Given the huge gulf between the 2 Czech teams playing today, and the fact the match is in running, I will opt for this ( fully aware that I am essentially betting blind and relying on Sigma's status in the top flight in Czech football against a team in Group C of the 4th Level.
*****ONE A DAY - 4pm - Usti nad Orlici v Sigma Olomouc -Back Sigma Olomouc in the match odds market at 1.11. The match is in running ( speculators/traders might like to try an over 3.5 goals bet but be wary these markets are likely to be illiquid )
Rather obviously Al Muthanaa placed with ease. Personally I doubled up with Clijsters 2-0 set betting and she obliged at around 6pm at a nice 1.15 making a 1.22 day for me yesterday. Remember with the big guns in major tournaments, backing them to win to love in sets will pay off. It did so with Venus Williams, Roger Federer, A-Rod, and Soderling ( yes he was 2-0 up and you could have traded out then)
Johnstone Paints Trophy - that time when the football world's heart beats fast in anticipation - is upon us today and is immediately avoided as a betting medium.
4pm - Usti nad Orlici v Sigma Olomouc - 1.11 - Czech Cup match and Usti were beaten 4-0 by Sparta Prague this time last year so same expected today.
Sigma are unbeaten in their last 5 August matches, drawing 2 and winning 3 +2.5 asian handicap start is extremely positive vote for away side.
This match is in running and , although we are betting blind ( i.e. motivation for Sigma as regards the Cup? Weakened side? Unknown opponents ? State of the pitch? Weather? ) expectation is for Czech top division side to easily prevail. Enhance bet with goals bet ( optimistic over 3.5 goals given the 1.11 quote)
TENNIS - US OPEN
515pm - Hajek v Fish - Fish is 1.04 to back and while I don't bracket him with the names mentioned above, why is he so short, and is he reliable at those odds to produce at least a 2-0 so we can trade. 1.4 is relatively big for a 1.04 shot to win 3-0 sets , compared with, say, Roddick yesterday at 1.27. 82nd v 21st in the world and no head to heads. Hajek could easily win a set in a tie breaker here as there is not an eye-popping difference in ranking. Fish is, importantly, American and that may be the reasoning for what I see as too short a price about him.
6pm -
Troicki v Djokovic - 1.12 Djoko. One of the dependables returns in Novak. 47th v 3rd in the world. Importantly, Troicki has twice taken a set off Djoko without winning the match. This can be, logically, replicated again. 1.89 for 3-0 tells the full story. 4th favourite for this tournament is Novak and that 1.14 is quite high for one of the big boys in an early round ( compare with 1.02 and 1.03 for Roddick and Clijsters)Here I would adopt a match odds only bet and suspect that Troicki might be Tricky and at least win one set. If he wins the first set, then pile into Novak at enhanced odds.
830pm - Nalbandian v De Voest - 1.04 Nalbandian - 33rd against 231st in the rankings is the kind of gap you want to see, as compared against 21st v 82nd!!
Head to heads - one win for Nalbandian 6-0, 6-4 on hard in 2006 - too long ago to be of any real significance. 1.44 for 3-0 in sets is certainly tradeable if Nalby wins first set but again is high when compared to Roddick's 1.27 ( he dropped 7 games only in 3 sets)
915pm - Kucova v Zvonareva - 1.04 Zvonareva - again with the ladies it is the first to 2 sets which makes life a lot easier for us. 1.23 ( illiiquid betting market) for 2-0 set betting is of some appeal but I need to see head to heads.
6-0, 6-2 in French Open in 2008 for Vera. 119th v 8th in the world. Has a good chance of 2-0 in sets for Zvonareva.
MIDNIGHT - Nadal v Gabashvili - 1.02 for Nadal - around 1.3 for 3-0 in sets to Nadal. 1 v 93 in the rankings and the difference is immeasurable.
2 head to heads in 2009 read 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 and 6-2, 6-2 so apart from that slight blip at 6-4, Rafa should replicate Roddick's straight sets victory yesterday with a similar scoreline ( barring injury - old nobbly knees Nadal as he's called on the tour)
2am - Wozniacki v Gullickson - 2nd in the world v ? ( woman's tour site says 9999 in the world but that is not right) 1.16 for 2-0 to Wozniaki looks reasonable enough ( but is illiquid at present - with such a big tournament you can always get prices with bookies)
350 NEWTON ABBOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Swiss Art, 5/1 La Soie, 6/1 Django Reinhardt, Natures Way, 14/1 Miss Molly Moses, 16/1 Lilly Royal, 20/1 Don Jose, Hurst Park, 25/1 Top Tide, 33/1 Mr Demister.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It wasn't much of a race that SWISS ART won here last time but connections have unearthed another beauty. |
Looks like a typical Monday card on a Tuesday!! Soft ground at 2 venues makes life interesting. Swiss Art is now 1/2 in the live betting market which is always a positive sign. Only 4 under 20/1 in the betting for this novice's hurdle.
7lb claimer on this favourite but has a record of 321 on the horse in its last 3 runs, most recently a win on soft . Looks an obvious contender to place with that caveat that must always be repeated - the horse must complete of course.
410 LEICESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Midnight Caller, 7/1 Miss Chicane, 10/1 Miss Villefranche, Slight Advantage, 12/1 Etarre, Magic Of The Sea, 14/1 Azlaa, 66/1 Ihavenotime.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There was plenty to like about MIDNIGHT CALLER's debut effort and although the softer ground is an unknown, she looks the one to beat. Marybell was similarly profiled yesterday ( i.e. debutant on soft ground) and won very well when priced to do so. Midnight caller is now 1/3 " the one to beat despite the ground being an unknown" . This is a classic 8 runner ( well 7 now) and 3 place race so we should have some leeway with 3 places for a favourite who may underperform on the ground. Only lost on debut by jinking at the sight of the paddock exit on sole run so, IF handling the ground ( and the betting market foresees no problems) , should place with ease in this maiden. 430 RIPON BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Abzolutely, 5/2 Cuddly, 6/1 Silver Angel, 7/1 Gunalt Joy, 9/1 Breezolini, 16/1 Kinlochrannoch, Maunby Rumba, 25/1 Snow Legend, 100/1 Immacolata.
430 RIPON - I am tempted to take a chance on this Abzolutely today given 1) the horse is consistently placing in similar company and over today's trip. 2) the horse was run in listed company 2 races ago - interesting. 3) Good ground at Ripon is far more preferable to soft ground elsewhere. Illiquid betting market but around 1.15 to place. There are some potential improvers and a 2nd favourite who is a debutant and , as ever, could be anything. Add to this the fact these are 2 year olds over the minimum trip and it makes this race one where positives and negatives balance. 610 SOUTHWELL - simple lucky dip race between 3 likely contenders for 2 places. Hoodie has been supported but the significant early money is for Old Money, all red at time of writing and 15/8 in places. Needs reviewing nearer the off as the market could help decide which of the 3 to back to place. Great probability race though with Hoodie the obvious fly in the ointment. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST 4pm - Usti nad Orlici v Sigma Olomouc - 1.11 - despite the unknowns mentioned earlier, it is the fact that this is an in running match which appeals. As does the asian handicap which begins at +2.5 goals ( expectation for 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 result here) 4 draws and a win in their last 5 away matches for Sigma were against top flight opponents Homke team are in Group C of 4th level in Czech football 6pm - Troicki v Djokovic - 1.14 Djoko - this is likely to be a battle for the World Number 3 and so I would look to the match odds market only here but expect the 4th fav for the US Open to prevail eventually. Could be one of those games where the 1.14 for Djokovic increases in running.2am - Wozniacki v Gullickson - 2nd in the world - looks by far the most solid 2-0 set betting match handed to us today. A long wait though ( 2am) and a question as to when we actually place our bets as the market is illiquid at present. 430 RIPON - it is the consistency of Abzolutely that appeals here, but then it is the fact this is a 5 furlong 2 year old maiden that puts me off. Worse case scenario, there are likely improvers here and 2 debutants ( one is 2nd fav and we could assume fills one of the 3 places on offer) Only one real outsider too at 50/1 ( next best is 14/1 and that is not really a traditional "real" outsider price. -------------------- NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address. http://www.cliveoneaday.com ------------ Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk. ---------------- One A Day oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181 ------------------------- Canonbury Publishing Ltd Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS Registered office address: Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94 |
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