back-lay-trade-horses-football: 29/9

This, for me, is between Spurs and Press Office this evening. Difficult to gauge the latter because we have a long gap to race start and as this is a maiden there may be the proverbial "dark horses" lurking as potential market movers.

I am going to take a chance on Press Office in the hope that the odds are better than Spurs.
***** 640 KEMPTON - Back Press Office to place only - please use Betfair SP unless you can wait til race time*****

Avon River won.

6pm - Braga v Club Brugge - 1.62 home
In 2011 for Braga LWWDDDLWLDDW - only 3 losses in Europa league v Lech Poznan ( who they beat 2-0 again afterwards), Porto and Benfica. Draws against Kiev twice and Young Boys twice.
WWDWD at home - last 4 matches either 1-0 or 0-0.
WLDWW in 2011 Europa for Brugge.
Wins against Zestafoni, Quarabag and Maribor - questionable opponents.
LDDLD away in last 5 in Europa.Last 2 draws score draws.
6pm - Celtic v Udinese - 2.34 home - Di Natale a big absentee for Udinese tonight - top scorer in Seria A last year. Since 2010, WLWWL for Celtic in Europa league with defeats to Utrecht and Ath Madrid. Both were away matches. infact Celtic did beat Utrecht 2-0 at home.
WIns against Utrecht and Sion at home saw Celtic keep 2 clean sheets.
Udinese were not in the Europa league 2010. So far in 2011 it is a 2-1 home win v Rennes and yes, Di Natale got a goal.
12 matches away in this league since 2000 has seen only 1 draw. 2009 saw 2-2 draw with lech poznan, 1-0 loss to Zenit, and 3-1 loss to Werder.

6pm - NK Maribor v Birmingham - 2.18 home - getting inside the head of Hughton you would expect him to play " tight" tonight away in Europe. But you would also expect him to have prioritised a return to the Premier League instead of a run in a competition they are unlikely to win.
In 2011, Maribor have beaten Rangers 2-1 at home and drew 1-1 at Rangers. They lost 2-0 away to Club Brugge. Tough then to weigh up these performances.
DWL for Brum in this competition, 0-0 draw away to Nacional, beat them at home 3-0.
Lost 1-3 at home to Braga.
Racing Post sees more away woes here. I see a match that is tough to weigh up.

6pm - OB v Fulham - 2.54 away - you can tell by the odds that this is a match with no clear favourite. Danish v Premiership and logic would point towards the Premiership as far superior.
WDWWLLLWDLW in the Europa since 2010 for OB. 8/10 over 1.5 goals. OB conceded in 8 of these matches.
OB have only suffered 2 90 minute losses in 18 Europa home matches. Quite a surprise that.
Teams are generally not big names that they have played over the years.
3 losses and 5 draws in all competitions for Fulham tells you where their head's are at.
All 6 losses for Fulham in this competition since 2002 have come away from home, but against the likes of Dnipro, Juve, Roma, Ath Madrid,Hertha.
WDWWDWWLD in 2011 in this competition. Loss v Dnipro was 1-0 and last draw was 1-1 home draw v Twente.
In 2011 away, the only win was an expected 1-3 v Crusaders. The other aways were 2 0-0's and a 0-1 loss.
This seems to be the tactic away in the Europa league. Keep it tight and hope for a goal. In stark contrast with OB though , but remember OB in the Europa League have been playing teams from leagues far weaker than the Premiership.
Champions League form for OB before entering the Europa, they beat Villareal at home 1-0 with an 84th minute goal and drew 1-1 with Panathanaikos.

6pm - Rennes v Atl Madrid - 2.58 away - humbled by Barca but then most teams will be. Falcao settled in well and scoring goals. Could be value, like Porto yesterday, to score first for a trade.
Only 2 draws in 19 Europa matches for Rennes and no draw in last 9 . WWWWL in 2011 - meeting established sides latest in Udinese. Wins against lowly European opponents.
2 wins in 2011 without conceding, 2-0 win over Rustavi, and 4-0 v Crvena Zvenza.
Madrid have won their 5 Europa matches in 2011, and kept a clean sheet in last 4. beat celtic and Guimareas latest.
3 wins and a 1-1 draw last 4 Europa aways - clean sheets in last 2. 2.58 looking a bit big with Falcao in great goalscoring form?
6pm - Schalke v Maccabi Haifa - 1.34 home - Immediately we would take the Bundesliga above the Israeli top flight all day.
Only 1 win in last 6 in Europa for Schalke may put that 1.34 at risk? Losses away to HJK and Twente perhaps avoidable 2-0 loss to Man City less so.
Last draw 0-0 away to Steaua Bucharest.
Only 3 losses in 18 Europa home matches -against Man City latest . So far in 2011 6-1 home win over HJK.
Maccaibi knocked out by Genk from Champions League.WLW last 3 since 2010 in Europa league. 2011 score 1-0 at home v AEK.
Only 2 wins away in the Europa league v Cwmbran Town and Lovech.
Have conceded 4 and 3 against Espanyol and Dinamo Minsk last 2 aways.

6pm - Twente v Wisla Krakow - 1.36 home
WDDL for Twente in the 2011 Champions League sees them in the Europa league.
WDWLLLD so far in 2011 Europa league - losses against Zenit and Villareal twice and a 1-1 draw v Fulham. market expects home advantage to count against weaker Polish opponents.
Wislaw put out of the Champions League by Apoel with a 3-1 loss away.
3 consecutive losses in the Europa league - lost twice 2010 against Qarabag? And in 2011 lost 1-3 at home to OB. This is the foundation of the short odds quote for Twente today I would suspect.
805pm - Stoke v Besiktas - 1.86 home - knee jerk? Stoke City at home equals defesive solidity. Gradually though they are facing better teams.
Stoke have beaten Hajduk Split and Thun so far home and away and drew 1-1 away at Dinamo Kiev last time out.
3 1-0's and a 1-1 out of 5 results typically Stoke-ish.
1-0 v Split and 4-1 win over Thun at home.
Only 2 draws in last 29 Europa matches for Besiktas is quite some stat .
2011 has seen them concede 4 goals twice against Dinamo Kiev. Can we take the 1-1 draw from Stoke against Kiev therefore as superior form?Besiktas beat Alaniya at home 3-0 and lost 2-0 away to the same side. Last match was a 5-1 home win v Maccaibi Tel Aviv.
Besiktas have not scored in their 2 away 2011 Europa matches 4-0 loss to Kiev and 2-0 loss v Alaniya.
The collateral form sees Stoke superior at home here and they should not lose if the Besiktas performances against Kiev are taken on trust as accurate reflections of their ability.

805pm - Tottenham v Shamrock Rovers - 1.18 home- heroic defensive display from the Irish boys, or likely to be mullered by an exciting pace filled forward line. Note the price is the same as Barca were last night and they won 5-0. Interesting key stat from the Racing Post. Spurs have played Irish opposition 4 times, scoring 16 and conceding 1. Slight niggle? Possible that 'Arry will rest some first team players this evening. Will the subs do the job as comfortably as a 1.18 quote would have us believe?
In 2011, Spurs beat HEarts 0-5 away, played out an unsurprising 0-0 home leg and drew 0-0 with PAOK last time.
Shamrock lost 0-3 at home to Rubin Kazan last Europa Match .

250 BANGOR

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Dunowen Point, 6/4 Gan On, 11/2 Sunsetten, 10/1 Pyracantha.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The bottom two on the card have both won over fences but seem to have gone off the boil lately so this may be fought out be the two hat-trick seekers. Gan On's form arguably has more depth but DUNOWEN POINT is marginally prefered on the basis he is more consistent and has AP McCoy in the saddle.

We cannot get too excited about Novice Chases but this has the look of a 2 horse race for 2 places!

640 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Press Office, 9/2 Wadha, 5/1 Intercept, 11/2 Splice, 13/2 Darsan, 9/1 Barachiel, 11/1 George Guru, 18/1 En Hiver, 25/1 Fakhuur, 50/1 Amaroni, 50/1 Heavenly Games, 66/1 Glens Wobbly, 66/1 Shannons Brook.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRESS OFFICE was just run down after quickening clear over 1m here two weeks ago and has strong claims dropped back to 7f. The other Godolphin runner Wadha looks a danger, along with Darsan, while the newcomers to watch in the betting are Splice, Intercept and Barachiel. [David Moon]

A favourite here who ran at Kempton last time ( 2nd) and has Dettori onboard should have a good place chance with the surface a known.

13/8 - - -6/1 early morning prices but bear in mind race is many hours away.

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Elite, 5/1 Chillie Billie, 6/1 Fantastic Smartie, 7/1 Regal Lady, 10/1 Rock Of Monet, 16/1 Yeeoow, 33/1 Jawim, 33/1 Little China, 50/1 Compton Ashdown.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An ordinary maiden and the ideal opening for ELITE (nap), whose Sandown fourth last month has already been boosted a few times, including by wins for the second and third. Chillie Billie should be happier back down to 5f and is an obvious each-way alternative from the inside stall in first-time headgear.[Graham Wheldon]

Best price gapper of the day this Elite for Sir Michael Stoute.Chillie Billie a bit shorter in the market at 10/3 and a 5 furlong maiden too . Elite is a debutant on the surface.

SHORTLIST

I don't like Europa League at all. It can be difficult to get an angle into .