I left you with ath Madrid beating Celtic and that man Falcao started it off after 3 minutes.
1230pm - Millwall v West Ham -good old fashioned London clash , and we must acknowledge that the Hamsters are far better away than at home. But then they have not been to the Den yet or played any other London away derbies. Will this affect their excellent away form?
HEAD TO HEADS
| 25.08.2009 | LC | West Ham | 3-1 AET | Millwall FC | |
| 16.04.2005 | LCh | West Ham | 1-1 | Millwall FC |
5 draws, 2 wins and a loss v top 8 last season at home for Millwall and I would equate West Ham as easily top 8 equivalent.
2-0 and 3-0 wins against QPR and Palace last season ( the only london opponents) could hint at Millwall being well up for London clashes.
So, accounting for that, what does the form say? Well again 6 matches ( 3 home, 3 away generally, not enough to come to a strong conclusion.
2 draws at home for Millwall so far. No defeat in 3 at home. Not scored in 3 overall. West ham are solid away from home where there is less pressure, but again this is no ordinary away match. Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.
Could be an overs match, and form would point to the Hammers. But this is like a cup game -why? Well it is a London derby.
1245pm - Blackburn v Arsenal - 1.94 away - you would normally expect to see shorter here but this is a sign that Arsenal are not yet to be trusted.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 02.04.2011 | PR | Arsenal FC | 0-0 | Blackburn Rovers | |
| 28.08.2010 | PR | Blackburn Rovers | 1-2 | Arsenal FC | |
| 03.05.2010 | PR | Blackburn Rovers | 2-1 | Arsenal FC | |
| 04.10.2009 | PR | Arsenal FC | 6-2 | Blackburn Rovers | |
| 14.03.2009 | PR | Arsenal FC | 4-0 | Blackburn Rovers |
POSITIVES FOR GETTING INVOLVED - Arsenal are available at nearly odds against and certainly still have some world class players on their day. If the new team gels, they should be an attacking force. Blackburn have only scored 3 this season which leans us towards an Arsenal team opening the scoring? Or if Blackburn score first, lay the,
NEGATIVES - new Arsenal team tough to predict. Previous head to heads based on best 2 players being in the team. Only 4 matches to work on will not give us any solid form ,lines.
Blackburn are still searching for their first win of the campaign but are buoyed by a decent 1-1 draw at Fulham, their only point from four fixtures.
Arsenal have not won any of their last five away matches but have lost only one of their last five Premier League visits to Ewood Park, winning three.
The Gunners have struggled for form so far this season but bounced back from the 8-2 defeat at Manchester United to claim their first Barclays Premier League victory of the season with a 1-0 success against Swansea City.
Blackburn playmaker Junior Hoilett is fit.
The Canada-born forward was concussed after a heavy collision with Fulham goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer last week.
Morten Gamst Pedersen (hamstring), David Dunn (calf) and Ryan Nelsen (knee) all face fitness tests.
Arsenal will welcome back Alex Song and Gervinho from three-match bans but midfielder Aaron Ramsey (ankle) faces a fitness test.
Defender Carl Jenkinson is also available following a one-match suspension, but Tomas Rosicky (knee) and Ryo Miyaichi (calf) are doubts.
Midfielders Jack Wilshere and Abou Diaby (both ankle) are longer-term absentees.
Blackburn Rovers: Robinson, Dann, Samba, Olsson, Salgado, Givet, Dunn, Petrovic, Nzonzi, Hoilett, Formica, Goodwillie, Rochina, Lowe, Roberts, Yakubu, Vukcevic, Hanley, Pedersen, Slew, Blackman, Bunn.
Arsenal: Szczesny, Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs, Benayoun, Walcott, Song, Arteta, Van Persie, Gervinho, Fabianski, Santos, Frimpong, Chamakh, Park, Djourou, Arshavin, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Jenkinson, Ramsey.
1pm - PK-35 v FC Espoo - 1.16 home
2pm - Sampdoria v Grosseto - 1.47 home - Grosseto there for the taking in this Seria A season?
HEAD TO HEADS - no head to heads.
POSITIVES - I would possible take a risk on Sampdoria here, scoring first and maybe replicating the fact they have scored 2 minimum at home this season. A newly promoted side, I could risk the hope that they have retained many of the Seria A team? Further, Grossetto have conceded first in their last 3 matches.
NEGATIVES - 2 teams who have not met before, and are both unbeaten. Conceivably, Grossetto could be a match for Sampdoria today. We simply do not know on this head to head debut.
230pm - H Berlin v Augsburg - 1.51 home - more newcomers to the Bundesliga and I did speak about a focus on relegated and promoted sides as being a mainstay of weekend betting.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 15.05.2011 | D2 | Hertha BSC Berlin | 2-1 | FC Augsburg | |
| 18.12.2010 | D2 | FC Augsburg | 1-1 | Hertha BSC Berlin |
POSITIVES FOR GETTING INVOLVED? Hertha against top 6 at home scored 2 goals minimum. Augsburg were 2nd last season and against top 8 away, only scored 1 goal. Hints that Hertha likely to score first.
Another strong angle in could be goal times? On reaching the 70th minute, if just the one goal has been scored, why not speculate on more goals being scored. Look at Hertha's home goals times ( albeit only 2 goals so not strong) and Augsburg's away goals concession times.
NEGATIVES - as hinted at, 2 promoted sides might be over familiar and in a better league there might be a different dynamic. 5 matches in again not enough to garner nailed on trends.
230pm - Leverkusen v FC Koln - 1.43 home
HEAD TO HEADS (H2H)
| 30.04.2011 | D1 | 1.FC Köln | 2-0 | Bayer Leverkusen | |
| 05.12.2010 | D1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3-2 | 1.FC Köln | |
| 27.02.2010 | D1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0-0 | 1.FC Köln | |
| 26.09.2009 | D1 | 1.FC Köln | 0-1 | Bayer Leverkusen |
POSITIVES FOR GETTING INVOLVED - are based largely on last season which saw Leverkusen only lose 3 at home and Koln only win 2 away last season.
NEGATIVES - no congruency with goals with leverkusen looking solid defensively ( albeit 2 matches only but 2 strong opponents) and Koln matches featuring 6 and 7 goals. Perhaps a look at a Leverkusen win to nil, but then what of the fact Koln have scored 2 in each of last 2 head to heads.
3pm - Aston Villa v Newcastle - 2.02 home
Both sides have made unbeaten starts to the new campaign.
Seven of the last eight meetings have finished as home wins with Villa chalking up a 1-0 success in last season's corresponding fixture.
Newcastle have not won at Villa Park since their 2-1 success in February 2006.
Aston Villa will be without Emile Heskey and Jermaine Jenas.
Heskey looks set to be out for two to three weeks with a pulled hamstring, while on-loan Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Jenas also misses out this weekend after suffering a thigh injury in training.
Eric Lichaj is expected to be sidelined for three to four months after undergoing a hip operation. Fellow defender Carlos Cuellar is recovering well from a knee problem but lacks match fitness.
Full-back Davide Santon could be out of action for a month after suffering a cartilage injury which will require minor surgery.
The 20-year-old former Inter Milan defender will miss out on a chance to make his senior debut for the club at Aston Villa on Saturday, and utility man Ryan Taylor is likely to continue in what has been a problem position for manager Alan Pardew since Jose Enrique's summer departure for Liverpool.
Hatem Ben Arfa is back in training after his ankle injury but is unlikely to be risked at the weekend, although he could make the squad for Tuesday night's Carling Cup trip to Nottingham Forest, while Haris Vuckic (broken hand), Mehdi Abeid and Mike Williamson (broken arm) remain on the casualty list.
Aston Villa: Given, Guzan, Hutton, Herd, Dunne, Collins, Warnock, N'Zogbia, Petrov, Bannan, Delph, Petrov, Ireland, Albrighton, Bent, Agbonlahor, Delfouneso.
Newcastle United: Krul, Harper, Simpson, R. Taylor, Ferguson, Coloccini, S. Taylor, Tiote, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Marveaux, Obertan, Gosling, Guthrie, Smith, Ba, Shola Ameobi,HEAD TO HEADS
| 10.04.2011 | PR | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 22.08.2010 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 6-0 | Aston Villa | |
| 24.05.2009 | PR | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 03.11.2008 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 2-0 | Aston Villa | |
| 09.02.2008 | PR | Aston Villa | 4-1 | Newcastle Utd | |
| 18.08.2007 | PR | Newcastle Utd | 0-0 | Aston Villa |
Downing and Young 2 massive sales for Villa. They have bought well though. Nzogbia ideal for defensive minded McLeish. Given and Darren Bent 2 key signings in key positions.
NEGATIVES - only 4 matches played and we have a new look Villa side which may make last year's form redundant. The signings of Given and Bent at each end of the field is superb.
POSITIVES - having conceded only 1 in 3 H2H meetings, and with Given playing against an old side, perhaps we can expect Villa to keep a tight defensive grip here. After all, can you name a standout Newcastle Striker ( no Wor Jackie Milburn is not the right answer, I mean currently!)?
To back this up 3/4 Newcastle matches under 2.5 goals and Newcastle have taken til the 2nd half to score ( hints at a tight first half)
3pm - Bolton v Norwich - 1.84 home
HEAD TO HEADS -n/a -last head to head 20005
POSITIVES - Bolton's only win this season was against a newly promoted sides. Their losses - all against Man Utd, Man City, and Liverpool. The 1.84 may appeal here for Bolton against another newly promoted side. Norwich are yet to win, and likely to get more points against sides weaker than Bolton.
NEGATIVES - again only 4 matches gone this season and Bolton have only played one promoted side( yes there are only 3 to choose from). Concerns when teams meet for the first time in a long time that Norwich may just be suited by Bolton's style of play -you never know. Norwich have been strong defensively this season - will that continue against a Bolton side who have scored 5 against newcomers away!
3pm - Everton v Wigan - 1.57 home - immediately this price, to me, looked very short but that is a knee jerk reaction
Loan signing Royston Drenthe could be pushing for his first Everton start against Wigan at Goodison Park on Saturday after featuring for the reserves in midweek.
Fellow deadline-day arrival Denis Stracqualursi may also make his Toffees debut while Phil Neville is fighting to regain his place in the side after being left out last weekend.
With striker Louis Saha still not fully match fit Tim Cahill is expected to start in attack again.
Wigan defender Emmerson Boyce (hamstring) is rated only 50-50.
Defenders Steven Gohouri (calf) and Antolin Alcaraz (thigh) are getting closer to fitness but remain sidelined.
Manager Roberto Martinez, who made seven changes in the Carling Cup in midweek, will revert to a more familiar line-up but Shaun Maloney, David Jones and Patrick van Aanholt could make league debuts.
Everton: Howard, Hibbert, Neville, Distin, Jagielka, Baines, Barkley, Fellaini, Osman, Rodwell, Drenthe, Cahill, Stracqualursi, Mucha, Hibbert, Baxter, Bilyaletdinov, Vellios.
Wigan Athletic: Al Habsi, Caldwell, Figueroa, Lopez, Watson, Diame, Moses, Gomez, Rodallega, Di Santo, Jones, Stam, Van Aanholt, McArthur, McCarthy, Thomas, Sammon, Maloney, Crusat, McManaman, Kirkland.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 30.04.2011 | PR | Wigan Athletic | 1-1 | Everton FC | |
| 11.12.2010 | PR | Everton FC | 0-0 | Wigan Athletic | |
| 30.01.2010 | PR | Wigan Athletic | 0-1 | Everton FC |
3pm - Kalmar FF v Halmstads - 1.42 home
HEAD TO HEADS
3pm - Swansea v West Brom - 2.82 both sides. These kind of odds quite obviously relate a tight match in store. Key stat is that Swansea have not scored a goal yet but they have been damn close. I think games against " Championship" feel sides ( such as Birmingham etc) should afford the Swans the best chance of scoring. REmember that the longer this no scoring sequence goes, the nearer we will be to a goal .
Captain Garry Monk is set for a first appearance of the season.
The defender is likely to return from a niggling foot problem, and his availability is a welcome boost for manager Brendan Rodgers, who is faced with a defensive crisis.
Monk and Ashley Williams are the only fit centre-halves that Rodgers can call upon, with Alan Tate (broken leg) and Steven Caulker (knee) injured and deadline-day signings Darnel Situ and Rafik Halliche unable to join the club after FIFA denied them international clearance.
Midfielder Kemy Agustien (hamstring) and striker Craig Beattie (ankle) are also out. The former's absence meaning Joe Allen will keep his place in midfield, with Wayne Routledge set to return to the side after missing the defeat at Arsenal.
Zoltan Gera will miss out after suffering a recurrence of his ankle injury.
Fellow midfielder Chris Brunt faces a late fitness test as he continues to recover from a knee injury picked up in training.
The Baggies go into the match on the back of their securing their first points of the season at Norwich City last time out.
Swansea City: Vorm, Williams, Taylor, Bodde, Britton, Graham, Sinclair, Dyer, Dobbie, Routledge, Monk, Lita, Moore, Bessone, Moreira, Ranel, Allen, Tremmel, Gower, Richards.
West Bromwich Albion: Bednar, Brunt, Cox, Dorrans, Fortune, Foster, Fulop, Jara, B Jones, Long, McAuley, Morrison, Mulumbu, Odemwingie, J Olsson, Reid, Scharner, Shorey, Thomas, Tchoyi, Daniels.
HEAD TO HEADS - n/a
The early season form points to a long drawn out 0-0 with a possible 2nd half goal decider. But with Peter Odimwegie for WBA, and I like him, they could score if Swansea become naive defensively. Remember though that they kept Man City quiet for a half.
3pm - Wolves v QPR - 2.02 home
Striker Steven Fletcher is a doubt as he battles to recover from a groin problem.
The Scot picked up the injury in last weekend's 2-0 defeat by Tottenham and it was initially feared he could be sidelined for a spell but boss Mick McCarthy is hopeful he will be available.
Winger Stephen Hunt and defender Kevin Foley have both missed training this week with ankle niggles but McCarthy is confident they, too, will be fit for Saturday.
Manager Neil Warnock was expecting no fresh injury concerns.
Rangers' new signings all came through Monday night's goalless draw with Newcastle relatively unscathed and should be available again for the Molineux clash.
Kieron Dyer (foot), Jamie Mackie (leg) and Rob Hulse (knee) remain sidelined.
Wolverhampton Wanderers: Hennessey, Elokobi, Stearman, Craddock, Kightly, Henry, Fletcher, Ward, Hunt, Ikeme, Johnson, Berra, Jarvis, Vokes, Hammill, Milijas, Zubar, O'Hara, Doyle, De Vries, Foley, Guedioura.
Queens Park Rangers: Kenny, Hill, Derry, Hall, Gabbidon, Taarabt, Campbell, Bothroyd, Faurlin, Traore, Buzsaky, Connolly, Barton, Young, Smith, Helguson, Murphy, Wright-Phillips, Ferdinand, Puncheon.
HEAD TO HEADS
not relevant really.
NEGATIVES - a new look QPR team could conceivably play above expectations ( and then they could conceivably take time to bed in - we simply don't know)
POSITIVES- I would be loathe personally to oppose Wolves at home, particularly against newly promoted sides ( acknowledging as I do that QPR have access to funds but are playing with largely cast offs). Spurs are far better than QPR and I would not be as dismissive of Wolves' chances at home as the Racing Post are.
5pm - Granada v Villarreal - 2,32 away - first glance and the odds look too high for Villareal, but do these odds reflect how they have been performing recently?
530pm - Rapid Vienna v KSV Superfund - -1.37 home
545pm - Groningen v Excelsior - 1.33 home
| 18.12.2010 | D1 | SBV Excelsior | 2-2 | FC Groningen | |
| 18.09.2010 | D1 | FC Groningen | 2-0 | SBV Excelsior |
16th v 18th - 2 teams in poor form making poor starts to the new season.
Groningen Home form - 4-2 win and 0-3 loss to AZ - win against current 14th place
LWDLL overall form so far and Groningen have struggled against the better sides.
All matche over 2.5 goals . Groningen have failed to score in last 2 matches.
Excelsior's recent away form reads LL - conceding 2 and 6.
Overall form of LLDLL - draw came at home.
All 5 matches over 1.5 goals. Have conceded 6 and 3 in last 2 matches.
This is simply poor v even worse. 1.33 for Groningen far too short for me. Both sides are in dire form. Any layers of Groningen would have to place their faith in a poor Excelsior.
Can we even trust over 2.5 goals here, which looks obvious? Both sides may be well matched as they are both bottom 3.
6pm - Trabzonspor v Istanbul BB - 1.5 home
| 15.05.2011 | D1 | Trabzonspor | 3-1 | İstanbul BB | |
| 12.12.2010 | D1 | İstanbul BB | 1-3 | Trabzonspor | |
| 20.02.2010 | D1 | Trabzonspor | 0-0 | İstanbul BB |
Sole match this season 1-1 away for Trab.
2-0 home win v Galatasary for Istanbul but are Gala the force of old?
This is 2nd on goal difference only from last year v 12th from last year.
Only 1 loss at home last season for Trab.
Instanbul lost 8, drew 1 and won 1 against top 10 last season away .
Only one match gone so perhaps matches such as this which hint perhaps at Trabonzpor dominance, can be taclked with reactive trading inplay incase they concede first. We have little or nothing to go on, so speculators might look to over 3.5 goals ( to replicate last 2 head to heads?) but this is risky on 2nd match only of a new season.
7pm - Barcelona v Osasuna - 1.11 home - now when Barcelona unexpectedly drop points in a previous match, expect firm retribution next match. They quite simply cannot afford to drop any points at all as it simply will spell an end to the La Liga title challenge, even this early on. Barca have scored 2+ in both matches so far
| 23.04.2011 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 2-0 | CA Osasuna | |
| 04.12.2010 | D1 | CA Osasuna | 0-3 | FC Barcelona | |
| 24.03.2010 | D1 | FC Barcelona | 2-0 | CA Osasuna |
Osasuna drew 0-0 away at Ath Madrid sole away match of season.
Only 3 wins away all last season for Osasuna. Well we expect a home win but is there any way to enhance the odds. No point me researching endlessly here. Over 2.5 goals might be a good call here. 2-0, 3-0 home win, but always a suspicion that Barca can simply let loose in a heartbeat. No Champions League distractions for Barca.
745pm - Feyenoord v De Graafschap - 1.43 home
Feyenoord were expected to beat heerenveen but drew 2-2 after conceding first.
| 22.01.2011 | D1 | Feyenoord | 0-1 | De Graafschap | |
| 03.10.2010 | D1 | De Graafschap | 1-1 | Feyenoord | |
| 22.02.2009 | D1 | De Graafschap | 0-2 | Feyenoord |
4th v 13th
3-0 and 2-2 for Feyenoord at home.
WWDDW for Feyenoord overall. They were expected to win their draws.
2 score draws for De Graafschap away from home and they were leading 0-2 and 0-1 in both matches.
LDDLW for De Graaf overall.Only 2 wins away for De Graaf last season , both 0-1 against Feyenoord and bottom side, hinting that the Feyenoord result was anomolous.
No goal trends of interest after so few games.
It seems to me that the head to heads signal a tight early exchange here but last year's result points to a poor away team in De GRaaf. 1.43 is short enough to be layable. Feyenoord are unbeaten this season and if De Graaf score first, I would get involved from a trading perspective.
It is the head to heads that are throwing me here.
9pm - Sevilla v Sociedad - 1.57 home
| 15.05.2011 | D1 | Sevilla FC | 3-1 | Real Sociedad | |
| 08.01.2011 | D1 | Real Sociedad | 2-3 | Sevilla FC |
Only 2 matches played so league position analysis pointless.
2 matches played - 2-1 home win v Malaga and 2-2 away draw v villareal.( an 86th minute Seville equaliser)
Both matches over 2.5 goals.
Sociedad so far?1-2 away win and 2-2 home draw v a much changed Barca side. Similar form levels.
2 standout players so far. Negredo has scored 3 in 2 matches for Sevilla and Agirretxe has scored 3 goals in 2 games for Sociedad.
No point doing indepth analysis after 2 matches. Head to heads point to Sevilla having the upper hand here. All 4 matches over 2.5 goals and both 2011 head to heads both over 2.5 goals.
Overs anyone?
430 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Poet, 7/4 Hot Prospect, 7/2 Vesuve, 10/1 Cracking Lass, 25/1 Zafisio.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POET hasn't really sparkled on his last three appearances but has faced some fairly tough assignments and, with no obvious competition for the lead, should appreciate the chance to dominate this field and could prove hard to catch. Hot Prospect has also been placed in Group company this season and may pose a bigger threat than 2010 winner Vesuve. [Chris Wilson]
should be a 3 horse race for 2 places.
230 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Caspar Netscher, 9/2 Saigon, 5/1 B Fifty Two, 6/1 Redact, 16/1 Crown Dependency, 16/1 Factory Time, 16/1 Foxtrot Romeo, 16/1 Otto The Great, 20/1 Swiss Spirit.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only Foxtrot Romeo and Otto The Great do not hold Group 1 engagements in either the Middle Park or Dewhurst. The odds are likely to be cramped but CASPAR NETSCHER thrived in the summer and a repeat of his Gimcrack form will make him very hard to beat. B Fifty Two may be the best each-way alternative. [Frank Carter]
Price gapper in a class 2 always needs to be respected.
2 year old race - how consistent are they?
SHORTLIST - 2pm - Sampdoria should have a good chance of beating Grossetto -I am putting faith in their Seria A squad being
6pm - Trabzonspor v Istanbul BB - 1.5 home - 2nd to Fener last year and have scored 3 in home and aways against Istanbul
7pm - Barcelona v Osasuna - 1.11 home - must win for Barca - 1.43 over 2.5 goals scuppered with a 2-0 ( and Osasuna have not scored in last 3 head to heads)
The horse racing is very competitive today and nothing appeals.
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