Wednesday 7 September 2011

7/9

What a poor day. Soft ground at Carlisle tempers enthusiasm . The football features cup matches from foreign leagues in illiquid betfair markets and Uttoxeter sees the best bet of the day in Thespis of Icaria but the short price is already up.

Nothing for me today. If liquid enough Sparta Prague look standout today ( hope for a first team out) in the Czech Cup. The biggest gap is Horsens but they are out of form. After the Lord Mayor's show today.


Done out of 3rd by a short head is as frustrating as it gets in a 5 horse race. And all the while, in the wings, there was bets such as Porto's.

4pm - KaPa v Klubi-04 - 1.14 away - Finnish 3rd division - not a division I want to dwell on but look at the total goals for both sides in their last 12 matches
kapa - 6-4-2-2-6-6-0-8-4-3-8 4
klubi - 9-6-3-9-4-5-3-5-6-2-3-5
Forget the Premiership, Sky , show some Finnish Division 3 if you want goal action. Obviously it doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to deduce this might be goal laden?
4pm -
Karlovy Vary v Plzen - 1.19 away - Czech Cup and the conquerors of FC Copenhagen are strong market leaders, and rightly so.Division 3C v Division 1. 4-2 in a friendly in 2011 should be replicated by the away side.

4pm -
Pardubice v Sparta Prague - 1.16 away - www.futbol24.com as Sparta as the home side here. Sparta are Division 1, Pardibuce are Division 3 and best known for their long distance horse race. Another decent gulf in leagues should see an easy Sparta Prague win with a strong team out ( and the problem with other-than-domestic Cup competitions is that we do not know.

5pm -
Holstebro v AC Horsens - 1.11 away - Division 4 v Division 1 and Danish Cup is normally ultra reliable re goals. Best gulf in leagues today, but illiquid market. Horsens have only won 2 of their last 12 matches so this could be a confidence booster ( or for those looking for a shock, laying Horsens costs you nothing really in liability if you think their poor form will continue)

245 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ventura Spirit, 15/8 Naseem Alyasmeen, 10/1 Istan Star, 10/1 Luctor Emergo, 12/1 Behlul, 12/1 More Bottle, 14/1 Grippa, 50/1 Catramis, 50/1 Eastern Seel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VENTURA SPIRIT couldn't quite cut it in a good nursery at York last time but he is stiill unexposed at the trip and can get off the mark at the main expense of Naseem Alyasmeen here.[Paul Smith]

2 under 8/1 as I write here and Ventura Spirit has had at least one run on soft ground, coming 2nd and it is soft at Carlisle today.

500 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Smart Violetta, 6/1 Syncopated Lady, 8/1 Media Stars, 10/1 Carlitos Spirit, 10/1 Island Chief, 10/1 Machir Bay, 11/1 Poppy Golightly, 14/1 Bright Applause, 20/1 Harare, 25/1 Fairy Mist, 25/1 Funky Munky, 25/1 Idealism, 33/1 Renege The Joker, 50/1 Sister Sioux.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SMART VIOLETTA (nap) is fully effective on at least good to soft ground and looks to have a great chance in such an uninspiring line-up. Fellow 3yo Syncopated Lady looks the most obvious danger although plenty of the older horses have their chance if you go back far enough and look hard enough in the form-book.[Richard Austen]

Class 6 0-60 handicap and Smart Violetta a slightly uneasy 9/4 . No soft ground experience but as good to soft experience ( 2 2nd places)

220 UTTOXETER


BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Grandads Horse, 2/1 Snow Blizzard, 9/2 Layla´s Dancer, 12/1 Forever Waining, 16/1 Doyenne Dream, 16/1 Tom Wade, 20/1 Forever My Friend, 25/1 Campden Society, 66/1 Starbird, 100/1 Father Martin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although we haven't seen GRANDADS HORSE since April, he could still prove good enough to take this, especially as he receives weight from recent dual scorer Snow Blizzard.[Jonathan Neesom]

4 under 16/1 here as I write.

540 UTTOXETER


BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Thespis Of Icaria, 6/1 My Girl Millie, 8/1 Court In Session, 8/1 Flemensgael, 14/1 In The West, 33/1 Yar Patrick, 66/1 Amber Sun, 66/1 Hay Dandy, 66/1 Midnight Gamble.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from the well-bred THESPIS OF ICARIA, who created a good impression when scoring in easy fashion on his debut and won't have to better that to follow up. [Richard Young]

Big price gapper and Curtis/McCoy strong partnership in bumpers.



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