both losses 1-0 v Dundee United and Motherwell - another team cultivating an unbeaten run - this time 5 .All wins have come at home without conceding. All intervening draws have come away. Jekyll and Hyde home and away?
GOAL TRENDS - only 1 match this season over 2.5 goals.Hearts have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 although 3 of those matches featured 2 goals only.
STREAKS - 4 without a win away.5 overall without defeat.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - generally tight head to heads are reflected in the odds. St Johnstone have kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4 matches. hearts have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 matches. What chance a defensive match on the cards this afternoon? Under 2.5 goals based on these defensive stats. Both teams have not won at home ( home side) and away ( the away side) To reiterate this is why I do not usually research matches with odds so high for one side. Tough to get angles in.
325 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Rebel Fitz, 7/2 Letter Of Credit, 4/1 Mississippi River, 8/1 Sixteen Forty Two, 10/1 Bleakfield Lady, 14/1 Ontheground, 66/1 Cooneys Castle, 66/1 Fastnowfast, 66/1 Stamford Ridge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This contains a couple of interesting hurdling recruits with Letter Of Credit and Mississippi River both returning to action. However, the penalised Cork maiden hurdle winner REBEL FITZ makes more appeal and is selected to hopefully make amends for his recent costly Galway defeat. [Brian Fleming]
DAvey Russell a top jock on the favourite
420 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Akeed Mofeed, 4/1 Furner´s Green, 6/1 David Livingston, 13/2 Parish Hall, 12/1 Athens, 20/1 Blue White Fire, 33/1 Whip Rule.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AKEED MOFEED can etch his name into a proud roll of honour that includes such great names as Sea The Stars, Azamour and Sadler's Wells. Others have stronger form claims but it's all about the potential of John Oxx's colt, who looked a bit special at Leopardstown. Furner's Green and Parish Hall may offer the most resistance. [Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
" a bit special"
300 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dubawi Sound, 5/2 Sure Route, 5/1 Yojimbo, 6/1 Our Gal, 10/1 Tasfeya, 12/1 Orientalist, 20/1 Norse Blues.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few to consider and a slight concern the pace will be muddling but SURE ROUTE is a progressive sort who may still be ahead of the handicapper and may be up to defying top weight. The unexposed Dubawi Sound is greatly feared. [Frank Carter]
possible 8 horses - 3 places?
410 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Bells O Peover, 5/1 Shesha Bear, 6/1 Memory Lane, 12/1 Dubai Glory, 12/1 Epsom Salts, 14/1 Gunslinger, 14/1 Soundbyte, 16/1 Megalala, 16/1 Ullswater, 16/1 Winning Spark, 20/1 Choral Festival, 20/1 Super Duplex, 33/1 Beat Route, 40/1 Missionaire.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The blinkers have done wonders for THE BELLS O PEOVER (nap) who is hard to oppose after Thursday's romp at Pontefract. If those exertions have taken a toll, the most likely to take advantage are Shesha Bear and Memory Lane.[Richard Austen]
Price gapper in a class 4 apprentices handiap " hard to oppose"
530 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Jeu De Vivre, 7/2 Chookie Hamilton, 11/2 Lady Bluesky, 11/2 Miss Ferney, 12/1 Grand Diamond.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Chookie Hamilton has to be respected after last year's win in this and having shown he's no back number with course win number five here in August but preference has to be for progressive 3yo JEU DE VIVRE (nap), who should be hard to beat if repeating the form of last week's clear-cut Hamilton win. [Mel Cullinan]
johnston horses when odds on usually do the business and that man Fanning onboard
SHORTLIST
420 CURRAGH - Akeed Mofeed us a5/6 - - - 5/1 price gapper yet available at 1.3 to place. Yes, only 2 places but that is a good price for such a price gap.
300 EPSOM - Dubawi sound is 1.3 to place in a 7 runner/3 place race - good probabilities? Slight concern with absence since April and only 1 run.
530 MUSS - Jeu de vivre is now evens to Chookie's 3/1 -4 under 20/1 will fight out 2 places. Faith in Johnston/Fanning - they are so tempting a combo on a market leader.
5pm - Anderlecht v GBA - 1.34 home - faith in Anderlecht? Wins for GBA have all been at home
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