This leaves Kim Clijsters, favourite for the US Open and winner last year at 1.02 against Arn in this first round. First to 2 sets and this looks well within Clijsters' grasp for this early round. 1.12 to around 1.14 for 2-0 sets to Kim Clijsters looks a good bet.
Al Muthanaa represents Hills and the colours of Hamdan Al Maktoum and these colours I have noticed being very prominent in maidens recently.
*****ONE A DAY 300 RIPON - BACK AL MUTHANAA TO PLACE ONLY AT AROUND 1.07*****
What I am personally going to do today is take advantage of Kim Clijsters Match BUT with only trading in mind .i.e. if she breaks early and wins the first set, the 1.12 - 1.14 2-0 set betting odds should reduce considerably ( liquidity in the market willing)
Barca look to be reliable betting propositions this season, while Real Madrid continue to draw games they should win, although Mallorca at home look to be as formidable as last season under Michael Laudrup.
FOOTBALL
3pm - Alfreton Town v Stafford Rangers - 1.35 home - head to heads draw in 2010 and wins for Alfreton in 3 2009 head to heads. Alfreton are scoring bucket loads in this Conference league, 4,2,5,5,1,2 in last 5 matches. Stafford seem to keep things tight if not winning. Last 5 matches have seen 2 1-0's, a 1-1, a 2-2 and a 2-0 win. Only match odds at Betfair - I would have liked a goals bet.
3pm - Luton v Hayes & Yeading - 1.31 home - head to heads 2010 is an 8-0 win for Luton and previous to that a 3-2 away win for Luton. Luton have lost their last match, and drawn the previous one to that. Yeading have lost their last 2, conceding 7 in total. Again I would like a neutral goals bet. This game is amazingly in running and over 1.5 goals is 1.17 which sees both teams playing for us.
4pm - Vidima Rakovski v Levski Sofia - 1.26 away - head to heads back to 2008 signals home side is promoted. Head to heads from 2008 point at comprehensive wins for Levski by an average of 3 goals. 1.31 over 1.5 goals is very interesting and looks suspiciously big for an asian handicap market starting at +1.5 goals. Home side have drawn last 2 home matches followed by a 1-0 loss so do put up some resistance, and as has been the pattern this season, promoted sides have surprised when meeting their more illustrious opponents for the first time ( Caen, Cesena to name but 2) IN RUNNING - consideration in backing Levski to trade if they lead at any time.
5pm - APOEL v Ermis - 1.26 home - APOEL have won their last 5 head to heads including 3 home wins, by 5-0, 1-0, and 3-0 in 2010 and 2009. This is the natural reason behind the price in this Cypriot league match. APOEL have been plying their trade in Europa League early rounds with some success and would seem to have that competitive edge. Yet again another season opener today. Just the match odds available.
745pm - Bologna v Inter - 1.65 away - if this was Mourinho's Inter then maybe I could entertain backing to lay off if they lead at any stage, but as this is the Fat Spanish Waiter's Inter, I think I had better watch and wait. There is no doubting he has some talent in that squad such as Snjeider and Et'oo - it remains to be seen now tactics will impact Inter. Inter beat Bolgona home and away 3-1 and 3-0 so have clear advantage. Bologna could not beat the top 4 last season.
9pm - Atl Madrid v Gijon - 1.53 home - Madrid have lost one and drawn in 2010 head to heads - the loss coming in a friendly. 11 home wins, 5 losses and 3 draws last season. It was Madrid's away form that held them back. Gijon away last season only won 2, drew 6, and lost 11. Clear edge for Athletico - again a season opener.
TENNIS - US OPEN
4pm - Davydenko v Russell - 1.12 Davydenko. He has had a solid year and is expected to progress past this first round .
515pm -
Soderling v Haider Maurer - 1.02 Soderling - as ever in these first rounds, can we simply default to set betting? Around 1.29 for 3-0 - set betting is a lot less straightforward than the first to 2 format. Very tradeable if Soderling wins the first set ( or even breaks first)6pm - Arn v Clijsters - again Kim is unbackable but this is only first to 2 sets - a very illiquid 1.18 ( perhaps go to bookmakers rather than betfair, BUT trade still via betfair if she wins the first set)
715pm - Robert v Roddick - around 1.3 for 3-0 sets
115am - Dabul v Federer - 1.22 for 3-0 sets but remember Federer has uncharacteristically made life difficult in some early rounds this season.
From the above, logic dictates that the women's set betting is easier - the first to 2.
200 EPSOM
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Noonenose, 4/1 Winged Valkyrie, 5/1 Aciano, 7/1 Sylas Ings, 14/1 Barathea Dancer, John Biscuit, Torun City, 16/1 City Legend, 20/1 Valley Tiger, 25/1 Investment World, 33/1 Rowan Ridge, 50/1 Oetzi.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Well-bred Winged Valkyrie is likely to leave her Kempton debut effort behind but may meet her match in NOONENOSE who is the pick on form and has an experience advantage over most of his rivals. Fav is one of those with 2 2nds in a maiden, should remain consistent if we can trust 2 year olds of course. Callan a new jockey today and one of only 4 under 12/1 - 1.31 to place. 235 DOWNPATRICK BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Crevelea Lass, 3/1 Golan Guy, 7/2 Blue Turk, 6/1 Academic Accolade, 8/1 Holyrood, 10/1 Pandim, 14/1 All On Board, 20/1 Kaiser So Say, 33/1 Floor It. Golan Guy has leapfrogged into favouratism for Ruby and Tony Martin. 300 RIPON BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Al Muthanaa, 5/1 No Thank You, 12/1 Apache Warrior, Three Bay Leaves, 20/1 Fear Factor, 28/1 Norville, Roman Sioux, 33/1 Green Army, Saffron Hick, Seven Sons.
Al Muthanaa is a huge price gapper, 1/3 now and " stands out" for the Hills. Only 5 under 25/1 and only 6 under 50/1. Up in trip to 1 mile having run n2nd in 6f and 7f. These colours have been very impressive in recent maidens. Fear Factor is a potential each way steal market mover into 12/1 320 WARWICK BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Marywell, 4/1 Surface Tension, 7/1 Pickwick, 12/1 Aneel, 14/1 Ahaazeeg, 33/1 Mexican Jay, Najca De Thaix, Raghdaan, 50/1 Millie Mops.
|
455 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Deorai, 13/8 Manacor, 5/1 Sixty Eight Guns, 16/1 Six Silver Lane.
Bolger/Manning and Weld/Smullen on the obvious 2 for 2 places. 68 guns is the fly in the ointment. Manacor I actually fancied at Killarney but he was terribly disappointing so perhaps default to Deorai as a likely placer?
520 RIPON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Broadway Dancer, 7/2 Frontline Phantom, 5/1 Egmarey, 6/1 Magic Millie, 13/2 Sharakti, 15/2 Dazakhee, 10/1 Layla´s Boy, 40/1 Petrocelli.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This can go to BROADWAY DANCER. |
Of interest given this is 8 runners and 3 places. 2 significant market movers, all red, in Frontline Phanton and Dazakhee.
730 GALWAY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Clearwater Bay, 11/4 Stephen´s Green, 4/1 Perfect Gemstone, 6/1 Clear Alternative, 10/1 Regresa A Mi, 20/1 Fisherpond, Hows The Chap, 25/1 Flywing, 33/1 Drummanmoremaster, Eva´s Star, 50/1 Ember Jack, 66/1 Jacks Choice.
Significant non runner in 2nd favourite sees Clearwater Bay for Murtagh/O'Brien a strong market leader and obvious place contender.
"improvement a formality you would hope." - generally the consensus with Ballydoyle juveniles. One run -a 2nd place- was on the all weather and we must remember these are 2 year olds so turf might either show the horse up in a good light or regress the horse. that is the risk we take with little run 2 year olds.
SHORTLIST
3pm - Luton v Hayes & Yeading - 1.31 home - this is IN RUNNING and over 1.5 goals is around 1.16 which involves both sides. Tradeable with an early goal and a hope Luton can replicate a small part of their 8-0 win last time. I would insist on monitoring as this is a conference match and I am not au fait with the comings and goings day in and day out in this lowly league.
4pm - Vidima Rakovski v Levski Sofia - 1.26 away - promoted v big boys - another shock? I would take advantage of the in running aspect here and back Levski to lay off if they lead at some stage.
9pm - Atl Madrid v Gijon - 1.53 home - have an inform strike force the home team so a chance perhaps to back at 1.53 in the hope they lead at some stage to again trade out. Caution - opening match of season ( look what happened to the other Madrid yesterday)
515pm -
Soderling v Haider Maurer - 1.02 Soderling - 5th in the world is Soderling and having a good season. Soderling is 5th favourite in the betting to win. He should win all 3 sets it is hoped. Around 1.27 for 3-0 to Soderling ( as mentioned earlier there is always a risk with first to 3 setters)6pm - Arn v Clijsters - around 1.12 to 1.14 for 2-0 set betting for Kim Clijsters - Clijsters is the favourite for the US open and 1.02 to win this match. Should be a formality one would hope.
300 RIPON - Al Muthanaa looks rock solid here and there are no ground concerns luckily at Ripon. 1.31 to win and 1.07 to place. Up in trip from 6 furlongs and 7 furlongs to a mile today - that is the only niggle I would have, but if not winning, should place at least for a stable and owners who have had a good strike rate in maidens of late.
320 WARWICK - Marywell looks of great interest were it not for this soft ground factor which does not sit well with maiden juveniles.
730 GALWAY - only mentioned because the 2nd favourite is a non runner which opens things up for Clearwater Bay for O'Brien/Murtagh who must be respected. Need to view this market nearer race time.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
3pm - Luton v Hayes & Yeading - 1.31 home -over 1.5 goals but would have to insist upon trading. A big concern is that this is a conference match and these lowly leagues are not the best betting propositions.
6pm - Arn v Clijsters - around 1.12 to 1.14 for 2-0 set betting for Kim Clijsters - the ladies only play in first to 2 sets which is far more preferable to first to 3 sets in the men's game. 1.02 in the match odds market and the current US Open Champion, Kim Clijsters surely can win this without dropping a set in the first round.
300 RIPON - Al Muthanaa - an obvious bet today in the absence of anything remotely as solid as Barcelona FC. 1.07 is reasonable I suppose.
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