8/9

*****ONE A DAY - 1230pm - Tampines Rovers v Tanjong Pagar Utd - back Tampines Rovers in the match odds at 1.21.**** Speculators might look for a 3-1, 3-0, 4-0 win - Tampines should win with the minimum of fuss.




Very quiet day yesterday, although the 2 Czech giants won their Cup matches with ease.

1230pm - Tampines Rovers v Tanjong Pagar Utd - 1.21 home - I haven't been to Singapore for a while.
HEAD TO HEADS

30.05.2011	D1	Tanjong Pagar Utd	1-3	Tampines Rovers
10.03.2011	D1	Tampines Rovers	4-1	Tanjong Pagar Utd
05.08.2004	D1	Tampines Rovers	1-0	Tanjong Pagar Utd

Only 2 head to heads of relevance see Tampines clearly favoured.

LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 12th ( of 12) - a win takes Tampines provisionally top.

HOME TEAM - tampines

RECENT HOME FORM -WWDWWDWWLWLW - losses against 4th and 7th. Against 4th it took a 90th minute winner so unlucky losers there.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWLLWWLWW - recent losses against 4th, 1st and 7th. - Only 1 draw in last 17 matches.,

GOAL TRENDS 3 1-0's in the last 5 matches. 8 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 4 clean sheets.2.5 scored, 0.92 conceded on average away from home. Have scored 30% of goals in 80th-90th minute so looks ideal for traders if tight coming to the end of the match.

STREAKS - no draw in 6 at home. Last 3 draws 1-1's. Have scored in 12 of last 13 matches at home.

AWAY TEAM - TANJONG PAGAR

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLLWLWLLL - no draw away this season, either win or lose ( more likely lose)
7 times away failed to score and scored only 1 goal max in remaining fixtures. Failed to score in last 3 matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLLLWLLLDLL - wins against 9th and 11th, draws against 4th and 8th. Against 8th, it was 0-0. Failed to score in last 4.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 of last 7 matches overall were under 2.5 goals. 2 wins, 10 losses, 2 clean sheets away,0.42 scored, 2.42 conceded on average away. Have failed to score in the first half hour all season.

STREAKS - no draw in 12 away - only 2 wins away all season both 1-0's - they have only scored more than 1 goal once this season and that 2nd goal was an own goal!!

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this looks clear cut. Although I would like to put up a "to nil" scoreline of around 3-0, 4-0, I am concerned that Tanjong could score.

430pm - TPS v HJK Helsinki - 1.8 away
HEAD TO HEADS

22.06.2011	D1	HJK Helsinki	6-0	TPS Turku
06.05.2011	D1	TPS Turku	2-0	HJK Helsinki
25.01.2011	LC	TPS Turku	1-3	HJK Helsinki
18.10.2010	D1	HJK Helsinki	2-0	TPS Turku
25.09.2010	Cup	HJK Helsinki	0-2	TPS Turku
04.07.2010	D1	TPS Turku	0-1	HJK Helsinki

HJK struggled away last time, hence the 1.8 quote here.

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 1st

HOME TEAM TPS

RECENT HOME FORM - WLLWWWLDWLWW - 6 wins in last 9, 3 wins in last 4. Recent losses against 5th and 7th. Have beaten 2nd and lost against 3rd ( 2-3) at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLDDWDLDWDW - mixed bag overall. No consistency although unbeaten in last 4. Recent wins against 8th, 10th, 12th ( of 12) - last 4 draws away draws 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0

GOAL TRENDS - 8 of last 11 home matches over 2.5 goals. Highly consistent scorers at home, scoring 2-1-2-2-2-2-1-1-2-2-2-5 - if they continue this record then we have a chance at over 2.5 goals. 7 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw, 4 clean sheets at home. 2 scored, 1.33 conceded on average at home - naturalised over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - only 1 draw in last 12 at home.

AWAY TEAM - HJK

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLWWWWWLWW - pretty emphatic - no draws away this season. Losses against 4th, 8th and 9th - yes 2-0 loss at home to today's opponents. In all losses, HJK did not score. as they have had no draw, then the assumption is that if HJK do not score, they will lose.

RECENT OVERALL FORM- no draw at all this season - LWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWW

GOAL TRENDS - have failed to score in only 3 matches this season, losing them all. Have scored 2-2-5-3 in last 4 matches. 8 wins, 3 losses, 6 clean sheets. 1.91 scored, 0.73 conceded on average away.

STREAKS - no draw all season.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - an interesting match in which the home side have been consistently scoring at home - they have scored 2 or more in 9 of their last 12 home matches. Helsinki have not had a draw all season. They will win or lose therefore. And the general feeling is that if they score, they will win. They have only lost when they haven't scored. They are in solid form, so if we expect TPS to get a goal at least, then over 2.5 goals could be the call today. TPS score 38% of their goals in the 30-40 minute part of a match. A high %!!

6pm - Gefle v Malmo FF - 2.08 away
HEAD TO HEADS

23.06.2011	D1	Malmö FF	0-0	Gefle IF
15.08.2010	D1	Malmö FF	2-0	Gefle IF
28.03.2010	D1	Gefle IF	1-3	Malmö FF
24.09.2009	D1	Gefle IF	0-3	Malmö FF
29.04.2009	D1	Malmö FF	0-0	Gefle IF

Malmo seem to have enjoyed their visits to Gefle of late.

LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 8th - Gefle have played 22 games, Malmo have played only 20 - the rest of the league are around 23 matches played so Malmo are in a false position. They win 2 games and they are 4th in the league.

HOME TEAM - GEFLE

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWDDWWLLLD - a slide in last 4 matches. Losses against 3rd, 4th, 9th and 13th and if we assume Malmo should be about 4th, then perhaps we can assume Malmo will win today? Look at Malmo's scores at Gefle and note that 3rd and 4th beat Gefle 0-3 and 1-3 at home - EXACTLY the same scorelines as Malmo's last 2 visits.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWDDWDWWLLLLLLD - first 4 draws mentioned all 0-0's and last draw 2-2 v 5th. One of the 0-0's was at Malmo. Terrible run of form with losses against 3rd 4th 6th 9th 11th 13th . 2 wins against top 10 at home have been 1-0's

GOAL TRENDS- 45.5% over 2.5 goals at home.Score 0.9, concede 1.09 on average at home. Have failed to score in 3 of last 4 matches. Have conceded 2-3-3-5-1-2-2-2recently.

STREAKS - no win in 4 at home, no win in 7 overall - have failed to score in 3 of the last 4.

AWAY TEAM - MALMO

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLDDLLDDD - 5 draws and 3 losses in last 8 away. And if Malmo want to take advantage of games in hand they have to start winning away. against top 5 away it's DLLLD but against teams one position below Gefle and lower it's DDWWD - a suggestion that Malmo may draw this match worse case, and should not lose.

RECENT OVERALL FORM -DLLWDLWDDDWW - a nice run of late -4 wins and 3 draws in last 8 matches ending with 2 2-1 home wins. These draws have to end to see Malmo higher in league. In playing the 6 teams below Gefle home and away, it's 3 draws and 5 wins for Malmo.

GOAL TRENDS - 30% over 2.5 goals away from home. Small % down to 2 1-1's and 2 2-0 results . 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, the exception a 1-1.Have conceded and scored in all of last 4.

STREAKS - 8 away without a win - no defeat in 6 overall and have drawn last 3 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Gefle are surely exploitable by a team who are in a false league position. 2.08 could represent value here for Malmo - slight risk as their average scored away is only 0.90. 0-0 looks eminently backable for early 20 minute traders as gefle seek to stop the slide, and Malmo hope not to concede to give themselves a platform for a much needed win.

7pm - Valladolid v Gimnastic - 1.5 home
- Spanish Cup and 2 Division 2 sides, who obviously know each other. As yesterday, I prefer large gaps in the leagues before I get involved in Cup matches.


310 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Map Of Heaven, 9/4 Cheherazad, 7/2 Amazing Win, 14/1 Main Opinion, 33/1 Ellephil, 66/1 Dreamy Nights.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAP OF HEAVEN, with soft-ground form to her name, rates a safer bet then Cheherazad or Amazing Win.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 under 14/1 here and we are looking for horses with soft ground experience - as you read above, Map of Heaven the answer? Only one piece of soft ground form - 2nd on 26th August.

155 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Alanza, 100/30 Chachamaidee, 6/1 Flambeau, 6/1 Seta, 7/1 Dever Dream, 10/1 Jacqueline Quest, 12/1 Rimth, 20/1 Off Chance, 25/1 Magic Eye, 33/1 Crying Lightening, 33/1 Marvada.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The use of a hood has been the making of Chachamaidee and she is expected to confirm Goodwood superiority over Dever Dream, Rimth and Magic Eye despite her 3lb penalty. She should make another bold bid but preference is for the progressive 3yo filly ALANZA, John Oxx's first runner in Britain this season, who has shown a good turn of foot to win Listed events on her last two starts.[Adrian Cook]

7 under 33/1 here makes this a good race for an each way angle.

225 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Bogart, 8/1 Cockney Dancer, 10/1 Mehdi, 10/1 Reply, 12/1 Ladys First, 14/1 Betty Fontaine, 14/1 Top Cop, 16/1 Boris Grigoriev, 20/1 Alejandro, 20/1 Big Note, 20/1 Factory Time, 20/1 Rex Imperator, 20/1 West Leake Diman, 25/1 North Star Boy, 33/1 Campanology, 33/1 Letsgoroundagain, 33/1 Moon Pearl, 33/1 Whimsical, 50/1 Sea Odyssey, 50/1 Shevington, 66/1 Cryptic Choice.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Another big pay day could be in the offing for BOGART whose York form is already working out and he can emulate Wootton Bassett who won this prize last year after landing the big sales race at the Ebor meeting. Best of the opposition may be Mehdi, who also has a sales race win at Newmarket in the bag, the promising Top Cop and the lightly raced fillies Cockney Dancer and Ladies First.[Adrian Cook]

11/4 - - - - 7/1 price gapper here but it would be a brave man to see this as a banker - 22 runners - all 2 year olds!

300 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Set To Music, 3/1 Meeznah, 3/1 Sense Of Purpose, 10/1 Polly´s Mark, 12/1 Cracking Lass, 12/1 Spin, 25/1 Goldplated.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Meeznah showed her stamina at Goodwood and has other form to be taken seriously, but also has to bounce back from a poor show last time. It is not too hard to side instead with the hugely progressive SET TO MUSIC (nap), who will get much more of a stamina test than at York but was so impressive on that move up from 1m2f to 1m4f. Sense Of Purpose looks best of the rest.[Richard Austen]

can this race really be confidently reduced to the 3 horses under 10/1? If so then " talking horse" Set to Music must have strong credentials. Sit up and take note whenever a horse headlines the Racing Post.

500 EPSOM

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Deliberation, 4/1 Rutterkin, 9/2 I Got You Babe, 5/1 Blue Deer, 15/2 Saucy Buck, 10/1 Ceffyl Gwell, 20/1 Belle Bayardo, 25/1 Mirabile Visu.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Kevin Ryan seems to have found the key to DELIBERATION and he can complete a hat-trick at the expense of Rutterkin and perennial bridesmaid I Got You Babe.[Stuart Redding]

6/4 - - -- 5/1 price gapper deliberation. But do be careful with multiple handicap winners -their winning streak will end eventually as they are " handicapped out of it"

610 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fa´iz, 5/1 Berengar, 7/1 Kiwayu, 12/1 Tokyo Brown, 14/1 Yes It´s The Boy, 16/1 Three Am Tour, 20/1 Big Time Charlie, 33/1 Hector´s Chance, 33/1 Mexican Wave, 66/1 Captain Baldwin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Berengar and Kiwayu are open to improvement with a run under their belt, particularly the former who was making some stealthy late headway at Newmarket. FA'IZ sets a fair standard to aim at though and is taken to get off the mark at the third attempt.[Paul Smith]

An all weather 2 year old maiden race here with Fa'iz and Berengar dominating as 2 of 3 under 12/1 currently - but note race time. 5 debutants in the field and market moves for these must be noted as we approach 630pm rather than 1040am

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Tampines Rovers v Tanjong Pagar Utd - 1.21 home - there is no discernible weakness in the argument for backing Tampines Rovers today, and the potential for over 2.5 goals.

6pm - Gefle v Malmo FF - 2.08 away- speculators may see a vulnerability in a Gefle side who have suddenly started losing hand over fist.

As you would expect of a St Ledger meeting, Doncaster is extremely competitive. The one race I would be interested in is the 300 as this could be a 3 horse race for 2 places and talking horse, Set to Music , could be competitive for the place. - 1.82 for the place relates all you need to know about the competitiveness of this race. Sense of purpose intriguing for Weld/Smullen's visit across the Irish Sea. A perennial front runner is likely to be tradable back to lay in play.

500 EPSOM - another front runner in Deliberation and on a hatrick - one more go in him? The market thinks so, and we can hope that in an 8 runner race, he could have a chance of finishing in the first 3.