back-lay-trade-horses-football: 20/9

For me today, Surfer and Emkanaat appeal, the latter at a slightly better price and in a 7 runner, 3 place race. In the football, hopes rest perhaps with Fenerbahce replicating their home form of last season. Blackburn look standout at the prices but team news required.

*****ONE A DAY - 320 Folkstone - Emkanaat to place only - 7 runners , 3 places, hope the probabilities are favourable here***** Please take Betfair SP and any price 1.23 or bigger.

Nice win for Sparta Prague, showing those clowns at Real madrid how to do it away from home.

Cup matches generally mean that team news, particularly for English teams, is vital nearer to kick off than when I am writing.

1230pm - Albirex Niigata (S) v Hougang - 1.36 home - Singapore Cup so no point doing indepth research.

30.07.2011	LC	Hougang United	0-0/p.4-5	Albirex Niigata (S)
07.07.2011	D1	Albirex Niigata (S)	5-1	Hougang United
18.04.2011	D1	Hougang United	1-0	Albirex Niigata (S)
15.09.2010	D1	Sengkang Punggol	0-1	Albirex Niigata (S)
18.06.2010	D1	Albirex Niigata (S)	1-1	Sengkang Punggol
29.05.2010	Cup	Sengkang Punggol	0-1	Albirex Niigata (S)

One anomolous result the 5-1 spoils a pattern of close fought matches.
Not much else to go on as we do not know how interested the teams are for a cup run.
2pm - FC Brasov v FCM Bacau - 1.37 home -Romanian Cup -Division 1 v Division 2A - again faith in the gulf in leagues? Both sides have haad a tendency for tight matches in their prospective leagues. Again tough to call in a Romanian League I have no real experience of.
230pm - Chrobry Glogow v Lech Poznan - 1 .39 away - Polish Cup and D3W v Division 1. A nice gap in leagues? Again faith in this gulf in leagues. A different day today comprising mostly of cup matches and so normal research is not valid.
230pm - Radoboj v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.05 away - Croatian Cup and Zagreb have been playing the likes of Real madrid recently. 1.05 signals, as you know, goals goals goals. Illiquid market most likely for this match but I would speculate on over 4.5 , over 5.5 goals or even higher . 7 clean sheets in last 12 and predominantly conceded only in European Competitions.
6pm - Fenerbahce v Manisaspor - 1.32 home - Besiktas easy home win at 1.41 may signal that market makers are getting the Turkish league right so early in the season?

05.02.2011	D1	Manisaspor	1-3	Fenerbahçe SK
29.08.2010	D1	Fenerbahçe SK	4-2	Manisaspor
13.04.2010	Cup	Manisaspor	1-1	Fenerbahçe SK
24.03.2010	Cup	Fenerbahçe SK	2-0	Manisaspor
14.02.2010	D1	Manisaspor	2-2	Fenerbahçe SK
30.08.2009	D1	Fenerbahçe SK	2-1	Manisaspor

In a day of Cup matches, this is a league match. And Fener tend to win head to heads at home. Last 2 matches see 3 and 4 goals scored.
Santos to arsenal and Emineke at £10 mil the biggest sale for Fener.
1-0 home win and 1-3 away win for Fener this season currently.
1-1 home draw with Trabonzspor and 1-0 away win v Orduspor for Manisaspor.
as it is so early in the Turkish season, perhaps a look at last season might increase confidence in a Fener win?League winners last year and at home 14 wins and 3 draws, 2 0-0's and a 1-1.
Against top 4 away last season, Manisaspor lost to 1st, beat 2nd ( Trab) 1-3, lost to 3rd 2-1 and lost to 4th 1-0.
6 of Fenerbahce's last 7 goals against Manisaspor were scored in the 2nd half.
Faith in last year's imperious home form for any involvement in this match so early in the season.
645pm - Feyenoord v AGOVV - 1.08 home - Division 1 v Division 2 and Feyenoord are in good form so far this season, but AGOVV have lost 10 of their last 12 . The odds expect goals here , and the form reflects that. 3/4 goal start I would say as long as Feyenoord do not make wholesale changes. Remember sub 1.20 equals plenty of goals.
7pm - Bennekom v Roda JC - 1.1 away - bennekom play in Hoofdklasse! Roda in Division 1 and the latter have made a poor start to the season. 4 defeats but an anomolous 2-1 home win against the might of Twente!
10 losses in last 12 for Benekom in Satb and SatA Hoofdklasse!
7pm - Excelsior 31 v Excelsior - 1.35 away - as with many of the Cup matches today, total disinterest in market makers as I write. 5 losses and a draw for the away side in Division 1 so far this season. Excelsior 31 are from the Topklasse league .
745pm - Aberdeen v East Fife - 1.22 home

08.01.2011	Cup	Aberdeen FC	6-0	East Fife
17.02.2009	Cup	Aberdeen FC	5-0	East Fife

Scottish League cup and emphatic wins , and good to see a 2011 head to head there. Immediately we could be looking at a win to nil.
Aberdeen have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches this season ( including one league cup).WWLDD in the last 5 matches though is promising for Aberdeen.
East Fife play in Division 2 and have only had the one draw in last 12 matches, which happened to occur in the last match they played.
LWLLLD so far in Division 2 for East Fife should make them vulnerable away to top flight side with only one loss in last 5 matches after a ropey start to the campaign.

745pm - Airdrie Utd v Dundee Utd - 1.44 away

23.09.2008	LC	Dundee United	2-0	Airdrie United
17.07.2007	CF	Airdrie United	0-3	Dundee United

Head to heads not really relevant as they were a few years ago.
Division 2 v Premiership - enough of a gap to make the 1.44 appealing for Dundee United?
Only one draw in last 12 for Aidrie United.
10 of last 12 matches over 2.5 goals, the exceptions both 2-0 scorelines.
4 wins in last 5 at home in all competitions for Airdrie. 3 losses at home in last 12, 2 losses v Livingston.
Airdrie have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 home matches, but how their opponents relate to Dundee United is hard to tell.
DWDLLDLW for Dundee United so far this season. 2 of those losses were against the old firm, and most recently 0-1 at home to Rangers.Dundee United scored 3 in the adjacent matches to this loss.
LLWLD most recently away for Dundee United is a bit ropey but do remember they are playing a different calibre of team to Division 2.

745pm - Arsenal v Shrewsbury - 1.26 home - psychologically, Arsenal must win this match, however meaningless it is in the grand scheme of things. Such a poor season so far needs a confidence booster. Wholesale changes in store for an Arsenal side who have lost against Man Utd, Liverpool and Blackburn ( scoring 2 for Blackburn)- not panic stations just yet, just bad luck I think, especially against Liverpool.
WWWLWWLW for Shrewsbury in their last 8 matches in all competitions - no draws.
A 1-0 very very lucky win v Swansea last home match followed a 0-2 loss to Liverpool so the restless Gunners fans want something to crow about.
Shrewsbury away have only drawn 1 of their last 12.

745pm - Leeds v Man Utd - 1.56 away - only 1 loss at home in last 12 for Leeds, and well we all know about United, but which United will show up tonight? Tough to get an angle in . Last head to heads 0-1 to leeds.
5 of last 6 Leeds home matches over 2.5 goals.
11 of last 12 United matches over 2.5 goals. 7 of last 8 United matches over 2.5 goals and the Benfica match the only exception .
Interestingly Man United have not had a draw in their last 19 League Cup matches and no draw in their last 8 away matches with form of WLLWLWWL.
22 matches for Leeds United in the League Cup and not a draw amongst them
No draw in 13 at home with form of WWWWWLWWWLWLW.
Lay the Draw anybody?

8pm - Blackburn v L Orient - 1.36 home - Premiership v League 1 and a Blackburn side very happy with their result v Arsenal.
Since the season started, reasonable home form for Blackburn - 1-2 loss to Wolves, 3-1 win over Sheff Utd in the League Cup, 0-1 loss to Everton after missing 2 penalties, and that famous 4-3- win over the Arse.
Again, quite amazingly, no draw in last 18 league cup matches.
And at home, 13/14 matches without draws, including last 10.
Only 1 win in the last 12 in all competitions for Leyton Orient, includes 3 draws in last 5 matches.
12 matches overall in the League Cup without a draw, and 6 away LEague Cup matches without a draw.
Team news vital for the Premiership side, and the likely home/away win to choose from, well the odds point to the home side. But we have seen in the past the " after the Lord Mayor's show" effect. Will that be apparent after the massive scalp of Arsenal at the weekend?

200 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cat O´ Nine Tails, 2/1 Indochina, 7/1 Tunduce, 10/1 Valantino Oyster, 14/1 Max My Boy, 25/1 Commander Veejay, 33/1 Goodmanyourself, 66/1 Sally Anne.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Indochina having something to prove in the visor, the safest option is top-rated CAT O'NINE TAILS, who won't get many easier opportunities to win a race this year. Tunduce could be the surprise package.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

8 runners, 3 places and 2 horses clear of the remainder. 5 under 25/1 in the betting forecast should make this a 5 horse race for 3 places. The negative? It is a seller.

Max my boy a non runner now which reduces the field to 7, 4 are under 33/1 which makes this a great each way race. Indochina the value now at 11/4 - 1.35 to place - still 3 places at Betfair.

230 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Surfer, 5/1 Ashwaat, 5/1 Byron Blue, 7/1 Rebel Song, 12/1 Nelson´s Bay, 20/1 Ardmay, 20/1 Bells Of Berlin, 20/1 Ellastina, 100/1 Eastlands Lad, 100/1 Firefly.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Godolphin's SURFER sets a clear standard on his placed form in 7f maidens but his stable-companion Rebel Song and Mark Johnston's Ashwaat need a market check.[Adrian Cook]

A 2 year old maiden sees a clear price gapper here and importantly this horse has had 3 runs , placing in all. Ashwaat the one to check in the market, coming from the Mark Johnston stable and a debutant.

4 under 12/1 here and Surfer retains strong price gapper status in the live betting

220 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Billyrayvalentine, 6/1 Sister Guru, 8/1 Invincible Dream, 8/1 Royal Blush, 12/1 Triggerlo, 14/1 Empressive, 16/1 Picura, 16/1 Sea Poet, 16/1 Stans Deelyte, 33/1 Masivo Man.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BILLYRAYVALENTINE (nap) was backed as though he was a cut above a 68-rated handicapper on his recent nursery debut at Sandown and he won with plenty in hand, despite a wide draw. He hasn't fared too well on that front here either but he still looks thrown in under a penalty and is expected to get the better of these rivals. Sister Guru could prove pick of the remainder.[Paul Smith]

A nursery is a 2 year old handicap and top rated Billyray is an eyecatching price gapper, and the booking of Dettori signals a tilt at another win. We might have missed the gamble last time though.

2 under 10/1 in the live betting makes Sister Guru each way value? At any rate BillyRay should have an outstanding chance of placing. 1.14 to do so under Dettori.

320 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Emkanaat, 9/2 Romantic Wish, 6/1 Mingun Bell, 8/1 Watch Amigo, 14/1 Cape Rambler, 14/1 Indian Art, 33/1 King´s Colour, 33/1 Taqaat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Romantic Wish and Mingun Bell should both run their race under these conditions but their merit is well established now and the same can't be said of EMKANAAT. It wasn't much of a race he won last time but he did it without breaking sweat and the fact he was sent off such a short price on his debut suggests he works very well at home. A mark of 80 isn't excessive on his handicap debut and there is potentially a good deal more to come from him.[Paul Smith]

9 runners, 4 under 14/1 in the betting forecast and a price gapper as favourite makes this an interesting race.

Still 4 under 14/1 in the live betting with romantic wish the value alternative. Emkanaat should plave though. 7 runners and 3 places and 1.23 to place ( under the circumstances I admit was was expecting shorter)

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