back-lay-trade-horses-football: 26/9

Football today it seems with slim pickings typical of Monday racing.

***** 710pm - St Gallen v Kriens - back St Gallen in the match odds at 1.17**** - dominating their new league - chance of winning run continuing.
Sparta Prague look good today albeit in a derby against a team with 3 draws in last 4. Etoile should win too. -possible speculative multiple?

Murtagh's horse got 2nd at decent enough place odds relatively speaking.

1230 - Etoile v Tanjong Pagar - 1.17 home
HEAD TO HEADS

27.06.2011	D1	Tanjong Pagar Utd	0-2	Etoile FC (S)
15.06.2011	Cup	Etoile FC (S)	2-0	Tanjong Pagar Utd
22.03.2011	D1	Etoile FC (S)	3-0	Tanjong Pagar Utd

2+ goal wins and clean sheets for 1.17 Etoile. 1.17 signals goals and the potential of a clean sheet. 1.17 though normally points to 3/4 goals at least.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 12th - 24 games for Etoile, 25 for Tanjong ( bottom of league)

HOME TEAM - Etoile

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWLWLWWWWLW - nearly a drawless run at home. Losses against 3rd, 4th and 9th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWWLWWWWDLLW - recent losses v 4th and 7th, and against Albirex, spanked 2-7 - an anomolous result or sign of a sudden defensive weakness? Etoile were 2-0 up in that home match!

GOAL TRENDS - 3-2-3-1-2-3 scored by Etoile in last 6 matches - 4 of last 6 matches they have kept a clean sheet. last 3 matchs overall over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 8 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw at home - an impressive 7 clean sheets - 2.08 scored, 1.17 conceded on average at home.

AWAY TEAM - TANJONG

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLLWLWLLLL - -wins both 1-0's against 8th and 11th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWLLLDLLLL - have failed to score in last 6.

GOAL TRENDS - have failed to score in 8 away this season and last 4 aways.

STREAKS - 4 match losing streak away and overall. No win in 8 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - looks clear cut and we seem to have a number of these apparent " clear cut" matches today. Another possible win to nil correct score bet?

330pm - Anzhi Makhachkala v Terek Grozni - 1.28 home - big money men play at home.
HEAD TO HEADS

20.05.2011	D1	Terek Groznyi	1-0	Anzhi Makhachkala
13.11.2010	D1	Terek Groznyi	1-3	Anzhi Makhachkala
25.07.2010	D1	Anzhi Makhachkala	1-0	Terek Groznyi

Pre big spend transfer market remember!

LEAGUE POSITION

HOME TEAM - ANZHI

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWDWLWWW - loss an 80th minute 0-1 v Zenit. Have scored 2 in 4 of last 5 matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWWLWDWL - I see inconsistency overall here and inconsistent teams are not good tradable teams.

GOAL TRENDS - 7 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws at home, 6 clean sheets. 1.2 scored 0.4 conceded on average - low figures likely to change with the arrival of Eto'o?

STREAKS - 4/5 home wins scoring 2 in each win.

AWAY TEAM - TEREK

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLLDLWDWWLL - sudden 4 match unbeaten run v 2nd( draw), 9th, 10th, 16th

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLDLLL - poor recent form

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 7 losses, 3 draws, 4 clean sheets - 0.75 scored, 1.75 conceded on average away

STREAKS - 4 away without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I am slightly unconvinced that Anzhi will be suddelnly all conquering, but there is no doubting that Eto'o is in a league which should help him fill his boots. I mean he was scoring for fun in La Liga ( albeit with better players in his team) - have scored 2 goals in 4 of last 5 home matches, winning them. Terek had a reasonable 4 match away unbeaten run, but then conceded 6 and 3 in their last 2 away matches and may be vulnerable to an Eto'o.

5pm - Kaliakra v Svetkavitsa - 1.27 home - LLLLL and LLLLL for both of these in the league leaves me scratcing my head how the home team can be favs and so short for this Bulgarian league match. A match to leave alone methinks.
6pm - AaB v Lyngby - 1.48 home
HEAD TO HEADS

06.05.2011	D1	AaB Aalborg	2-1	Lyngby BK
20.03.2011	D1	Lyngby BK	1-2	AaB Aalborg
19.07.2010	D1	Lyngby BK	2-4	AaB Aalborg

all head to heads overs and both teams scoring and Aab winning - pattern to continue today?

LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 11th of 12 - small leagues not ideal

HOME TEAM - AAB

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWL - loss 1-2 v 5th in the league.All wins by a single goal, 2 scorelines 2-1 and the other 1-0. In 3 of 4 matches, then, AAB have conceded .

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWDWDWLL - losses against 5th and 1st - just coincidence they happen to have played better teams last 2 matches. All draws away from home.

GOAL TRENDS - 6/9 matches over 2.5 goals this season. Copnhagen won 2-0.AAB have conceded in 7/9 matches this season so are vulnerable to at least a goal.

STREAKS - 4 at home without a draw, 3 overall without a draw. 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 4 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals.

AWAY TEAM - LYNGBY

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLL - again Lyngby may have lost but they have scored in 3 matches. Match that with AAB conceding in 7 of 9 this season.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - -LLWLDLLLL - win at home v Koge hardly a suprise - Koge getting beaten by all this season. Draw was a 1-1 home draw.

GOAL TRENDS - all away matches over 2.5 goals, conceding 2-2-3-4 and scoring 1 goal in 3 of the matches. A Naturalised over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in last 3 matches

STREAKS - 4 match losing streak away, no win in 6 overall, 3 matches without scoring.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the 2-1 scoreline pervades this match doesn't it? AAb have conceded in 7 of their 9 matches this season, AAB conceded in last 3 head to heads which they won, and Lyngby have scored in 3 of the 4 away matches they lost ( although they have not scored in their last 3 matches overall). This looks a tad obvious ? AAB to win , perhaps over 2.5 goals and watch out enhanced bettors as Lyngby might score first.

6pm - CSKA Sofia v Vidima Rakovski - 1.05 home 2nd v 12th in the Bulgarian league. 1.05 should equal plenty of goals but Betfair markets are likely to be illiquid.
6 match winning run in the league so far for CSKA
2 matches, 2 clean sheets, 2 wins at home.
LDLDLW for Vidima - twice losing 4-0 away in their last 2 matches. 9/12 away matches have seen Vidima fail to score.
Win to nil therefore today, the problem will be nailing how many CSKA are capable of scoring. 1.02 signals around 6-8 goals, 1.05 should guarantee 4 at least, and a possibility for more.
6pm - Galatasaray v Eskisehirspor - 1.52 home - only 3 matches played, no significant streaks , patterns so best left until the league gets a few more games under its belt.
630pm - Sparta Prague v Slavia Prague - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS

11.04.2011	D1	Sparta Praha	2-0	Slavia Praha
20.09.2010	D1	Slavia Praha	1-2	Sparta Praha
15.04.2010	Cup	Sparta Praha	0-1	Slavia Praha
12.04.2010	D1	Sparta Praha	1-0	Slavia Praha
01.04.2010	Cup	Slavia Praha	1-0	Sparta Praha
05.10.2009	D1	Slavia Praha	0-1	Sparta Praha

Tight until the last match

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 13th

HOME TEAM - SPArtA

RECENT HOME FORM - WWW this season s part of a 12 match home winning run .

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWWWW - nuff said

GOAL TRENDS - 2/3 overs at home - 3 wins, 1 clean sheet at home.2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded at home

STREAKS - 7 match winning streak

AWAY TEAM - SLAVIA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDL - draw v current 3rd in league

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWDDLD - 3 draws in last 4 a sign of defensive improvement? 2 0-0's.

GOAL TRENDS - conceded 2-2-0-4- in 4 away matches and failed to score in 3 of those matches. FAiled to score in 3 of last 4 overall.

STREAKS - 4 overall without a win, 3 away without a win

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - to me, Sparta should be shorter than 1.33 as this looks a very obvious match ( and sometimes very obvious matches can be dangerous!). Winning sequences will end eventually, but today? Remember, too head to heads. This is a derby match so might have a distinctly unique feel which makes the head to heads generally tight. I suspect Sparta would be the team to score first as Slavia have not scored in 3 of their last 4 matches. Look at the potential for a win to nil? 1-0, 2-0 3-0

710pm - St Gallen v Kriens - 1.17 home - swiss 2nd tier and perhaps not my first stopping off point. St Gallen are familiar - newly relegated? St Gallen have scored 2-5-3 in the league in their last 3 matches and this season are WWWWDWW - the draw saw them 2-0 up and go down to a penalty and a 93rd minute goal.
Although this league is not one I focus on, it seems, based solely on St Gallen, that they are enjoying the drop in levels and look set to turn the 1.17 into goals.
8pm - Norwich v Sunderland - 2.67 home - not a match I would usually entertain based on the odds, but a knee jerk reaction says that Sunderland should not be outsiders, particularly after dispatching Stoke recently ( albeit at home)
HEAD TO HEADS

24.08.2009

Norwich City

1-4

Sunderland AFC

Not really relevant as it was a league cup and the Sunderland team at least is much changed.

LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 13th after 5 matches

HOME TEAM - Norwich

RECENT HOME FORM - DL - draw 1-1 v Stoke City, and loss v Wigan. Draw v Stoke very unlucky - 90th minute equaliser. Sunderland is a team I would lump in with Stoke, Wigan, Wolves etc - "championship style" teams.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDLLW - 1-2 win v Bolton saw Norwich 0-2 up.

GOAL TRENDS - unders at home - as I said unlucky to concede v Stoke and 3rd minute Odemwingie goal seems out of the blue. On a positive note, Norwich kept them at bay for the remaining 87 minutes.

STREAKS - 2 at home without a win, 3 overall without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - Sunderland

RECENT AWAY FORM - DD - score draw v Liverpool and 0-0 v Swansea. Is the Swansea result a likely pointer to what is expected this evening against another newcomer?

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLDLW - win saw the new signings help secure the victory.

GOAL TRENDS - last 2 matches over 2.5 goals but also both home matches. Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 matches.

STREAKS - 2 match drawing streak away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - newcomers are always tough to evaluate until they have a number of matches under their belts against teams throughout the Premiership ( top, middle and bottom 1/3rds) - my instincts tell me to oppose Norwich ( perhaps covering the draw) as Sunderland and Bruce should have too much nouse for the newcomers. Plenty of Premiership experience in the Bruce team with Bramble, Brown, O'Shea, Cattermole, Larrsson, Bendtner. This might be another sob story for Norwich with a noble defeat after a concerted 0-0? Defences to dominate?

From www.premierleague.com

Norwich City team news

Norwich will again be without centre-half Zak Whitbread (hamstring) for Monday night's Barclays Premier League match.

Manager Paul Lambert has no fresh injury worries, and could freshen his team up after making half a dozen changes for last week's win at Bolton, with captain Grant Holt pressing for a recall.

Defenders Elliott Ward (knee) and Dani Ayala (both knee) remain out.

Sunderland team news

Sunderland manager Steve Bruce will again be without full-back Phil Bardsley for Monday night's Barclays Premier League trip.

Bardsley will sit out the second of four matches through suspension after being charged on video evidence with a second sending-off offence for the season during the 2-1 home defeat by Chelsea.

Bruce otherwise has no fresh concerns with midfielder David Meyler having played 45 minutes for the reserves in midweek, although he is not yet ready to return to senior action after a second serious knee problem, while Craig Gordon and Fraizer Campbell (also knee) continue to work their way back to fitness.

squads

Norwich City: Ruddy, Tierney, Barnett, R Martin, Naughton, Fox, Johnson, Hoolahan, Crofts, Pilkington, Holt, Bennett, Morison, Vaughan, C Martin, de Laet, Surman, Rudd.

Sunderland: Mignolet, Westwood, Brown, O'Shea, Richardson, Turner, Bramble, Laing, Cattermole, Gardner, Vaughan, Larsson, Colback, Elmohamady, Bendtner, Sessegnon, Wickham, Ji, McClean, Cook.

530 BATH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Paoletta, 9/4 Always The Lady, 11/2 Sky Crystal, 7/1 Hairpin, 12/1 Appeal, 14/1 Balandra, 20/1 Reluctant Heroine, 33/1 Brunston Keys, 33/1 Tetbury Lass, 100/1 No Refraction.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sky Crystal is an interesting newcomer but Paoletta and ALWAYS THE LADY are a cut above the standard usually found in Bath maidens at this time of year. With 1m2f form and a recent outing under her belt, Always The Lady is marginally favoured.[Stuart Redding]

2 2nds currently for Paolette - maiden fillies races can be difficult but faith in the short sequence consistency here?

210 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Alice´s Dancer, 9/4 Sardanapalus, 7/2 Kimbali, 10/1 Jay Kay, 14/1 Blue Shoes, 33/1 Landaho.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALICE'S DANCER has looked very difficult at the start on a couple of occasions, but she blew her rivals away on nursery debut last week and could be hard to catch under a penalty. The main danger is very lightly raced Sardanapalus, who is switched to a nursery after a skirmish in Group 2 company last time. [David Moon]

3 under 10/1 cannot be split price wise as I write - dare we assume the race will be between these 3 and therefore a good probability race as 2 place.

340 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Secrecy, 2/1 Penitent, 4/1 Field Of Dream, 9/2 Doncaster Rover, 25/1 Mr Rainbow.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SECRECY was a solid fourth in a Salisbury Group 3 last time, behind a front pair who both ran well in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile on their next start. He has decent form claims back in a conditions event and can improve his strike-rate to 6-15. Penitent looks the chief threat. [David Moon]

4 under 25/1 here - 2 places.

605 ROSCOMMON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 House Rules, 100/30 Foildearg, 7/1 Great Realief, 14/1 On A Jetplane.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Impossible to oppose HOUSE RULES, with the case in his favour strengthened by a couple of recent wins for the stable. Bumper and Flat winner Foildearg should follow the selection home if she jumps adequately. [Alan Sweetman]

Impossible to oppose but probably impossible to back in the place market

SHORTLIST