This is one of those days where there are multiple opportunities.
*****ONE A DAY 745pm - Germany v Austria, back Germany in match odds at 1.17/1.18*****
My hand was rather forced by illiquid markets yesterday. Kinglet an unlucky 3rd, as the race was not dominated by the 3 under20/1 as I had hoped.
All world cup qualifiers unless otherwise stated - and importantly because they are competitive matches, there will be no slacking as regards team selection.
12pm - South Korea v Lebanon - 1.05 home - you saw the carnage Germany U21 released yesterday, well South Korea are priced a little bigger, but should be capable of 4 or 5. Lebanon have only won 1 of their last 12 in all competitions. recently beaten 2-0 by Bangladesh after beating Bangladesh 4-0.
South Korea have only lost 1 of their last 12, 3-0 away to Japan in a friendly. They have won their last 5 home matches and only loss in last 12 was 0-1 v Iran. Lebanon away have lost their last 5, but note a recent 1-0 loss to China. No real collateral form here.
1pm - China v Singapore - 1.22 home - tight head to heads albeit last one was 2009. China have only lost 1 of their last 12 internationals in all competitions, a convenient, ahem ,2-0 Qatar home win ( hmm who's hosting the World Cup, I forgot?)
China have won their last 6, but beat Laos twice and only beat Jamaica 1-0.
China have won 9 of their last 10 matches at home.
Singapore have beaten Malaysia 5-3 at home and drew 1-1 away in a recent World Cup qualifier.
Only 3 losses in last 12 but a feeling they have been playing poor opposition.
Away from home, they have won only 1 of their last 12, a 1-0 win over Thailand.Singapore have only scored 1 goals in their last 4 matches away. Singapore look a defensive unit so China might have to bide their time.
230pm - Venezuela v Argentina - 1.39 away - team news ideal for the Argies. They have all manner of wonderful players -will they be picked? Important to note that this is a friendly so team news is vital. NEw Argentinian Coach today and this friendly is being played in India. Full Argentina squad it would seem with Messi, Higuan, Di Maria all available.
So, a new manager and a friendly could be the recipe for leaving this well alone!
330pm - Serbia U21 v Northern Ireland U21 - 1.34 home - another qualifier and Northern Ireland are better at home than away. Serbia have only lost 1 of their last 12 at home in all competitions and have scored in all bar one of those 12 matches.They have scored 2-3-2-4-2 in their last 5 home matches.
Overall they have lost 3 of their last 4 matches ( all away) v France, Sweden and Uzbeckistan.
NI drew 0-0 away at Faroes and beat them 4-0 at home in their euro qualifiers last 2 matches.
They lost recently away to Wales, Scotland and Germany , conceding 2-3-3.
Add that together with Serbia's recent home goalscoring exploits and we might have NI conceding at least 2 today?
345pm - Latvia U21 v France U21 - 1.38 away - French have only lost 2of their last 12 in all competitions, both 0-1 home losses.
latvians have won only 5 of their last 12 in all competitions , against a local league side, Lithuania, Andorra , Estonia and Romania.
at home, they have lost only 2 of their last 12, 0-1 v Faroes and 0-4 v Russia. Tough to get an angle into the form as they tend to play eastern european countries.
France away are solid. No defeat in last 12, but recent form has been DDDDWWD - last 4 draws score draws. There are more readable matches today I feel.
4pm - Lithuania v Liechtenstein - 1.25 home - no great shakes themselves Lithuania but Liech, Andorra, San Marino et al are all opposable. BUT Liech beat Lithuania 2-0 in a June 2011 Euro qualifier and beat San Marino 0-1 too. Quite an achievement!
Lithuania have only lost 4 of their last 12 at home,against Spain, Belarus, Romania and France.
Liech away have only won 1 of their last 12, 0-1 v San marino. recently DLDWL may be a sign of changes at Liech? this included a 1-1 friendly draw v Estonia ( and Estonia needed a 2nd half penalty to gain parity) Estonia beat Lithuania 2-0 recently. Dare we read too much into this?
430pm - Iran v Indonesia - 1.13 home - the Americans haven't done one of their humanitarian bombing missions on Iran yet, so make the most of it boys. This should be an easy home win as South East Asian football is very weak. Iran have only lost 1 of their last 12 matches and that was a 0-3 loss to Brazil. 8 of their last 12 matches have featured 1 or no goals. 3 of Iran's last 4 wins have been 1-0 including the friendly scalp of Russia.
Indonesia have only lost 1 of last 12, but level of opponents questionable ( thailand, Laos, Malaysia)
Only 1 win away for Indonesia in last 12 was a 0-1 v Phillipines.
1.13 signals an easy time for Iran but questionable attacking stats.
5pm - Andorra v Armenia - 1.27 away - 4-0 in October 2010 for Armenia.Andorra have lost their last 12 at home and last 12 overall.
5pm - Azerbaijan v Belgium - 1.47 away - Belgium apparently the next bright young things and maybe dark horses for international and European competitions. 4-1 home win in March 2011 Euro qualifier at home.Azer have lost their last 6.azer have only 1 win at home in last 12 - a 1-0 home win.
Belgium are unbeaten in last 8 , 2 wins and a 1-1 draw with Turkey in Euro qualifiers.
7 away losses on the trot up to 2011 ends with WWWD and 4 clean sheets, 3 0-2 away wins v Kazakhstan, Russia, Austria.
5pm - Russia v FYR Macedonia - 1.24 home - 0-1 away win for Russia in October 2010 and lucky to get away with it - late missed FYR penalty.
Goal problems for the Ruskies. They scored 3 v Armenia, and in other matches, Russian scorelines have been 1-0 away loss, 0-0away draw, 1-1 away draw, 0-0 home draw, 1-0 home win.
6pm - Malta v Croatia - 1.17 away - 3-0 home win in November 2010 for Croatia should be replicated.Only 1 loss in last 12 for Croatia. Croatia have not scored in last 3 away, but should get back on track against a team with only 1 win in last 12 ( against Central African REp!!)
6pm - Turkey v Kazakhstan - 1.08 home - Yek Shamesh - Borat's boy likely to lose by 3/4 judging by the odds. - 3-0 away win in Sept 2010 Euro qualifier.8 wins in last 9 at home for Turkey augurs well. 2 wins only for kazak's away against Andorra and Estonia.
630pm - Luxembourg v Romania - 1.24 away - March saw Romania win 3-1 at home in a Euro qualifier. Luxembourg have lost their last 6, including 3 euro qualifiers. DLLDDWLL recently at home. Win 2-1 v Slovakia in a friendly. Draws all 0-0.
72nd minute winner v San MArino hardly compelling recent form but it was a friendly.
Romania have won 2 Euro qualifiers at home, but lost 1 away to Bosnia.
645pm - Hungary v Sweden - 1.94 away - Sweden at home are backable - worth investigating their away form.
7pm - Norway v Iceland - 1.38 home - Iceland's only wins in last 12 against Andorra and Faroes at home.Iceland have failed to score in 7 of last 9 aways which might hint at Norway opening the scoring here?
Norway are unbeaten in their last 5 at home. 9 wins, 1 draw and 2 1-0 losses at home in last 12 for Norway.
715pm - Bulgaria v England - 1.57 away -I see this away quote quite often with Rangers and Celtic away in the SPL ( most recently Rangers away at Motherwell, and similar quote Rangers at home to Hearts). It signals a tough game for the favourites with an eventual tight win/ score draw. - 4-0 for England Sept 2010 at home.England only lost 2 in last 11 - one in World Cup, the other 2-1 to France who deserved it in a friendly.
Bulgaria's most recent home matches have been 0-1, 0-1, 0-0. England have only had one draw in their last 12 away matches and have won 2 Euro qualifiers. If we negate the draw, the that gets rid of the 0-0's, can we expect a tight england win and the likelihood England will score first.
730pm - Netherlands v San Marino - unbackable Netherlands here, and commentator likely to be saying " we gave your boys one hell of a beating" - same price (none!!!) as Germany u21 yesterday who won 7-0. What can we take out of this? Enhance the bet with halftime/fulltime, Both teams to score NO , over 4.5 goals ( safe), over 6.5 goals ( speculative), hatrick (yes), correct score 7-0 ( should offer us some leeway but with this Dutch squad we could see double figures IF they wanted it - international sides tend to take foot off the pedal once comfortably ahead)
take your cues from Germany u21 yesterday.
745pm - Cyprus v Portugal - 1.33 away - he may be a large winker, but Ronaldo is still superb and there could be goals here. If the Cypriots operate a typical Greek like last stand, they could frustrate for a period. The Portugeuse have been known to be hit and miss at international level.
745pm - Faroe Islands v Italy - 1.09 away - The Faroes have been stubborn at home. Italy are largely a defensive set up so this could be tight early on. Is there leverage in Laying Italy? My only concern is that the odds may not move sufficiently even after a concerted period of 0-0.
745pm - Germany v Austria - 1.18 home - why could I not wait until today? German efficiency and at home should see them free and clear here. 1-2 in 2011 Euro qualifier saw germans score all the goals. Only 1 loss in last 12 for Germany. 6-3-1-4-1-2-3 scored by Germany at home recently, beating Brazil last match. Only 1 recent home loss v Australia at home.
6 losses in last 7 for Austria. Austria have not won any of their last 12 away and a recent 4-4 v belgium in a euro qualifier very intriguing.
745pm - Rep of Ireland v Slovakia - 1.97 home - home side eminently opposable I would suggest. 0-0 backable. Slovaks not as bad as you might think and should be stubborn defensively. 1-1 in last head to head in October 2010 - 6 wins, a draw and a loss for Ireland in their last 8 ( albeit not all competitive) b- 3 wins in last 4 for Slovakia includes 2 1-0 wins over Andorra.
3 of last 4 Irish losses at home in friendlies.2 wins in last 3 Euro qualifiers. Loss 2-3 at home v Russia. Beat Macedonia 2-1 and Andorra 3-1. I see Slovakia as tough opponents today . Back 0-0 initially if they frustrate?
745pm - Slovenia v Estonia - 1.36 home
745pm - Spain v Chile - 1.56 home - Barcelona, sorry I meant Spain, are good odds here . Being played in Geneva, and a feeling the manager may experiment. Torres upfront does not excite me at all.Pique and Puyol out .
Spain have never lost to Chile in any of their eight fixture; the Europeans have won seven of those matches, and drawn once
13 players named in the Spain squad to play Chile are from one of Barcelona or Real Madrid, the ratio 8:5 in the Catalans' favour.
Spain have dropped to 2nd in the Fifa World Rankings after their defeat to Italy saw Vincent Del Bosque’s fall behind the World Cup finalists Holland.
Chile are unbeaten in friendlies in 2011. Interesting headscratcher this one! Spain motivated to retain World No 1 status but the choice of Torres " cows arse - banjo" is a negative for me.
8pm - Albania v France - 1.44 away - historical french woes behind them now?
10pm - Ecuador v Jamaica - 1.49 home
4am - USA v Costa Rica - 1.54 home - USA usually good on the international stage and improving all the time.
US OPEN
4pm - Del Potro v Junqueira - 1.01 home - big guns are obliging with the 3-0 sets in early rounds
6pm - Ginepri v Isner - 1.13 away - Isner is trading gold. His serve is so strong that the majority of sets will be tie breakers and he rarely gets broken.
715pm - Mahut v Nadal - 1.04 away - is Nadal back on track? If so, can we trust 3-0 sets
8pm - Haase v A Murray - 1.09 away - odds creeping up slowly for Murray but he should dispatch this opponent. How to enhance the odds though?
115am - Roddick v Sock - 1.06 home - Roddick is shorter than he was in the first round.
350 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Storming Bernard, 3/1 Strident Force, 11/2 Pitt Rivers, 15/2 Representation, 16/1 Next Cry, 18/1 Amadeus Wolfe Tone, 28/1 Berwin, 66/1 Flatford Mill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STORMING BERNARD sets a useful standard on his second to a subsequent Group 3 winner at Newmarket and his runner-up effort off 87 on nursery debut and should be able to cash in on a good opportunity. 75-rated Pitt Rivers should run his race, but Strident Force was a promising fifth on debut at Ascot and could emerge as the main threat.[David Moon]
Beware 2 year olds at Brighton! But has Storming Bernard the experience to take on this undulating track? 4 under 25/1 currently makes this a superb probability race. 42322 for Storming is consistent.
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