Again, though I think the football might provide the better odds this evening. SHORTLIST
630pm - PSV v Sibir - 1.18 home -extreme confidence in PSV with asian handicap starting at +2 goals -Any Russian side though will be tough opposition, but reliance on home side outscoring opposition ( 12 goals in 3 games in the league) -1-0 to Sibir is a good incentivisor for PSV
735pm - The New Saints v CSKA Sofia - 1.63 away -slightly risy as they are 3-0 up and away from home. I could lay New Saints here at 6.4 if CSKA play first team ( ahrd to find info)
745pm - Birmingham v Rochdale - 1.37 home - all 1.37 Premiership teams won by 4 or more last night - will Brum continue this? I would trade this match
745pm - Lille v FC Vaslui - 1.35 home - back Lille in match odds with 0-0 insurance cover bet?
745pm - Man City v FC Timisoara - 1.15 home - extreme confidence, likely squad rotation may see no Tevez and a degree of patience before a breakthrough. 1-0 away win means clean sheet will suffice for City
So who is the most solid of the above?
***** ONE A DAY - 630pm - PSV V Sibir- back PSV in the match odds at 1.17 - in running but unmanaged market. I chose this match as PSV have a goal to chase , where Man City /Lille/CSKA do not. I hope this will be enough incentive for them to succeed at home. In running as ever means we can trade out if PSV lead at any stage.*****
Again this looks a good evening football wise and a start , for me, with Skanderborg v FC Midtjylland - 1.01 woth Bet365 and up to 1.09 with Betfair and over 2.5 goals has a bit of cash at 1.11 - a bookie quoting 1/100 should ensure goals galore.
Well done Spurs , doing precisely what you would expect against a team from a Swiss league of only 10 sides. Yet again the Danish Cup delivered with the 2 games highlighted - it is such a consistent competition as far as getting on favourites and enhancing match odds with goals bets.
FOOTBALL
5pm - Lokomotiv v Lausanne - 1.3 home -IN RUNNING - 1-1 from the first leg and quite a swing in odds in favour of the home side in this 2nd leg. Lausanne Sport look to be Cup winners as they are in D2 Swiss Challenge League. Home side should be too much for them as they play in aRussian league getting stronger with greater financial investment. BUT Lokomotiv have lost their 2 August home matches in the League, albeit they did score 2 in their last match. Difficult to ascertain the strength of this Lausanne side.
5pm - Skanderborg v FC Midtjylland - 1.09 away - Danish Cup but again very very illiquid
5pm - Vanlose v FC Nordsj - 1.26 away - Division 3 v Division 1 - prices this time are on a par with the bookies so no edge with Betfair.
630pm - Levski Sofia v AIK - 1.46 home - 0-0 from the first leg and bookies are expecting home advantage to be decisive. Yes, Levski look good at tome, scorelines recently of 3-0, 3-1. 5-2, 6-0 at home augur well ( latter 2 were in earlier Europa League rounds against opposition of dubious quality)
AIK's recent away form is 1-0, 3-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-0 - poor form. AIK are coming from the Champions League where they were easily dispatched by Rosenborg ( the 3-0 away score above).
630pm - PSV v Sibir - 1.18 home - we know that PSV, when similarly priced in Holland , deliver the victory and some goals thrown in. What about Europe against unknown opposition? Ill tempered 1st leg saw 2 sending offs and a late goal for 1-0 to Sibir. We cannot really gauge Sibir as they stand with PSV from this match, and the market makers are emphatic that PSV will show their true colours at home. And with good reason. Home form in the league sees a 3-1 and 6-0 victory so far in August, and away from home, PSV won 3-1 so that's 12 goals in 3 Dutch League games. Sibir have lost their 3 August away matches which included an away loss to Apollon Limassol 2-1 ( and I suspect PSV are a little stronger than Apollon Limassol)
Last 4 away games for Sibir have all been over 2.5 goals and we already know about PSV's liking for the Onion Bag. Overs goals bet? Asian Handicap market starts at +1.5 which signals a heavy bias towards PSV scoring ( as does the sub 1.20 match odds)
This match is IN RUNNING BUT UNMANAGED
7pm - AEK v Dundee Utd - 1.38 home - 1-0 to AEK - they have the away goal ( I am not sure if away goals work in the Europa League) -this is likely to be another tight affair and difficult to predict - IN RUNNING
7pm - Stuttgart v Slovan Bratislava - 1.28 home - 1-0 to Stuttgart away from home. 2-0 loss away in the Bundesliga not the ideal start for Stuttgart.Stuttgart have scored 2 in all of their last 5 home matches, and against some decent enough sides. Away side come from the Slovakian Corgon Liga - nowhere near as strong as the Bundesliga I would surmise. +1.5 to +2 asian handicap is pretty positive for Stuttgart. IN RUNNING
735pm - The New Saints v CSKA Sofia - 1.63 away - question of motivation here for CSKA Sofia after a comfortable 3-0 home win. That said, Anderlecht were in the same position and won 3-1 away at the New Saints and won 3-0 afterwards at home. I would prefer to see CSKA at home as there would have been more pressure on them to win regardless of the apparent comfort of their current scoreline. IN RUNNING UNMANAGED MARKET - will CSKA field a weakened side? They are clearly superior and 1.62 could look a big price ?
745pm - Aston Villa v Rapid Vienna - 1.47 home - 1-1 in the away leg but I cannot get out of my mind the recent tonking by the Toon - 6-0 is a humiliation! Milner has gone as , it would seem, is the spirit. Home advantage tonight for Villa . Beat 3-0 in their last home match ( but then by Sunday League side could have beaten West Ham) . Villa do not look to be in a good place at the moment. Premiership is clearly superior to the Austrian LEague and that is what we could be relying upon tonight. IN RUNNING
745pm - Birmingham v Rochdale - 1.37 home - Premier League v League 1 - and the Premier League boys are delivering against their lower league colleagues in the past 2 days ( bar Wolves , but they scored 1st ) - a strong Birmingham side will win. Brum have scored 2 in their 2 league matches thus far which augurs well. Tgradeable I suspect in the hope Brum lead at some stage in this match. Cautious Asian Handicap begins at +0.5 and extends to +1.5 - IN RUNNING - manager team news on the game tonight is subscriber only at the website.
745pm - Juventus v Sturm Graz - 1.24 home - 2-1 away win for Juve in first leg ( only thanks to a late 90th minute winner so not that flattering) and expected to consolidate at home in a match that is not over yet. Italian season yet to start so we cannot really gauge how Juve are, and have to rely on reputation and odds. +1.5 to +2.5 asian handicaps and the market expects an easy Juve home win by 2 minimum and 3 or more maximum. IN RUNNING
745pm - Lille v FC Vaslui - 1.35 home 0-0 first leg which is the story of Lille's season so far - 1-1, 0-0 and 0-0 in the French League. What happened to the Lille of last season who scored 3 or more in 10 of their home matches in the French league. They seem to be having trouble finding the Onion Bag this season Yes, the French League should be too much for the Romanian League but Lille are woefully short on goals to make them a viable betting proposition. Perhaps , though, we can employ the West Ham bet ( back the 0-0 cover while backing Lille in the Match Odds market) IN RUNNING UNMANAGED MARKET
745pm - Man City v FC Timisoara - 1.15 home -1.-0 away win for City was expected and I think it was a relatively weakened side. These guys expected Champions League football this season, and are in the process of trying to buy the Premiership. Still look like 11 individuals rather than a gelled team but there is no argument re their dismantling of Liverpool at the Weekend. WWW.FUTBOL24.COM IS DOWN as I write but as there are only 3 games left to analyse, I can use Betdevil.
The asian handicaps start at +2 so the market makers expect a goal bonanza. IN RUNNING
815pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Gyori - 1.42 home - 2-0 away win for Zagreb is perhaps not as final as a 3-0, and I suppose still requires work at home. Clearly the superior team in this clash, 1 goal to no reply should be enough for Dinamo to go through. IN RUNNING
830pm - Porto v Genk - 1.25 home - 3-0 away win for Porto tells us they are way ahead of this plucky Belgian side, and unlike CSKA Sofia, Porto's 2nd leg is at home so expect them to put a show of sorts for home support despite questionable motivation. Porto have won their last 10 home matches .Genk won 9 of their last 10 matches until Porto turned up.
210 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Intrusion, 11/8 So Is She, 6/1 Elusive Prince, 14/1 Music News.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Official and RP ratings indicate that SO IS SHE would be conceding a couple of pounds to Intrusion rather than the other way about and she may have the edge with her promising apprentice taking off 5lb. |
Intrustion is one of those maidens like Engulf who accumulate 2nd places ( and Engulf was 2nd yesterday again) Music News is the mover, for Fanning/Johnston. Should be a 3 horse race for 2 places?
220 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Happy Today, 11/4 Marzante, 4/1 Mark Harbour, 5/1 Cobbs Quay, 10/1 U A E Storm, 20/1 Embezzle, Mirradores, Norse Blues.
| DIOMED VERDICT: With further rain forecast MARK HARBOUR can put his experience to good use and see off some promising rivals. |
With Happy Day out, the logical next step is Marzante to place? Ground may be a concern today - good to soft is the official verdict but I would prefer to see and hear for myself via at the races or the Racing Post live reporter.
240 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Volcanic Ash, 9/2 Eilean Mor, 15/2 Mini Bon Bon, 10/1 Miss Cosette, 12/1 Fleet Captain, Microlight, Shy Bird, 16/1 Ajaafa, Dark Times, 20/1 Cool In The Shade, Dotty Darroch, Peters Spirit, 25/1 Aprication, Whats For Pudding, 33/1 Whipperoo.
| DIOMED VERDICT: VOLCANIC ASH has been given a real chance by the handicapper on his nursery debut and is preferred to Eilean Mor. |
A bit simplistic but a Fanning/Johnston favourite and , on that basis only, worth an interest. This is a 2 year old nursery though.
250 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Humdrum, 5/2 My Little Star, 13/2 Bint Mazyouna, 10/1 Carrignavar, 16/1 Saint Helena, 25/1 Burst Of Stardust, Duquesa, 33/1 Luv U Too.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HUMDRUM looks the one to be with after her finishing with some purpose to take second at Windsor. |
Enable put up a solid performance yesterday for Hannon/hughes - more of the same from Humdrum? BUT the horse has only run on good and good to firm. Yet again, I need confirmation regarding the ground.
400 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Lang Shining, 11/4 Daniel Thomas, 8/1 Bookiebasher Babe, 10/1 Battle Study, 14/1 Dora Explora, 16/1 Rainsborough, 20/1 Guppy´s Girl, Red Willow.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LANG SHINING is by far and away the most likely winner of a bad race. |
2nd favourite is a non runner which should make Lang Shining's job a lot easier. 1.08 to place in a 6 runner race for 3 places .
A class 6 claimer and 1/2 currently - an obvious place only shout here.
425 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Pires, 3/1 Auenschutze, 11/2 Stakers, 6/1 Hasaratan, Miss Fancy Pants, 8/1 Hamalka, 10/1 Royalfolie, 12/1 Jowango, 16/1 Nordic Hawk.
Ruby has been riding sparingly these past few days but still has managed a win or 2 . Pires is his ride for Tony Martin . Auenschutze has 4 2nds, albeit in flat races. And, saying that, Pires last 2 runs have been on the flat.
445 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Della´Alba, 5/2 Gala Spirit, 6/1 Sanan Dancer, 8/1 Whiskey Talk, 12/1 Sovereign Secure, 16/1 Shemovedthuthefair, 20/1 Phoebe Van Gelder, Regal Purple, 25/1 Ted Dolly, 33/1 Mo Saoirse, 66/1 Lady Antebellum, 100/1 Igowithyou, Lady Diva.
Front 2 to dominate?
635 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Dream Champion, 6/1 Ahorsecalledmolly, 8/1 Ballochroy, Bandama, Manger Hanagment, Wreckitman, 9/1 Irish Poli, 14/1 Equation, 16/1 Bernabeu, Blaze Trailer, Caffeine Craze, Jawad, Molly´s Boy, 20/1 Square Ball, 25/1 Coliseum, Saddler´s Native,
Walsh/Martin combo now 5/2
750 TIPPERARY
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Bob Le Beau, 11/8 Flying Cross, 12/1 Vitruvian Man, 16/1 Emmpat.
Flying Cross for Murtagh/O'Brien could be in with a place shout in this 4 horse/ 2 place race
SHORTLIST
5pm - Skanderborg v FC Midtjylland - 1.09 away - this should continue the goalfest in the Danish Cup so over 2.5 goals a ready option.
630pm - Levski Sofia v AIK - 1.46 home - strong home form for Levksi against a side already failed in the Champions League early rounds.
630pm - PSV v Sibir - 1.18 home - old faithful in the Dutch League and priced to continue the solid 12 goals in 3 league matches form this evening. First match a mishmash - both sides had a man sent off and Sibir won 1-0 with a 90th minute goal.
7pm - Stuttgart v Slovan Bratislava - 1.28 home - not over yet -1-0 Stuttgart from first leg - asian handicaps wholly positive, but inauspicious away loss to Mainz in Week 1 of Bundesliga.
Have scored 2 in each of last 5 home games - perhaps back Stuttgart with the 0-0 insurance cover given the tight first round.
735pm - The New Saints v CSKA Sofia - 1.63 away -CONUNDRUM -stick or twist? 3-0 already for CSKA and they are quite clearly the better side. Playing a weakened side tonight? I don't know. 1.63 could be backable in the hope CSKA score first or lead at some stage. IN RUNNING UNMANAGED MARKET
745pm - Birmingham v Rochdale - 1.37 home - All Premiership sides have been pretty emphatic against lower league opposition, I think because they have been drawn at home. Brum are good enough to win with ease with a strong team out and I cannot verify this as the info from the website is premium content.
745pm - Lille v FC Vaslui - 1.35 home - ideal candidate for the 0-0 insurance bet as this was 0-0 in the first leg, and Lille have 2 0-0's and a solitary 1-1 in 3 league matches. So , like West ham, back 0-0 with enough money so if it is 0-0, you win the equivalent of the stake placed on Lille
745pm - Man City v FC Timisoara - 1.15 home likely we will see the strong squad as Europa League is better than nothing ! Should be miles ahead of this lot and 1-0 away , the job is not yet done. Asian handicaps starting at +2 are usually good indicators.
Rain forecast at Ffos las means I cannot get an accurate angle on ground at time of writing. Racing Post points to soft ground and likely to get softer. Good idea to take advantage, for those who can follow the racing, of non runners creating superb probability bets.
220 FFOS LAS - for instance, is now 6 runners and 3 places but there is a question mark over Marzante's ability to handle the surface ( despite his obvious chance of placing)
250 FFOS LAS - Humdrum would be a probable one a day selection if it were not for the soft ground. Remember these are 2 year olds and could easily put in a shocker on differing ground to what they have already encountered.
400 LINGFIELD - 2nd favourite is a non runner and this Lang Shining looks to have an outstanding opportunity of placing here in what has become a 6 runner race for 3 places
3 over 16/1 and a horse in decline, hence now running in class 6 claimers but still retains enough solidity to place at least. 1.08
750 TIPPERARY - Flying Cross has positive market vibes, albeit 7 hours prior to race time and is making a belated return. A race to return to nearer the off
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
5pm - Skanderborg v FC Midtjylland - 1.09 away - 1..01 with bet365 so this 1.09 is a steal. If the 1.01 quote with Bet365 is accurate then this should ensure over 2.5 goals with relative ease. 1.12 with Bet365, watch out for anything bigger on Betfair. As things stand, anything remotely near 1.09 on Betfair is a bargain.
630pm - PSV v Sibir - 1.18 home - messy first round 1-0 to Sibir is in no way indicative of that team's abilities. Market expects a return to form for PSV - 12 goals in 3 league games and priced again to score plenty at home.
Right noises from the PSV camp.
735pm - The New Saints v CSKA Sofia - 1.63 away - The New Saints look layable at 6.4 this evening against a team quite clearly superior to them as the 3-0 first round will attest.
745pm - Birmingham v Rochdale - 1.37 home - Premiership teams have been free and clear generally in these early cup rounds, the only anomoly is Wolves but they importantly scored 1st and this looks another tradeable game to back Brum and lay if they lead at any stage.
745pm - Lille v FC Vaslui - 1.35 home - I just see this as a back of Lille with a 0-0 insurance bet. 0-0 and we break even
745pm - Man City v FC Timisoara - 1.15 home - extreme confidence from the market. There will be 4 changes and Ballotelli is not playing. too much strength in depth to think that those 4 changes will weaken City. Could take time to make the breakthrough.
FFOS LAS has potential softening ground and the 2 maiden races I highlighted may see the juveniles not giving their best
400 LINGFIELD - Lang Shining looks standout here at 1.08 to place in what has become a 6 runner race for 3 places.
750 TIPPERARY - 4 horses and 2 places and Flying Cross could place for ballydoyle despite an absence.
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