Football wise, I wish the Czech under 21 match was liquid as this is a great one a day opportunity.
Wales should have far too much for Luxembourg but I would actually see Iceland as the best of the bigger priced football bets.
*****ONE A DAY 230 SALISBURY- BIG ISSUE TO PLACE***** 1.08 available
This evening Iceland look worth a gamble at 1.28 despite me knowing little of their squad and if it is a strong squad. Remember this is a friendly but it is in running so I shall back in the hope they score first.
In fact, the shortlist of the shortlist looks strong today. Watch out nearer kick off for Czech under 21 goals market becoming liquid.
One a day is Big Issue, but I am interested in Iceland too to trade, Wales ( back 0-0 as cover to match odds backing of Wales), Czech under 21.
Job done in 2nd half yesterday.I was disappointed that I did not put up Leeds yesterday as they played 1st team. Meanwhile QPR made 5 changes and paid the price.
FOOTBALL
11am - Russia U21 v Latvia U21 - 1.17 home - one of those out of hours bets, too early for the message but likely to come in. One head to head - 4-0 in Sep 2009 is still recent enough to be of relevance. +2 and +2.5 asians IN RUNNING
4pm - Litex Lovech v Beroe Stara Za - 1.35 home - head to heads are far too indecisive for me to nail colours to Litex's mast.
5pm - Czech Republic U21 v San Marino U21 - unbackable literally so look to halftime/fulltime and goals markets. asian handicap +3 to +3.5 says it all. Any potential play here is ruined by terribly inefficient , illiquid markets. I would have looked at over 2.5 goals and czech/czech halftime/fulltime - 8-0 in June 2009 so perhaps over 3.5 goals ( IS IN RUNNING SO TRADEABLE) Away side have conceded 8,6,5,6,3 without scoring in their last 5 away matches.
Bet365 go 1.08 ht/ft and 1.05 over 2.5 goals and only 8/1 on 7-0!!
Hopefully the markets will be liquid as this is a great opportunity
6pm - Cyprus v Andorra - 1.22 home - it would seem that Andorra are one of those international sides immediately opposable. Collateral form with Albania where Cyprus lost 6-1 and Andorra only 1-0. Caution perhaps? These sides have never met before - asians point to easy Cypriot win by 2 or 3
6pm - Estonia v Faroe Islands - 1.37 - ditto Faroes? although at home they are tough to beat. IN RUNNING
6pm - Finland U21 v Spain U21 - 1.42 away - this is a qualifier and 2 head to heads read 1-0 and 2-0 to Spain so may be worth laying them early in the match away from home.IN RUNNING
6pm - Liechtenstein U21 v Netherlands U21 - 1.04 away - see argument re Andorra.3-0 Nov 2009 augurs well and this is a qualifier - again I would look to goals market perhaps to enhance the odds -betfair v illiquid
715pm - Czech Republic v Latvia - 1.45 home - Latvia a tight outfit away from home, in their last 4 friendlies so scope for laying home side to trade.
745pm - Wales v Luxembourg - 1.28 home - 2-0 back in 2008 and +2.5 goals for Lux head start signals what the market thinks. IN RUNNING.
8pm - England v Hungary - 1.32 home - England seem layable at those odds
830pm - Iceland v Liechtenstein - 1.28 home - look dependable enough at home against a side who have been comprehensively beaten in their last 5 away - lost 2-0 in 2009 head to heads
TENNIS - Benneteau v Djokovic - 1.13 Djoko -2nd round of Rogers Cup 2010
00.30 - Nadal v Wawrinka - 1.09 Nadal
HORSERACING
230 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Big Issue, 5/1 Signs In The Sand, 7/1 Buddy Miracle, 8/1 Danceyourselfdizzy, 12/1 Farlow, 14/1 Basilica, 20/1 Hero From Zero, 25/1 Fists And Stones, Glanusk, Sluggsy Morant, 33/1 Another Laugh, 50/1 Ginzan, 100/1 Appyjack.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for BIG ISSUE to get off the mark following his highly encouraging Goodwood debut. |
2nd fav is a non runner and this fav is now 1/3. Hannon/Hughes fav and only 1 run - 4 debutants and 4 1 time outers in opposition could, worse case scenario, surprise.
Sluggsy Morant a big mover into 8/1
325 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Lordship, Sir Mozart, 9/2 Catherines Call, 7/1 Rough Rock, 8/1 French Art, 9/1 Cheddar George, 10/1 Maze, 14/1 Hazzard County.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LORDSHIP will relish any give in the ground and is back on a fair mark. |
Sir Mozart is a Curley horse.
430 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Major Monty, 7/1 Dreamacha, 8/1 Hellenio, Monsieur Pontaven, 12/1 A Pocketful Of Rye, Force To Spend, Nurai, Satin Princess, 14/1 Marafong, 16/1 Lady Brickhouse, 20/1 Zelos Spirit, 25/1 Mororless, Rileys Crane, 33/1 Dovedon Diva, Franki J, The Midshipmaid.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MAJOR MONTY ran his best race to date when second at Carlisle last time and he can get off the mark in a race more about quantity than quality. |
Price gapper here and on the brink, perhaps , of a winning sequence in Class 6 0-55 handicaps.
450 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dhan Dhana, 11/2 Sharakti, The Caped Crusader, 13/2 Saint Thomas, 8/1 Magic Millie, 10/1 Meetings Man, 16/1 North Shadow, 28/1 Irish Eyes, 50/1 Both Ends Burning.
| DIOMED VERDICT: DHAN DHANA is reappearing quickly after her impressive seasonal/handicap debut at Folkestone last week but she didn't have anything like a hard race and should be well up to defying a penalty. |
Price gapper seeking to exploit lenient handicap mark.
515 GOWRAN PARK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Treasure Beach, 5/1 The Reaper, 6/1 Cannon Hill, File And Paint, 16/1 Seavelvet, 20/1 Lisselan Hostess, 25/1 Painted Fingers, 33/1 Alpha And Omega, Hollymount King, 50/1 Fair Alanne, First Friday, Hangar Five, Ryguhl, 66/1 Flymont, Hope Of Ten,
Murtagh/O'Brien fav in a race where only 4 are under 20/1 and 5 under 33/1
Maiden and fav has had 1 run only.
555 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Park´s Prodigy, 5/1 Aegean King, Into The Light, 6/1 Roydmore, 10/1 Maybeme, Tae Kwon Do, 12/1 Gosforth Park, 16/1 Banquet, 33/1 Follow The Sun, Princess Aliuska, 50/1 Behest.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PARK'S PRODIGY arrives here on the top of his game and should be tough to beat. |
Price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap but big move for Tae Kwon Do
635 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Noonenose, 5/2 Marzante, 5/1 Mr Perceptive, Tanfeeth, 10/1 Geordie Iris, 16/1 Gay Gallivanter, 20/1 All The Evil, 25/1 Norse Blues, Torun City, 50/1 Cantonese Cat.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MARZANTE finished in front of form pick Noonenose on his debut and is worth the chance to confirm the form. |
Original fav is a non runner - surely this makes life a lot easier for Marzante?But only had the one run in this maiden where 4 are debutants .
710 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Asraab, 5/1 Whirly Dancer, 13/2 First Cat, Oil Strike, 8/1 Rule Of Nature, Thrill, 10/1 Brick Red, Wear ´Em Out Wilf, 16/1 Merchant Of Medici, 20/1 Planet Red, Rolling Hills.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ASRAAB was well supported to make a winning debut then and given how that form has worked out, might well be the one runner here well ahead of his mark. |
Fav is now a big price gapper in the live market 13/8 - - - - - -7/1 and has Frankie onboard. Looks to be a handicap debutant and these can be hit and miss.
745 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Warning Song, 4/1 Weathervane, 6/1 Ostentation, Valiant Knight, 8/1 Scottish Boogie, Seaside Sizzler, 10/1 Paintball, 14/1 Blitzed.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WEATHERVANE may have more to come now moving into handicaps and not many of these are still on an upward curve. |
Weathervane is now 6/4 favourite in an 8 runner race -3 places
825 GOWRAN PARK
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Councilofconstance, 3/1 Phrase, 9/2 Sliabh Na Mban, 5/1 Edallora, 10/1 Sweet Dreams Baby, 12/1 Caradan, Melodie D´Amour, 14/1 Syann, 20/1 Enough Is Enough, Siul Alainn, 25/1 Dbass Accountants, 33/1 Fox´s Field, Inspired Dream, She´s Our Rock, 50/1 Brosna Tied, Mine The Post,
There are 2 ballydoyle horses here so why is stable number one Murtagh on David Wachman's Councilofconstance? A hint maybe?
SHORTLIST
5pm - Czech Republic U21 v San Marino U21 - I just hope the betfair market gets liquid as this could be a good one a day opportunity. I would be looking to over 3.5 goals and halftime/fulltime
6pm - Liechtenstein U21 v Netherlands U21 - 1.04 away - again if the market was a bit more liquid I would consider goals bet here.
745pm - Wales v Luxembourg - 1.28 home - Bale playing? Bellamy playing? Surely have players who play consistently at a much higher level?
830pm - Iceland v Liechtenstein - 1.28 home - I think that, although no footballing powerhouses themselves, Iceland should win at home against a side who do not travel well.
Benneteau v Djokovic - 1.13 Djoko 3-1 head to heads - only dropped one set in last 3 wins over Ben.
230 SALISBURY - obvious maiden alert - Hannon /Hughes Big Issue was 1/2 length 2nd in a class 2 last time out - analysis"he should be extremely tough to beat in similar company next time, before stepping up in grade"
1.33 for the win and 1.08 for the place. Next best is 12/1 and this market is only interested in Big Issue.
Remember though he is still a 2 yr old - Sluggsy Morant a huge market mover.
450 BEVERLEY - huge price gapper, strong in the market.Dhan Dhana showed sudden improvement last time - was that an anomoly? 1.23 to place.
710 SANDOWN - Asraab interesting on handicap debut.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
If the betfair markets become more liquid then Czech under 21's goals would be a good one a day contender as would Netherlands v Leichtenstein
Benneteau v Djokovic - 1.13 Djoko -2nd round of Rogers Cup 2010 - now 1.14 and looks in great form at present - has won last 3 head to heads - on at around 5pm - 6pm - check
745pm - Wales v Luxembourg - 1.28 home - I would cover this with a 0-0 bet to cover stakes on backing Wales in the match odds. The only way I see them failing could be a 0-0.
With 0-0 at odds of 16, if backing Wales to win for £100, I would have to stake £7 on 0-0 to cover the £100 stake
830pm - Iceland v Liechtenstein - 1.28 home - a degree of solidity about Iceland recently makes them solid enough this evening.
230 SALISBURY - Big Issue is backed to the exclusion of anything else, and despite being a 2 yr old, should win, and thus place -trainer has only positive words to say, and drop in class to class 4 should see him place at 1.08
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