With a week til Week 1 of the Bundesliga I would hope Eintracht Frankfurt are in top gear and will take this game seriously and cultivate a psychologically helpful win before match 1.
*****ONE A DAY - 600pm - Wilhelmshaven v Frankfurt - - Back Eintracht Frankfurt in the match odds at prices between 1.14 and 1.18 - we are still beating the bookies. This match is in running so we have options, as always, to trade out should Frankfurt lead at any stage, or indeed, back Frankfurt at higher odds should they go behind at any stage*****
Another full house from the shortlist of the shortlist yesterday was very pleasing.
530pm - St Polten (Am) v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.08 away side - austrian cup -should be easy for away side.Probably go with any bookies who are pricing this up as Betfair is very illiquid - bet365 goes 1.22 halftime/fulltime which for a side 1/20 with those bookies should be accomplished ( but they are away from home and the key is to win in 90 minutes.
Over 2.5 goals is 1.2 with bet 365
600pm - CFR Cluj v Astra Ploiesti - 1.3 home -Romanian first division and 1-0 for both sides in last 2 head to heads tells all. 1.3 indicates what the market thinks, but form tells me not to get involved.
600pm - Wilhelmshaven v Frankfurt - 1.18 home - Regionaliga Nord v Bundesliga in the German Cup and with domestic competition starting next weekend, there should be nothing stopping Frankurt from playing their first XI. IN RUNNING - asians off +2.5 and +3. Frankfurt faired well in their friendlies , beating Chelsea along the way. Looks a good bet.
745pm - The New Saints v Prestatyn - 1.29 home - 0-1, 5-0, 1-4 all New Saints wins in 2009 and 2010 in head to heads.
Concern re the tight scoreline last time but they are priced to perform more like the other 2 scorelines.
815pm - Braga v Portimonense - 1.37 home - start of the Portugeuse season and sees contenders v promoted. I draw your attention to Marseille v Caen on the french opening day regarding placing faith in what SHOULD come about form wise compared to what might happen when a pumped up promoted side's opening match is against one of the big boys.
IN RUNNING and I will try to watch this match if betfair offer it and then decide whether to go with the odds or not.
220 NOTTS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Enthusing, 6/4 My Freedom, 10/1 Elusive Love, Fimias, 20/1 Chokidar, 25/1 Supermarine, 66/1 Major Return.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Enthusing sets a decent standard but preference is for newcomer MY FREEDOM, who is from a yard that is more than capable of getting one ready first time. |
I was going to enthuse about enthusing who is a short head and a neck 2nd in both starts but Supermarine looks to be strongly fancied into 7/1 to perhaps threaten the dominance of the obvious 2 market leaders for the 2 places on offer.
245 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Gifted Apakay, 9/4 Luv U Noo, 7/2 Excellent Day, 6/1 Just The Tonic, 20/1 Coolella, 33/1 Colamandis, Kirkby´s Gem.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Not much between GIFTED APAKAY and Luv U Noo at the weights and preference for the former is marginal. |
2 non runners leaves only 5 for 2 places and 2 of those 5 are 33/1 or bigger! Great probability race.
440 NOTTS
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Forest Runner, 3/1 Taqleed, 6/1 Floridita, 14/1 Swiftly Done, 20/1 Chief Storm Eagle, 33/1 Gypsy Style, Smashing Brasses, Swingle, Tasza, 66/1 The Chester Giant.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FOREST RUNNER has shown more than enough in two starts to suggest he's the one to beat in this uncompetitive event. |
Now 1/3 and one of my fav jockeys onboard makes this favourite an obvious place contender.
555 TRAMORE
BETTING FORECAST: EvensF Scots Gaelic, 5/4 Zanoubiya, 10/1 Dallacia, 14/1 Jacks Choice, Mary Spring Rice, 16/1 Muy Picante, 20/1 Doonmore, 33/1 Timely Haven.
Only 3 under 20/1 in the live betting.
820 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ragsah, 5/1 Star Concert, 6/1 Fly By White, Winged Valkyrie, 12/1 Silbury, 14/1 Rosa Midnight, Secret Love, 16/1 Talkhees, 20/1 Memory Lane, 25/1 Disturbia, Gypsy Legend, 33/1 Notify, 50/1 Luv U Too, 100/1 Avon Causeway.
| DIOMED VERDICT: RAGSAH sets the standard here and with the extra furlong likely to suit, she can prove too strong for these rivals. |
Like the earlier Godolphin maiden fav, this one has come 2nd last twice, has Dettori onboard, and is currently odds on.
TENNIS
730pm - Nadal v Kohlschreiber - 1.09
SHORTLIST
600pm - Wilhelmshaven v Frankfurt - 1.18 home - beat Chelsea in a decent pre season run and have the Bundesliga next weekend so must be in tip top condition. 1.11 with Ladbrokes so this 1.18 is generous for Frankurt and I think should be exploited. Not only this, but the match is in running for you traders.
815pm - Braga v Portimonense - 1.37 home - won all but one solitary draw at home last season and take on newcomers this time in their first home match. Against bottom 4 sides scored 2 once and 3 3 times ( I am presuming Portimonense are going to be in the bottom 3)
I have no firm stats re the away side promoted this year, and am wary of a Marseille v Caen opening day fiasco but Braga, 2nd last year having lost only 3 matches ( all away to top 6 sides) should have too much. Trading an option here too, as could be our ability to watch the match for the first few minutes before deciding
245 NEWCASTLE - only 3 under 33/1 for 2 places but the front 3 are tight in the betting market. A lucky dip race this one. Chose one and you know it has more probability of placing than not ( assuming the 33/1 shots run to their prices)
440 NOTTINGHAM - Forest runner is 1.36 to win ( which is tempting ) and 1.09 ( currently in an illiquid market ) to place in a race where only 3 are under 20/1. Has Ted Durcan onboard who is Mr Dependable for me.
555 TRAMORE and 820 KEMPTON as ever need market inspections nearer the off.
730pm - Nadal v Kohlschreiber - 1.09 - Rogers Cup continues this evening and Nadal is the same price as yesterday when he won in 2 sets - warning - I am to tennis tipping what George Bush is to literacy.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
600pm - Wilhelmshaven v Frankfurt - 1.18 home - 1.10 with bet365 and 1.11 with Ladbrokes makes this Betfair price a steal ( as someone has already noticed by taking a wedge of it). This leaves, £1299 at 1.17 , and £837 at 1.16 ( at time of writing) and this still beats the bookies.
1 week before Bundesliga and good pre season would, I suggest, show us Frankfurt fully tuned up.
440 NOTTINGHAM - Forest Runner is, admittedly , in a maiden but is battered into 1/3, and unlike Squires Gate, has good form in the book and Ted Durcan. Only 3 under 20/1 and 3 of the one time outers potentially open to improvement are 50/1 or bigger.
1.09 guide price - probably wait til nearer the off -it has been a bit hit and miss of late getting a better price early ( Apt manor yesterday) and a better price near the off with Big Issue the other day
--------------------
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
------------
Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
----------------
One A Day
oneadayclive@canonburypublishing.com
Subscription Line: 0208 597 0181
-------------------------
Canonbury Publishing Ltd
Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainualt Road, Little Heath,
Romford, RM6 5SS
Registered office address:
Canonbury Publishing Ltd, Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ
Registered in England No: 193 7374 Vat No: GB 629 7287 94
No comments:
Post a Comment